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The All Blacks over the past three to four years have developed a game where they will often surrender possession and rely on their defence, kick return and aerial ability.
This allows them to counter attack, beat the defence and score points.
So it’s uncommon to find the All Blacks in the positive ledger when reviewing match statistics. Statistics are often not an entirely accurate account of how well or how poorly they played.
Usually the All Blacks exploit their line breaks and convert them into tries, so these statistics are glossed over.
But since Stuart Lancaster and Steve Hansen have taken the reins of their teams, a curious statistical pattern has emerged in the three Tests that have been played between these two sides. Admittedly we’re dealing with a small sample, but nevertheless the team that leads the match across the usual statistics loses the game.
Everyone remembers the 2012 Test at Twickenham, it was a great English victory. On that day England out All Blacked the All Blacks. England trailed the All Blacks in several categories. New Zealand recorded 53 per cent possession and 55 per cent territory and 23 more ball carries.
However England made 10 clean line breaks to the All Blacks 7 and their breaks finished deep in the red zone where the All Blacks conceded six penalties and a drop goal. Both sides did score three tries but despite England trailing for possession and territory, they created more opportunities to score and took them.
Last year at Twickenham, the All Blacks surrendered territory and possession to England, carried the ball 92 times to England’s 135 but made 5 clean line breaks and scored three tries. England only recorded one clean line break and one try, but they were able to create pressure forcing the All Blacks to concede penalties to keep them in touch.
Last Saturday, New Zealand trailed England in territory, possession, line breaks, ball carries, defenders beaten, offloads and metres gained. The difference was the higher number of turnovers England conceded,18 to 12.
Tactically England were better than the All Blacks, but they couldn’t convert any of those line breaks into tries.
When the biggest margin during the match was only six points, it was always going to be a try that would break the deadlock. Currently the try tally favours the All Blacks in their last three Tests against England by seven to four.
This Saturday is shaping up to be a fascinating contest, with so many more variables to contend with from both teams. What will be equally fascinating to me is if this statistical pattern continues. Does the winning side need to lose the major statistical categories to have a real chance?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.