We hear a lot about how important the first game is in a World Cup.
With the first round of group games kicking off over the next few days, its worth having a look at historically how important the first game is to a team’s chances of progressing to the second round and even further in the competition.
There are a number of very important games being played in the first round of games in this World Cup. There is particular significance for a number of teams, particularly those involved in these clashes: Spain versus Netherlands, Germany versus Portugal and England versus Italy.
To understand the importance of the first game to a team, we need to have a look back at how teams have fared having won, lost or drawn their first game in a World Cup.
If we look back at the past four World Cups, which all had 32 teams in the group stage followed by a round of 16 in the second stage, 84.8 per cent of those who won their first game progressed to the second round. For those who drew, 56.8 per cent progressed, whereas only 8.7 per cent of those who lose their first game progressed.
Teams losing their first game and progressing has happened a total of four times in the past four World Cups. Spain lost to Switzerland in 2010 and went on to win the World Cup. Ghana lost to Italy in the 2006 World Cup made the round of 16. Ukraine lost to Spain in the 2006 World Cup and then went out in the quarter finals to Italy. Finally Turkey lost to Brazil in the group stage of the 2002 World Cup and then went on to claim third place after losing the semi-final again against Brazil.
Conversely, there have been 42 sides that have lost their first game and not gone on to make the second round.
Teams that win their first game go through to the second round 84.8% of the time, which makes sense considering teams only play three games in the group stage. There have been seven teams that have won their first game and not gone through to the second round, but this is outweighed by the 39 teams that have.
Lastly, 56.8 per cent of teams that achieve a draw in the first game of the group stage go through to the second round. Even though the difference between losing and drawing is only one point, the difference in the percentage of teams which go through to the next round is huge.
So what significance do these numbers have on the group games coming up over the next few days? Well most would know the importance of not losing your first group game, so it’s likely that those games which are highly anticipated are going to be tight with neither team willing to open up too much.
Spain v Netherlands
In the 13 World Cups Spain have played in, they have drawn the first game three times, lost it six times and won it four times – they are not great starters.
The Netherlands have played nine World Cups and lost two of their opening games (the last being in 1938), drawn two and won five.
The interesting thing about this game is that the Spanish play Chile in the next game and probably need to win against one of either Netherlands or Chile to progress. They will need to decide which team they should risk a bit more against.
My bet is that they will sit tight against the Dutch and hope to maybe get a 1-0 or a draw, then open up against Chile. The Dutch can play for a draw against the Spanish knowing they face Australia next, where they will be banking on three points. They will then know what they have to do in the last game versus Chile to progress.
England v Italy
England’s history is mixed, having won five, lost two and drawn six of their opening games. Interestingly, both times they have lost (1962 and 1986) they have gone on to make the second round.
In their 17 World Cups, the Italians have won nine, lost three and drawn five. In recent times, they drew their first game in 2010 against Paraguay and their opening game in the 1998 World Cup against Chile.
Italy should be playing for a draw as they face Costa Rica in the second game. England should be pushing for all three points as they face a tough task against Uruguay next up.
Germany v Portugal
If we combine all of the East Germany, West Germany and a united Germany first group stage games over all of the World Cups, we find that they have lost only one of these games. West Germany surprisingly lost to Algeria in 1982 but went on to contest the final, losing to Italy 3-1. They have drawn four of their first round games and won a staggering 13 out of 18.
Portugal have played in five World Cups and have won their first game three times, drawn one and lost one. In 2010 they drew their opening game against the Ivory Coast and went on to make the second round, where they lost against Spain.
The Germans should be raging favourites for this one given their history and I think they will go for the three points against Portugal to try to set the tone for the group.
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