The New South Wales Blues will win tonight’s second State of Origin match at Homebush, giving them victory in the interstate series for the first time in eight years.
Why am I confidently and boldly writing that the Blues will win Origin 2?
Because The Roar Editor made me! Bloody editors. How dare they tell me what my opinion should be!
That’s not to say that I don’t think the Blues will win tonight, because I think they will.
MORE ORIGIN:
>> PRENTICE: Why Queensland will win Origin 2
>> [WATCH] Highlights from Game 2 2013
>> TURNER: Blues skipper Gallen poised for the game of his life
>> Roar preview for State of Origin Game 2
>> [WATCH] Highlights from Game 1 2014
Click here to read why Ryan O’Connell is wrong, and why the Maroons will win Origin 2.
But after eight long years of pain and suffering, I don’t want tempt fate by getting all cocky and proclaiming that the Origin shield is guaranteed to head back to New South Wales.
A losing streak of that magnitude does tend to jade one’s conviction and belief.
However, the Blues could hardly be in a better position to finally end the misery for their state. Ignoring for a second the crucial injuries to the Morris twins and the subsequent gamble of selecting Josh Dugan and Will Hopoate to replace them, everything is perfectly set up for New South Wales to finally end Queensland’s dynasty.
They’re up one-nil. The game is in Sydney. Queensland have numerous injury concerns, and will be without their preferred halfback, Cooper Cronk. Basically, the series is there for the taking for the Blues.
And here are three reasons why I think they’ll get the job done.
Jarryd Hayne
Let’s not overcomplicate things here. A big reason why the Blues will feel bullish about their chances tonight is because Jarryd Hayne is a match winner.
It’s a not cliché when describing the Parramatta fullback, because he’s capable of winning a game for his team by himself. That’s just how good he is.
Though plenty of Blues players performed well in Game 1 in Brisbane, Hayne was the standout and justifiably took home man-of-the-match honours.
He’s been consistently brilliant at Origin level during his career, and the Queenslanders respect and fear him. If he plays anywhere near his very best football, the Blues will win the game.
It was absolutely staggering that some people suggested Hayne should have been moved to the centres for NSW to cover the loss of Josh Morris.
Though I agree with the sentiment that Hayne can have a big impact on the game no matter where he plays, he can have the biggest impact on the game from fullback, and you want to put your best player in the position where he can have the greatest influence upon the result of the match.
Fullback enables him to get more touches of the football, while also allowing him to attack the Maroons from broken play. It’s vital to the success of the Blues that both of these things happen, and it would be much harder for Hayne to do that from right centre.
Above all, Hayne enjoys playing fullback and is most comfortable there. You don’t want to mess with the head of a superstar of Hayne’s ability. Play him where he wants to play.
Confidence
The Blues will take many positives out of their victory in the opening game of the series, but none will be bigger than the confidence and self-belief that the win would have generated within the NSW camp.
Beating the Maroons is no mean feat at the best of times. Beating them at Suncorp Stadium in front of a parochial home crowd, with the Queensland team throwing everything they could at NSW in the second half and the Blues weathering the storm with an amazing defensive effort, is a truly remarkable achievement.
Such efforts can have a profound effect on the psyche of a team. It can galvanise them long after the full-time siren has sounded, and be the building blocks for a strong culture of success – an area in which the Blues have always felt second rate in comparison to Queensland.
Game 1 certainly felt like a turning point for NSW on many levels.
Blues halves Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson will be even more settled and self-assured for Game 2. Considering how poised they both were in Game 1, that bodes well for NSW. I think they’ll have an even greater impact on proceedings in Sydney.
Greg Bird returns to a forward pack that will already be buoyed by their Game 1 efforts, and the backrower has never been short of confidence and swagger – something that can be infectious in a playing group. He also adds even more starch to a team that showed plenty of toughness and courage in the opening game of the series.
The team can also look to superstars Jarryd Hayne and Paul Gallen and feel assured that the Blues team have individuals who can match the elite quality of their opposition.
Make no mistake, the Blues will be filled with an amazing amount of confidence and momentum, and those two factors are vital ingredients for success.
Luck
You need some good fortune in sport.
Analyse any team that has ever won a championship, premiership, title, tournament or series, and you can be sure that they had some good luck upon the way. It’s just the way it is. You could say that you make your own luck, but you still need some to be successful.
If the Blues win tonight, you’ll be able to credit some aspect of the victory towards luck. It could be a referee decision. It could be a Queensland injury. It could be a bounce of the ball.
It could be the Blues getting away with picking Dugan in the centres, something I’m extremely nervous about.
Or perhaps it will simply be a case of the law of averages catching up with Queensland. Though Maroons fans may disagree, at some point this magnificent dynasty was going to end.
For NSW fans, tonight seems like a perfect time for that to happen.
Go the Blues.
jerry
Guest
sweet
Mahdisyn
Guest
Go the blues you need to win your first game this year don't let the morons win nine in a row GO NEW SOUTH WALES
angela
Guest
This is so awsome and.....GO THE BUESSS HOPE ME WINNNN AND GO TONY WILIAMS AND EVERYONE ELSE WOOHOOO!!!!!!
twodogs
Guest
Beaut analysis James- Duges seems clueless in defence at times so it is obvious qld may attack that side often. I reckon Bird may provide some cover there. Tonite could provide either a tight fiercely contested forward encounter or an open display of skills. I think the latter- it's true Qld are beginning to run on old legs and a brutal battle may see them falter at around the 60 min. mark. If they play an open style it will suit nsw and especially Hayne and Dugan. Anyhow, whatever the style that Qld mongrel will come out as usual but I have a gut feel nsw might smash 'em.
mugsyinjapan
Guest
Nice one. They call them "marrons" here in Japan. I had a nice chuckle and it was my first thought too.
V.O.R.
Guest
Ryan, i'll put it in the diary. Good luck. Parrafan, it's all valid but I would say that previous Blues fullbacks have not had the same emhasis as Hayne is now having placed on him. The expectations are huge on him. I guess we will see soon enough if he can live up to it.
jameswm
Roar Guru
One thing will decide this match. And that's how Dugan and Hopoate defend their side. Qld will attack it all night and if those two stand up, they will go a long way to winning the match for NSW. Which backrower will be on that side to help them out? Which of the halves? Qld will move left then come back to the right with their 2nd line plays. Same old same old. If our centre and wing don't get sucked infield and make their one on one tackles, I think we'll win. We're stronger in the forwards and we have Hayne hovering all over the field.
Parrafan
Guest
4 future immortals. Australia's spine and back up utility. Added to the tally of, Slater, Thurston, Cronk, Smith, Cherry-Evans, you have other internationals including Scott, Parker, Thaiday, Inglis, Boyd, (Hodges). Don't forget the players that started the run which include the great Lockyer. This Maroons team is one in a century and there is likely to never be a better one.
jameswm
Roar Guru
The marrons are missing some players? That old chestnut? He he. Wonder if anyone gets that...
Parrafan
Guest
VOR I'll chime in. I think their is more emphasis on Hayne as he now has a bigger role in the team at FB instead of being kept on one wing. It comes with the position. With two rather green halves the playmaking pressure is also on Hayne to a degree as well as clearing kicks when we are bogged down in our own 30m. Having said that the other 16 players need to be great for Hayne to be able to chime in with those 1% plays that can win an origin. All aboard the Hayne train to origin victory!
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I probably wouldn't put him on that level. I'd call those guys Origin 'legends', or some other elevated term. But I'm not biting on the bait today, we can argue tomorrow!
V.O.R.
Guest
long been considered?.....Origin great as in Wally Lewis, Johns, Lockyear....is that what they think down there? Ok sure...it's origin eve...why not...can't hurt to build him up a bit more...next they'll be talking statues.
jayjay
Guest
its one thing having a class side and its another thing winning the series.
jayjay
Guest
my apology not five games I meant to say 5 series in a row.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Definitely more emphasis based on his game 1 performance, and therefore more responsibility. But he's long been considered an Origin great, on both signs of the border, no?
V.O.R.
Guest
ROC don't you think there's a lot more emphasis this year on Hayne bringing it home for NSW? There is definitely more responsibility on his shoulders than in past years and NSW fans are looking towards him to end the rot.
Charles NSW
Guest
There is no doubt QLD has had a class side for many years. However despite that the points on either side have been very close. This is despite the fact NSW have chosen their side very poorly over the years. We will change that as Daley is making every effort to do that.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I think you'll find we've been worshipping Hayne way before game 1. There is nothing 'suddenly' about it. Also, when have Queensland won 5 games in a row? And, although I'm extremely loathe to ever pick on someone's spelling, may I suggest you try auto-correct? 'Jumb' in the lake? Really? (Normally I'd leave that stuff alone, but it's Origin time. Cheap shots are expected!)
jayjay
Guest
Hayne has lost 7 series over the years. Suddenly NSWalers are worshiping him. I thought Rugby League is a a game of 13 players plus the benchers. Even if NSW wins 2014 series they wil never come close to winning even 5 games in a row; Im prepared to bet with whoever disagrees otherwise. Go marrons Win or loose this series record has been set. If Hayne cannot lead the Blues with the leadership role the next 8 years he and his woprshipers should go and jumb in the lakes.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
If Hayne keeps the status quo regarding the Home teams then surely the blues should get the luck tonight. Lets hope the refs are not a factor. I think NSW must take the bulls by the horns and treat this game as the decider. They will not get a better opportunity than tonight. That said I think Smith and Thurston will have big games. I think that destiny is with the Blues this year and will find a way to win tonight and end the drought. Go Blues !