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Tour de France predictions for 2014

20th June, 2014
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Alberto Contador could challenge for the TDF. (Image: Sky).
Expert
20th June, 2014
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With the Giro behind us and the Dauphiné run and won, everyone’s attention is now turning towards the Tour de France and the riders we might expect to excel there.

It’s the time of year when predictions are thrown around and everyone is confident in their own favourites. In the spirit of things, here are some of mine, along with a few reflections.

Sprinters and the green jersey
Of the sprinters, Marcel Kittel showed excellent form in the early stages of the Giro. Having pulled out of the three-week race early – albeit due to illness – we can expect that he’ll be able to find similar form in July.

His haul last year surprised even himself and it would require a dream run to repeat, but this year we should be less surprised when he upsets the Cavendish monopoly.

Cavendish also picked up two stages at California and more recently one in Switzerland. He has appeared more comfortable with the support offered by OPQS than he ever did at Team Sky, and his lead out train has been bolstered by the return of Mark Renshaw.

With no prologue at the Tour this year, Cavendish will certainly have his eye on taking the first stage from Leeds to Harrogate in order to wear the yellow jersey for at least one stage in front of his home crowd.

Peter Sagan has shown plenty of good form of late, winning stages at both the Tour of California and Tour de Suisse with his usual style.

Come Paris, I, along with most, expect we’ll once again see Sagan pull on the green jersey. He’s an exciting and dynamic rider who always makes it safely through the mountains, and consistently picks up critical points on all sorts of stages that Cavendish and Kittel simply can’t.

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The Aussies
As far as Aussie sprinters go, Michael Matthews is the only one to have shown great form this year, taking a stage and contesting many sprints while holding the jersey at this year’s Giro. He also just took the first stage of the Tour de Slovénie.

It’s unlikely he has the speed of Cavendish, Sagan, and Kittel yet, but the perseverance he showed in Italy may yet net him a stage win in France if he has some good luck as well.

As has been often been the case in recent years, Simon Gerrans has also shown excellent early form in the spring.

We haven’t seen him perform in a big race for a little while, but he’ll no doubt be bringing the best form he can to Yorkshire. He’s not a pure sprinter, but combined with Matthews, Orica-GreenEDGE will have some cards to play if the racing dictates some small bunch finishes rather than all-out kicks.

Stage Two, from York to Sheffield, will be Gerro’s best chance to take an early stage and Yellow at the same time. The terrain is not dissimilar to that of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, with plenty of small but challenging climbs.

With Orica-GreenEDGE’s history of targeting the first week of these tours in order to hold the jersey, I anticipate a major effort on this stage. Given that Cadel Evans is not riding this year, and with Michael Rogers and Richie Porte each in the service of their team leaders, this could be the biggest chance Australia has of success in France this year.

GC contenders
The GC battle is shaping up to be better than we’ve seen in a few years. Sky has dominated major stage races for a while with their clinical dedication to team goals, and they have the horsepower to back up their tactics. The effect has polarised fans, with some lamenting the lack of excitement that this form of racing produces.

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Whether this is true or not, it’s looking like Sky will have their work cut out for them in 2014, and that’s a good thing for us watching.

Alberto Contador’s season has been quite remarkable: He won the overall at Tirreno-Adriatico in March and País Vasco in April, and claimed second at Volta a Catalunya and the Dauphiné. The latter of these was both the first and last big meet with Chris Froome before the Tour, and the two appeared well matched.

Just how much of an effect Chris Froome’s crash on stage 6 of the Dauphiné had on his performance in the last two stages is difficult to be conclusive about, but over the whole week he was throwing everything at Contador and, on balance, I think Contador showed slightly better climbing form and no-doubt he came out of the race in a more positive mindset than did Froome.

Much commentary has been given on Contador’s “dropping the ball” on stage 8 when he lost the leader’s jersey, but it was a rather slippery ball to be holding in the first place given that he hardly had a team there to support him, while his main threat remained Froome and the numbers of Sky.

The Saxo squad will be much stronger for the Tour, and with only one late time trial stage to favour Froome, I really think the Alpes and Pyrenean stages could be interesting this year.

Contador has a great deal of experience at winning Grand Tours and has a history of committing to innovative and bold tactical manoeuvres.

Froome, however, has hardly been seriously challenged since his rise to the top last year. Supported by the collective strength of Team Sky, we really haven’t seen him forced to step out of his comfort zone and contend with a real peer.

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After a block of training in Teide alongside Froome and Contador, Nibali didn’t show anything special at the Dauphine, but then, we needn’t necessarily have expected him to. He did produce a better showing than in 2012, when he finished third in the Tour, and his form was obviously improving as the week went on.

He too will have a very strong Astana team entirely behind him this time, unlike in 2012 when he shared leadership at Cannondale with green jersey winner, Peter Sagan.

Finally, Talansky was the surprise Dauphiné victor after all the drama surrounding the big names. It’s unlikely he has the maturity or ability at this point to challenge for the podium after three weeks of racing, but he certainly showed promise, and is one of a number of riders who could throw a spanner in the works if Saxo and Sky spend too much time looking to each other.

Nonetheless, this is shaping up to be a battle of two riders who stand head and shoulders above the rest.

Whatever happened to Andy Schleck?
This clear-cut rivalry between just two riders casts my mind back to 2010, the last time we saw a similar race build-up. That’s a strange thought when you consider where those riders are now, and it comes with a rather lingering dubiousness.

That year it was Contador again, but his rival was Andy Schleck. Schleck was of course awarded the win in retrospect after Contador’s positive doping control.

Here we are four years later and, after struggling for a time, Contador seems to be back to his pre-suspension level.

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This fact in itself raises the eyebrows of those who suspect his Clenbuterol positive was only the tip of the iceberg of his infractions; and given his excellent form against Michael Rasmussen et al during a decidedly murky time, this argument does at least have some weight to it.

On the other hand, Contador’s exciting style of racing is so welcome in the face of Sky’s domination that most have welcomed his return.

Schleck’s form since 2012, however, has hardly been befitting of even a Cat.6 commuter, let alone a Tour de France contender – or at least one with a wage to match that title. There’s really been no persuasive reason given for his sudden fall into the void, either.

Fränk Schleck, with whom Andy is famously close, was suspended for a positive control given for the diuretic Xipamide in the 2012 Tour.

The Luxembourg anti-doping agency subsequently concluded that the substance was not ingested intentionally and handed down a reduced, one-year ban. This incident combined with the history Fränk shares with the infamous Eufemiano Fuentes, however, has shrouded his reputation in some rather dark clouds.

By extension, and with no other persuasive explanation put forward by the Schleck camp, some have attributed Andy’s fall from the top to some sort of doping conspiracy that ended with his brother’s positive test, itself only a tip off of more serious banned-drug use.

With no evidence of any doping by Andy Schleck in his career, rumours like this are probably quite unfair, but the fact that they proliferate, and taken in conjunction with Contador’s return, certainly creates a rather obscure situation.

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One thing that is not ambiguous is Andy Schleck’s chances at the Tour this year – they remain more or less the same whether Trek gives him a start in Leeds or leaves him at home.

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