Gary Ablett out for the season, and it's all my fault

By Geoff Lemon / Expert

BREAKING: Gary Ablett’s shoulder injury will cost him the rest of the AFL season and a chance to see his Gold Coast Suns into the finals for the first time. And it’s all my fault.

The footy world has been awaiting news on Ablett’s injury with an anticipation unseen since the lead-up to Warwick Capper’s 1985 single ‘I Only Take What’s Mine.’

Ablett was in the form of his career this season, and a lock for this year’s Brownlow Medal, as his previously easybeat side found themselves the top eight after Round 1 and refused to leave. He was watched with growing awe each week, until a tackle by Brent Macaffer ruined everything.

If you’re reading this I probably don’t need to tell you that Ablett landed horribly and wrenched his shoulder from its socket. Seeing such a calm player in such visible distress as he left the field was telling in itself. There was hope that a dislocation might stabilise in a couple of weeks, but after probably a dozen medical opinions Ablett has opted for surgery and an early shower.

Shithouse.

I write this with some sense of responsibility though. We all know the gods punish hubris, and a few weeks ago, after Round 11, I declared in an article on this website that Ablett was absolutely guaranteed to win his third Brownlow this year.

I said that the deal was done, the contract signed, the courier called. “Ablett in 2014 has been so far above the rest of the competition that such discussion is rendered useless,” I crowed. “So let’s not bother having Brownlow night, it’s a waste of time anyway. Just send the medal to Gary now, and maybe throw in a couple more while you’re at it.”

What a hero.

Look, I did give some pretty thorough reasoning why, which you can read over if you’re keen. And I did give the minor caveat, with 11 rounds to go, that “if he gets through half of them at half his usual output, he’ll stroll in for a third Brownlow.”

As it happens he got through four and a half additional games, not five and a half, so I could claim sanctuary on those grounds. But I don’t want to hide from the truth. If I’d put in even the smallest caveat about the chance of injury into that article, any reasonable person can agree it wouldn’t have happened.

But enough recriminations. Before tonight’s mob meeting to tar-and-magpie-feather Macaffer, we should discuss the ramifications for the season.

While it pains me to admit it, Brownlow speculation is now reopened, though the tiny shiny man of the Coast is still in with a shout to take it home. He’ll have 16 rounds on voting night, and he’ll have to poll harder than a cross-country skier.

The umpires’ votes are secret until Brownlow night, but in my earlier I article I identified at least 18 votes, possibly 19, from Ablett’s first nine games. I remain confident about this, Ablett was clearly best on ground six times in six wins.

Round 10 and 11 were quiet by his standards – there’s an outside chance of a vote in Round 10 if the umpires were feeling indulgent, but a couple of Suns and a host of losing Dogs actually played better games.

Round 12 was a 35-point loss to Sydney, but Ablett was the most prolific player from either team with 37 possessions, eight inside-50s, nine tackles and a goal. Sydney had a couple of good players, so Ablett should either end up with one vote or two.

He was very good against West Coast in Round 13 in the Suns’ big Perth comeback. With 33 possessions and eight tackles, had Ablett’s snap from the pocket not hit the post with a minute to go to deny the Suns’ a win, and I’d be all over him for three votes. But Dion Prestia’s flashier and more prolific game will steal the token votes given to the losers, after a couple of Eagle mids were solid and forward Josh Kennedy kicked seven goals.

Round 14 saw Gold Coast beat the Cats in a game where there’s no fear of the losers pinching votes. Ablett was top possession-getter and laid another eight tackles, but will be kept to two votes after Harley Bennell’s brilliant game that included six goals.

A real lottery game came against Hawthorn in Tasmania. The Suns were pantsed by 53 points, but played such an even team game that no player topped 28 possessions or three goals. Ablett, on the other hand, racked up 45 touches and two goals of his own. You’re hard pressed to get best on ground in a big loss, but it’s not out of the question. He’s certainly a chance for two votes.

By my reckoning, Ablett’s worst-case scenario from those games, if the umpires shunned him at every line-ball call, is 22 votes. If he got unqualified support from the umpires then he could possibly go as high as 28 votes.

We all know there are some bizarre decisions, where you think a guy is clearly best on ground but the umpires give three votes to a chip vendor from 1982 at Princes Park. But I’m confident in this range.

And that means? A Brownlow remains on the cards. The last five winners have notched 28 votes or up, but nine of eleven before that were won with 26 or less.

Since the voting system changed in 1978, with Malcolm Blight winning a Brownlow with 22 votes, we’ve had 28 medals handed out to players who scored 24 votes or fewer. Dipper and Diesel tied for the lowest winning tally in 1986, with 17.

In the same time we’ve had 14 medals handed out for tallies of 25 votes or more, Dane Swan registering the highest in 2011 with 34. Ablett’s medal hopes just depend on how prolific those around him are, and if someone does pinch it off him, they’ll have to live with an imaginary asterisk next to their name.

Still, I don’t think Ablett himself will be too concerned. He already has two, and would be more worried about how his team will do without their best player and their captain. The Suns were brave in hanging on against the Pies after Ablett left the ground, and they’re a much improved team. They’ll need all that newfound maturity to make sure they play finals.

They do have one of easiest possible draws: the Bulldogs up at Cairns, Brisbane at the Gabba, St Kilda and Port Adelaide at Metricon interspersed with Carlton and Essendon at Etihad, then West Coast on the Gold Coast to round out the season.

That makes four strugglers, two possible speed humps, and home advantage for the one top side they play. If the Suns play as they should, they’ll win six from seven and storm into the finals. But losing the best player in the competition could break anyone’s concentration.

The Crowd Says:

2014-07-10T18:09:07+00:00

Michael huston

Guest


Would liked to have seen Fyfe win it. Too often in footy you see players tend to miss out on big honours because of how young they are, ie Gunston and Hannebery in Norm Smith medals 2012 and 2013 instead going to veterans. It's like the voters are reluctant to reward youthful brilliance. Having said that, Fyfe is a fair way behind players like Kennedy, Selwood and Pendlebury. I'd be happy for either Pendles or Kennedy to win it. Both are absolute stars that completely defy the concept of having a "bad game". Abletts potential absence is actually a blessing, as now we get to see players that don't get the recognition they deserve. Ps. Buddy winning the Brownlow may be the greatest thing to happen in football history. Lockett winning was incredibly satisfying, Buddy would be equally as great.

2014-07-09T11:21:44+00:00

Floyd Calhoun

Guest


Thanks for the Capper clip Geoff. Cause to pause and reflect there. Reflect why there weren't arrests made. Capper obviously couldn't have done all that on his own.

2014-07-09T10:41:07+00:00

Strummer Jones

Roar Rookie


On another note and silver lining, good training run for his future coaching position over the next few weeks (assuming he'll be in the coaches box the whole time). From 1000 miles away I reckon he'd make a very good AFL coach when he retires. p.s Lemo, please write an article about how the Swans cannot possibly win this year's flag ;-)

2014-07-09T08:55:27+00:00

Balthazar

Guest


Oops. Fremantle - typed in a hurry

2014-07-09T08:31:41+00:00

Balthazar

Guest


Not your fault. If it makes you feel better, it's all because the Anti Frenatle League can't get away with sending Freo to a local football ground for the finals this year. Next best thing they could think of is for Fyfey to poll most votes but be illegible for the Brownlow due to a rubbish decision

AUTHOR

2014-07-09T07:47:22+00:00

Geoff Lemon

Expert


I meant the eleven before the last five, if you get the drift. Me do words good.

2014-07-09T07:03:11+00:00

GregP

Guest


Very good article. Is it mathematically possible, though, that 'The last five winners have notched 28 votes or up, but nine of the last eleven have been won with 26 or less'?

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