No doubt: Round 17’s biggest losers were Port Adelaide, followed closely by Port Adelaide, Port Adelaide, and the teal-and-black boys from the Power. Next were any teams historically associated with magpies.
Jesus, what happened?
Earlier this season Port were reminding me of the Cats of 2007 – a young and unproven team with plenty of baggage, surging to the top of the competition with fearless attacking football.
The resemblance ended in Round 15. Losing to Sydney by under a goal at the SCG bore no shame, and Port followed up with a big win over the Western Bulldogs.
But losing to mid-tier teams like Adelaide and Essendon in front of your riotous home fans is another matter, and losing to the Struggletown Tigers in a sealed terrarium is a new depth indeed.
That’s three losses in a row, and four in five starts. A round where the other top sides all got the job done sees Port dumped out of the top four by four points, Geelong gleefully claiming their spot like a house-party opportunist when you stand up for a beer.
The Power’s young brigade might be tiring, and they might be rattled, but I still believe they have the fire to make it back. Their big jobs in the closing rounds are to beat Sydney in Adelaide and Fremantle in Perth. Do that and they might create enough carnage among the top four to break back in.
Richmond’s win means nothing in season terms – they’re even too far off to challenge for ninth – but it will mean a lot for morale. There’s no need to further flog the Tiges about their year, but beating a top side with a fierce performance will lift the July gloom.
The most significant win this round came from the Bombers. After looking like also-rans, Essendon have bounced back hard, leaping into seventh after what seems an eternity sniffing around the dog-door of the eight.
Essendon destroyed Collingwood, giving them nothing in defence, moving easily through the middle and nailing their chances up forward. They also specialised in making the Magpies look a bit stupid with some of their carnival efforts.
I thought Essendon were done for the season, but their recent form coupled with Gary Ablett’s injury and Collingwood’s freefall means they’re in with a shout. Their trip to Sydney is too big an ask, but their other five games are winnable if the right team shows up.
Hawthorn’s narrow win on Friday night was big too: Adelaide trips are never the easiest, and the Crows are also in good recent touch. With Hawthorn’s injury problems, their loss last week, their tough draw to come, and Brian Lake’s month-long suspension, there was just a hint of vulnerability. They gritted their teeth and stomped it into the dirt.
It wasn’t enough though to stop Fremantle leapfrogging them into second place after a percentage-booster over GWS. That small distinction could be huge come season’s end. If Sydney and Fremantle stay top two, their home finals will make life very difficult for numbers three and four.
In fact, you could make a case that it would be better for Hawthorn or Geelong to miss the top four. Say Hawthorn came fifth, played a home final against an easier side, then played in Melbourne against a fourth-placed Geelong tired from an interstate defeat. Geelong in fourth might have a greater risk of a straight-sets exist, or at least be more worn out once they hit a preliminary final.
North Melbourne won well, consolidating last week’s Hawthorn result to take sixth spot from Collingwood, while the Bulldogs were one of the more impressive winners of the round.
Playing Gold Coast, in this case in the Cairns heat, is now a tricky fixture, even without Ablett. Most of us expected the Suns to cover for his absence against a lower-ranked side, but the Doggies had a run of 6.3 in the final quarter to blow the hosts away, and get a game clear of Carlton in 13th.
And how big was that loss for the Suns? They’ve been in the top eight since Round 5, and more recently starting to dream of finals. Now their superstar player is in a sling for the season and their dreams could be dissolving in the harsh light of day.
The Coasters are only ninth on percentage, with some easy outings against Brisbane and St Kilda to come, but they can’t afford any more cock-ups. Their Round 22 game against Essendon is shaping as the deal-breaker.
Collingwood could be the side to give the Suns a chance though, with the way they’re freefalling. The Magpies have hung onto eighth for now, but have looked terribly out of sorts in losing four of their last five. The two Adelaide teams are their next opponents, which won’t make life much easier.
The Crows weren’t exactly expected to beat Hawthorn, but it was a big chance with the Hawks a little shaky and Adelaide’s home-ground advantage. A narrow loss was honourable, but the Crows could have taken Collingwood’s spot in the eight had they sealed the chance.
Plenty of machinations, then, in a round that only looked to have three close match-ups. As of next week the blockbusters start rolling in, beginning when Sydney take on Hawthorn at the MCG. The preliminary moves are done. Time for the endgame.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
Couldn't agree more, it's been built on hard football and mutual respect. As a Cats fan I've loved watching it, through I'd trade any number of the home-and-away games to get last year's prelim back.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
That's what I'm hoping for, DC, for the sake of late-season drama. Plus if Port can knock off Sydney or Freo and get themselves back in the frame.
Michael huston
Guest
Haha no chance Don. I give credit where I think credit is due and you'd be a fool to not realise Freo are in the top three teams in the comp, even if their winning streak consists of lower teams. I'd rate Jacobs and Mumford ahead of Sandilands based on the fact they do more around the ground. Sandilands is a hit-out machine but simply because his height is near impossible to beat. Can't hand somebody an AA honour because of natural size.
Don Freo
Guest
You'll be wearing purple soon Michael!...but..if you haven't got Sandilands in AA, you'd be the only person who watches footy who hasn't.
Thomas
Guest
The Suns are probably getting a week off at the right time but citing the Collingwood game as a reason for losing doesn't do the Dogs sufficient credit - the Dogs travelled on a 6 day break after playing on a heavy track against Geelong. They were also missing their captain. They worked harder, played smarter and got the job done comfortably in the end - a very impressive win.
Dalgety Carrington
Guest
It would make for a really interesting jostle for the top 2 if the Hawks topple the Swans from their perch this round. It would create a likely scenario (given Geelong and Freo win) of all the top 4 being on the same points and a real razor wire journey home for all 4, with multiple stern tests for each as they travail across the potential precipice.
AB
Guest
Ah, indeed. I suppose I'm scarred from all those cracking games over the past six years in which the Cats somehow find a way to win. And I suppose the real danger to Hawthorn is having to play Sydney or Freo away in the first week of September. But even so, there's something almost mystical about the modern Hawthorn-Geelong rivalry. It's first and foremost about football, rather than any deep cultural hatred of the Collingwood-Carlton variety. If the mighty Hawks, bloodied as they are, get beaten in September this year, I hope it's to a worthy adversary like the Cats.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
Indeed, looking forward to Hawks v Swans.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
Generally in September they don't worry your boys so much. It's just March through August that's caused the trouble.
AB
Guest
And I have to say, as a Hawks fan, never write off Geelong. Sydney are the fliers at the moment; Freo look very strong; Hawks are probably the team to beat when at full strength; Geelong are the real dark horse. As a Hawks supporter, they're the team I worry about the most in September.
Michael huston
Guest
What's interesting is that the pundits who universally said Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn would be the top teams, and after Port, Collingwood, Gold Coast all lingered around the top four, here we are.
AB
Guest
Hawks vs Swans at the MCG will be massive. I suspect that the absence of Lake and Gibson will give the Swans the edge, but the Hawks will still be hard to beat. It'll tell us a lot about both teams, noting that most of the Swans' wins against the top teams so far (Hawthorn, Geelong and Port) have been on their home turf. Just as this round told us that 2014 is now a four-horse race. Indeed despite all the hype about this being the most 'open' season in years, it's the same four horses as 2013.
Slane
Guest
Nobody talks about Essendon unless it's in relation to ASADA. They keep motoring on. Record crowds and memberships throughout the whole scandal. Goddard, Watson, Heppell are all game winners. When the Dons play well they are a very good team. They are my smokey for a flag this year or next. Depending if they get sanctioned or not. Imagine if they got Joey Montagna off the Sainters.
Michael huston
Guest
I'd tip the Swans, Hawks and Freo based on September experience, and if either Sydney or Hawthorn reach the GF, I'd tip them. They seem to be able to pull themselves together when they're under intense pressure.
Tanami Singh
Guest
Fair point on Freo getting a good run through this part of the season makes it difficult to get a read on how they'll go against the teams that matter. The games to watch are vs Port and the Hawks. Those two games with harden them up a little more for the finals campaign
Geoff Lemon
Expert
AFL's also the only sport where the referee also has to possess a game skill, not just adjudicate those of others. It's an interesting distinction. And no, Breust wasn't going to score from next to the behind post with three to beat.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
If Sydney and Freo finish top two they've got a nice easy path into the grand final, but they've still got to travel and win it on the day. So it really depends whether the three or four below - all looking a touch wobbly - can get their composure by September.
Daws
Guest
Yeah as a freo supporter I'm still worried about an in form, healthy Hawthorn. Obviously Sydney are favourites but if the hawks or dockers can make it to the gf with Sydney, anyone can win on that day.
Michael huston
Guest
The gap between the top three and the rest only widened this round. Freo are in brilliant form and I've made a few changes to my AA team, with Fyfe replacing Beams in the middle, and Ballantyne (shiver) replacing Elliott or Wingard in the forward pocket. Which would essentially make three Dockers, as Johnson on the half-back is difficult to ignore. My only question mark about Freo is how they'd take the harder teams after such a long spell of easy teams. If Hawthorn can get fit and rejuvenated by September, i'd still be putting them and Sydney a hair in front of Freo. Port have simply run out of legs, which isn't surprising. The saying "the seasons a marathon, not a sprint" obviously got lost on their expensive fitness guru. Hardly a disappointment though. Their young list will be more experienced and tougher next year, and will have learned from this late-season fade-out. As for Collingwood... Wow. What a disappointment. What would be most alarming is that Pendles, Beams, Swan etc are getting beaten in the midfield too regularly this season. They need some midfield help. After this round, the AA half forward would have to be given to Franklin. He's been ridiculously dominant and has almost won games off his own boot. I know many wanted to see him fail in his time as a Swan, and he may still, but his first year deserves an All Australian, maybe even a Coleman.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Interesting. Still looks to be Syd, Freo, then daylight. NM, apart from their alarming tendancy to get beaten, have a vague chance of making the 4. They would have to win all their games I think but with Hawthorn, Geel and Port all having tough runs, it's not beyond the realms of possibility. Essendon coming hard, while Adelaide might benefit from the woes of Collies and GC yet. Just a thought on Essendon, in the event of suspensions being handed down on the eve of the finals, they would be able to play their rookies and seconds would they not?