Some claim the spine of a football team – positions 1,6,7,9 – is the key to a premiership. Others would argue that forwards, and defence win games.
I would say it’s a combination of all, as well as a special team cohesion which is not shown by the numbers. For example Manly sit on top of the ladder, with the fourth most attacking plays, ninth most metres, and the 10th-best defensive percentage.
This is compared to the Cowboys who sit 12th, with the fifth most attacking plays, third most metres, and the third-best defensive percentage. If it was purely mathematical, Manly would not would not be in such a lofty position.
The purpose of this article is to rank a teams reliance on their spine in attack. My method was to add up all the tries, try assists, line breaks, line break assists, forced drop outs and 40/20s that have been notched by a team’s fullback, five-eighth, halfback and hooker.
I would then divide this figure by the number of games played by the team to receive an overall number. This numbers represents the average number of “attacking plays per game” a spine had produced.
I would then do the same for the entire team to get a total team “attacking plays per game”. I then used these two figures to calculate what percentage of attacking plays the teams spine had performed of the total.
For example the Cowboys relied on their spine for 57.95 per cent of the total attacking plays, while the Roosters only relied on their spine for 41.87 per cent of the total.
The problem with this method is that I have not factored in injuries during the game and swapping of positions, such as the Roosters routinely do with their fullbacks. However this effectively should be minimal as Anthony Minichiello and RTS have only have a difference on three attacking plays, so hopefully it evens out.
The teams are listed below from highest reliance on the spine to lowest. I have also added in a number of other figures, for comparison. Its hard to know if such statistics have any use.
Sometimes, the numbers confirm what you already suspected. For example the Bulldogs’ spine have the 14th most attacking plays, and the team has the 12th most, which is not spectacular for a team coming third. However, they have the most metres by far, and the second best defensive percentage.
These figures seem to confirm that the Bulldogs success belongs to their forward pack and not their spine. However such numbers do not take into account the hooker’s control of the ruck, or the halves direction during play.
Other times, stats make no sense at all. The Cowboys for example tick every statistical box of a top eight team, and yet they sit outside the eight. Perhaps it is over reliance on their spine, or other issues.
1. Cowboys (57.95 per cent)
12th, 7 wins, 9 losses.
1st in spine attacking plays.
5th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 23,751 (3rd)
Defensive percentage 92.81 (second)
The Cowboys have used 8 players in their spine out of a total of 29 total in 2014.
2. Storm (55.73 per cent)
8th, 8 wins, 8 losses.
2nd in spine attacking plays.
6th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 23,389 (7th)
Defensive percentage 91.99 (7th)
The storm have used 8 players in their spine out of a total of 27 total in 2014.
3. Panthers (55.42 per cent)
2nd, 11 wins, 5 losses.
4th in spine attacking plays.
10th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 23,798 (second)
Defensive percentage 90.58 (12th)
The Panthers have used 7 players in their spine out of a total of 25 total in 2014.
4. Tigers (54.29 per cent)
10th, 8 wins, 8 losses.
10th* in spine attacking plays.
14th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 22726 (13th)
Defensive percentage 89.87 (16th)
The Tigers have used 8 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.
5. Raiders (53.44 per cent)
15th, 5 wins, 11 losses.
5th in spine attacking plays.
9th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 22,115 (16th)
Defensive percentage 91.71 (8th)
The Raiders have used 8 players in their spine out of 26 total in 2014.
6. Sharks (53.18 per cent)
16th, 4 wins, 12 losses.
15th in spine attacking plays.
15th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 22,214 (15th)
Defensive percentage 92.33 (5th)
The Sharks have used 13 players in their spine out of 29 total in 2014.
7. Rabbitohs (50.20 per cent)
Pos fourth, 9 wins, 7 losses.
8th in spine attacking plays.
7th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 22,994 (10th)
Defensive percentage 94.19 (1st)
The Rabbitohs have used 9 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.
8. Knights (50.00 per cent)
14th, 5 wins, 11 losses.
13th in spine attacking plays.
13th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 23486 (6th)
Defensive percentage 90.42 (13th)
The Knights have used 8 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.
9. Titans (48.21 per cent)
13th, 7 wins, 9 losses.
16th in spine attacking plays.
16th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 22,855 (12th)
Defensive percentage 90.42 (15th)
The Titans have used 11 players in their spine out of 29 total in 2014.
10. Dragons (47.88 per cent)
9th, 8 wins, 8 losses.
12th in spine attacking plays.
11th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 22,954 (11th)
Defensive percentage 92.58 (4th)
The Dragons have used 9 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.
11. Sea Eagles (46.43 per cent)
1st, 11 wins, 5 losses.
6th in spine attacking plays.
4th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 23,071 (9th)
Defensive percentage 91.65 (10th)
The Sea Eagles have used 7 players in their spine out of 26 total in 2014.
12. Warriors (45.66 per cent)
6th, 9 wins, 7 losses.
3rd in spine attacking plays.
1st in total attacking plays.
All run metres 23,638 (5th)
Defensive percentage 91.50 (11th)
The Warriors have used 6 players in their spine out of 28 total in 2014.
13. Eels (45.55 per cent)
11th, 8 wins, 8 losses.
7th in spine attacking plays.
3rd in total attacking plays.
All run metres 22610 (14th)
Defensive percentage 90.39 (14th)
The Eels have used 7 players in their spine out of 29 total in 2014.
14. Broncos (45.24 per cent)
7th, 8 wins, 8 losses.
10th* in spine attacking plays.
8th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 23671 (4th)
Defensive percentage 91.66 (9th)
The Broncos have used 5 players in their spine out of 25 total in 2014.
15. Bulldogs (42.73 per cent)
3rd, 11 wins, 5 losses.
14th in spine attacking plays.
12th in total attacking plays.
All run metres 25,007 (1st)
Defensive percentage 92.92 (second)
The Bulldogs have used 10 players in their spine out of 26 total in 2014.
16. Roosters (41.87 per cent)
5th, 9 wins, 7 losses.
9th in spine attacking plays.
2nd in total attacking plays.
All run metres 23,230 (8th)
Defensive percentage 92.08 (6th)
The Roosters have used 7 players in their spine out of 25 total in 2014.
Parrafan
Guest
That is pretty interesting. Also number 1 and 2 have Thurston and Cronk. No surprises there.
fiver
Guest
How strange that the number 15 and 16 clubs halves have been the NSW halves the last 2 years. Not surprising though as Pearce and Hodgkinson are both average play makers.
Parrafan
Guest
I agree James, but the dogs have an average dummy half in Ennis as well. Plus two wingers have been playing fill in at FB. I heard dogs might sign Sio from Parra for FB next year. Probably a smart move. Also my view, is generally, you need to lose a GF to win one. The dogs are well on their way to make it very deep into the finals without the best backline in the comp.
james t
Guest
You need a good fullback. Your forwards can only do so much, the finals is a different beast teams will get found out. The bulldogs have the best pack but a pretty poor backline, Hodkinson is steady but won't win you a game (unless he flukes it like origin) Mitch brown is a make shift fb and is doing ok but the pressure in the finals is immense. Reynolds is there biggest weakness he has,been found out many a time he struggles to read plays and in a final he will get lots of traffic sent his way, like in 2012 storm targeted him with great success
Charles NSW
Guest
Your comments are spot on Parrafan!
Alex L
Roar Rookie
Thing with the Cowboys is that all their spine plays basically run through Thurston and get predictable, same thing happened in SoO when Cronk was injured -- Thurston can overplay his hand if the halfback doesn't marshal the team.
Shane Bell
Roar Rookie
Its just a basic percentage of the total tackles made of total attempts. For example 80 tackles have been made, and 20 have been missed. 80/(80+20) times 100 gives you 80%. Its very basic and I'm sure teams would use far more variables in working out there defensive quality, but this is the only way I can represent it quickly.
Mals
Guest
Hi Shane, in plain English can you explain to me what this term is referring to... Defensive percentage Thanks!
Parrafan
Guest
Agree. I'm a stats lover, being a follower of baseball, union, and AFL. The NRL are a bit behind at the moment but as you said the partnership with prozone should, hopefully, fix this up.
Jackson Henry
Roar Guru
Agreed, that's where all the attack begins and everything flows on from there.
Shane Bell
Roar Rookie
Cheers. Its frustrating being a stats lover and a NRL fan. The NRL are very poor at releasing statistics to the public. Hopefully it changes next year when Prozone become the principle provider to the NRL website. At the moment they are only providing data to the clubs and not the website. For now we are stuck with the AFL's stats provider Champion Data.
Parrafan
Guest
Can't argue with that Shane. Very good analysis as well. I'm a bit of a stickler for stats and figures and you've presented them very well.
Shane Bell
Roar Rookie
I would have to agree. The ability of Cameron Smith to make average forwards into premiership winners is out of this world. The Cowboys have not recovered from the loss of Aaron Payne.
Parrafan
Guest
There is always that great saying. 'Forwards will win you games, backs determine by how much'. I think that still rings true. If your forward pack is going backwards, there is no room for the halves to work in. That's why my opinion is that the modern no 9, is the most important person on the park. It all starts from dummy half.
Shane Bell
Roar Rookie
This link shows a break down of each teams total figures. http://rugbyleaguestats.wordpress.com/2014/07/16/reliance-on-the-spine/ I understand that this is a very simple look into a teams reliance on the spine, but I still found it interesting to look at.