Well, we survived. The sleep deprivation will wear off, coffee consumption can return to safe levels, and Twitter’s ceaseless hunt for the best/worst Sherliggettisms of all time can finally be set aside.
Congratulations to Australia’s Zak Dempster and Luke Durbridge for finishing their first Tours de France.
I’ve scraped together a few contentious bones to chew over while they’re still fresh.
1. Vincenzo Nibali could have beaten anyone
There’s been endless column inches devoted to Nibali’s performance, and debate over whether he could have beaten Chris Froome and Alberto Contador.
He would have won anyway. He was just so utterly in control, never put under pressure by a rider near him on GC.
And what about his victory margin? Isn’t that a bit sus?
Well, Nibali did win easily, but imagine a hypothetical crash-free ‘Dream Tour’ scenario where Nibali won, defeating both Froome and Contador. You would expect them to make up the podium, sitting somewhere between Nibali and Peraud.
In this scenario, Nibali’s margin to a hypothetically fourth-placed Peraud (7’37”) is a fair bit less than the 10’15” that Bradley Wiggins took out of Jurgen van den Broeck who came fourth in 2012.
Good riders can take big chunks of time, even from other strong riders: Froome beat fifth-placed Contador by 6’27” in 2013; and Wiggins took 6’19” from third-placed Nibali in 2012.
So Nibali’s 2014 Tour is certainly on the high side for winning margins, but given who was missing and the lack of quality in depth in this race, it doesn’t seem that unreasonable.
If that’s not enough to convince you, how about this: Nibali rode for 5,399 minutes in this Tour, or nearly 90 hours. He won by 7’37”. That’s a margin of 0.1 per cent of his total time.
2. Team Sky’s morale is looking shaky
The Sky stranglehold is broken. If Chris Froome’s crashes and withdrawal were bad luck, it’s a failure of planning that Sky didn’t have a credible backup.
I desperately wanted Richie Porte to step up, and he’s still capable of a podium result at the Tour one day, but his season just hasn’t gone to plan and it became obvious that he was underdone far too early in the Tour. Illness caught up with him and the hard competitive edge seemed to vanish.
The toughness of Geraint Thomas and Vasili Kiryienka just weren’t enough to salvage a result from this Tour.
Meanwhile, Sir Bradley Wiggins sulked off to the Commonwealth Games and seems so miffed by the whole situation that he told the BBC that he’s had enough of serious road racing:
“The road is quite cut-throat. The track feels more like a family and a closer-knit group of people.”
That’s a statement we might as well translate to “F*@% you!” in the general direction of Froome and Dave Brailsford.
Fine, we all knew Wiggins was stroppy, but I was surprised to see British Champion Peter Kennaugh publicly criticising Team Sky for not backing him for a Tour spot:
“I feel like I’ve already proved what I can do, I don’t feel like I need to prove myself anymore. It’s starting to get frustrating when the team says things like ‘you need to go and prove yourself’.”
From the outside it’s starting to look like Team Sky’s disappointing Tour is a symptom of a deeper malaise, not just a spot of bad luck.
3. The French and Germans are here
Seven stage wins to German riders.
Four to Marcel Kittel, which settles the debate about who is the best sprinter in the world.
Two to Tony Martin, who will be truly scary if he starts winning road stages as easily as he wins time trials.
One to Andre Greipel, who never really looked in his best form after an injury-hit preparation, but still managed to grab Stage 6.
Perhaps German television should start to forgive its nation’s cyclists of the sins committed by Jan Ullrich, Erik Zabel, Stefan Schumacher and Co. by showing the Tour de France live again.
Come on, they’ve earned it!
The French are also – rightfully – ecstatic about having not one but two – two – riders on the Tour de France podium, for the first time since Laurent Fignon and Bernard Hinault stood on the top two places in 1984.
Jean-Christophe Peraud hit undoubtedly the high point of his road career (he is an Olympic silver medallist in mountain biking), but at 37 it’s difficult to see him coming back to improve his place. Thibaut Pinot is an altogether more exciting prospect, especially now that he seems to have overcome his fear of descending.
Add Romain Bardet (sixth) and Pierre Rolland (eleventh backing up after fourth at the Giro d’Italia), the heroics of Tony Gallopin to wear yellow and win a stage, Blel Kadri’s stage win, and the overall teams classification victory of the extraordinary French team AG2R.
Two stage wins, two podium places and a top ten, and the teams classification.
There’s quite a few reasons to tip the beret at a jaunty angle and sing La Marseillaise.
Can they hold a podium place against the likes of Froome, Contador, Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Uran or a fresh Rafal Majka? Perhaps not, but Bardet and Pinot should have plenty of good years ahead of them.
Even without Thomas Voeckler’s sex face.
4. La Course was a success, but there’s plenty to improve
I confess that I watched the women’s La Course race on the Champs Elysees with more excitement than I could muster for the men’s race to follow. So many people have worked so hard to get this event to happen, and the buzz from the women involved in the race was utterly infectious.
A race in front of the crowds and cameras on the biggest day of cycling in the world is a hell of a thing. It built on the mainstream success of the women’s Tour of Britain. The racing was aggressive and the sport’s most marketable superstar won.
But I’ve got no doubt that many of its backers will now be determined to ratchet up the race for next year. A criterium race in front of big crowds and with global TV coverage is pretty cool, but it’s not even close to the spectacle or sporting challenge of the men’s Tour.
The next step should be a short stage race finishing with the Paris criterium, again as a curtain-raiser to the men.
5. Cycling still has a serious trust deficit
It’s becoming clear that for many viewers, winning the Tour de France is proof enough that a rider is doping. That’s especially true when his victory margin and superiority are so clear that it looks like his rivals are stuck riding steel bikes from the 1980s.
You only need to spend five minutes on social media or reading the comments here and elsewhere to see how deeply engrained the cynicism has become.
We are talking about a rider with a proven record in Grand Tours; a gradual, consistent and methodical progression to the top; no history of doping; and with the only two riders who have seriously challenged him in the last two years absent.
Before the Tour, if you had asked most keen observers who would win if not Froome or Contador, I would bet almost all would have said Nibali.
Regardless, there is a significant minority of fans that place no trust in this performance.
It doesn’t help that he rides for a team with a bad reputation, run by an individual with a worse one.
It also doesn’t help that riders from Sky (Jonathan Tiernan-Locke), Orica-GreenEDGE (Daryl Impey) and Tinkoff-Saxo (Roman Kreuziger) were all sanctioned by anti-doping in the weeks leading up to the Tour. It’s a bad look.
And like it or not, when people see a rider like Michael Rogers winning stages a few months after returning from a well-publicised drug ban, they assume the worst. It doesn’t matter that he was found to be not guilty of doping, and it’s not fair, but people just assume it’s another case of the UCI sweeping things under the rug.
It is hard to see how cycling can reverse this trust deficit while the likes of Alexander Vinokourov, Bjarne Riis and even Matt White remain in control of teams. For now, we all wait with bated breath until the samples collected during the race have been analysed and cleared.
What can cycling do to recover its shaken credibility? Would a truth and reconciliation process really help convince the average punter that cycling has cleaned up its act, or would it just be another bad news story that tightens that old association of ‘cycling’ with ‘doping’ in the minds of casual fans?
Pollitikat
Guest
I picked Nibali to win it from the beginning I just wasn't sure about astana but that was answered. I think Nibali is one of the most underestimated and underrated riders in the peloton because he is quiet. When he took the jersey on stage 2 he became the favorite to win.
Pollitikat
Guest
I agree Tim, in the stage where Contador was attacking Nibali - Nibali was able to stay on his wheel. Also I like to point to the fact as someone stated earlier that Nibali came in third in 2012 with NO team mates none -- because all the focus was on Sagan. Nibali quietly clawed his way to third on the podium, he was the only one to give team sky any kind of challenge - phenomenal ride by him in 2012. He did not ride the tour in 2013 and I think Nibali would have been froomes biggest competitor had he ridden the tour that year...but none the less he rode the giro and won and placed second at the vuelta. This year the race was wide open and Nibali was able to answer every question that came his way...lets not forget how he inserted himself into the BMC train...and put valverde in his place everytime..I don't like that people say Contador could have won...he didn't. He crashed out...that means he lost. Froome crashed out...that means Froome lost. People just need to get over it Nibali was.by far the best rider in terms of tactics and strength in the peloton.
sittingbison
Guest
6. While riders post times matching Armstrong and bettering everyone post 50% HCT rule there will be suspicion.
Tim Renowden
Expert
We'll never know, but what I saw on that stage was Contador throwing attacks at Nibali and none of them sticking. I certainly didn't think Contador was the clear favourite at two and a half minutes down. Probably Contador would have gained some time back, but could he have gotten all of it? Well, there's a year's worth of pub debate to be had over that.
Sam Brown
Roar Guru
You actually make a pretty strong point, especially when considering the strength of Contador's team. However I'd counter by putting forward Nibali consistent strength over a number of years. For instance, last year while Contador was getting gapped by not only Froome but Rodriguez and Quintana, Nibali was dominating the Giro, in a similar way to how he did the Tour this year and he also came 2nd in the Vuelta and 4th at World's despite them not being his focus for the year. The year before that he came 3rd at the Tour with no team mates help to speak of. What this all tells me is Nibali has been building up to this for years and I think his consistent strength would have eventually taken down Contador in a very close race. I think Contador would have had his days of blowing everyone away but eventually would have succumbed. It's a pity because while this year was very exciting for some reasons, it wasn't because the yellow jersey was hotly contested. Come to think of it, the GC hasn't really gone down to the wire for a few years now, not really since Cadel won in 2011. I guess there is always next year though!
andrew
Guest
sorry. didn't we see contador make it one puny cat 3 climb, split the entire peleton and put nibali under pressure, the day before he crashed. im never going to win the contador would have won argument, as the opposing side will simply say, well he didn't and nibali did, but when contador crashed he was still the clear favourite to win the race ahead of nibali. nibali rode well no doubt. he rode so well, it got a stage where the bickering was for 2nd and he was free to attack. but I for one think we were shaping up for a nailbiting finish without the contador crash and an epic duel in the mountains. there is little doubt in my mind contador would have continued to pull time off him in the mountains. contador was so confident, that he said he basically rode conservatively over the cobbles, happy to lose time to stay upright because he knew he could claw it back later. then you only have to look at how strong team saxo proved to be with majka, rogers and roche all riding well post his crash. I personally contador still would have won. what I do not get is how definititive some are with their statements that he would not have.
T
Guest
Have to reluctantly agree with that. Not suggesting Nabali anything but sanitized but I can only feel 99% sure whist Vino is involved.
Croswalks
Guest
I'm glad somebody finally recognizes that Wiggins would've been dropped for sure had Froome been allowed the chance to take over in 2012. I remember at least two occasions in which Froome turned a switchback and was called back about 30 seconds later because Wiggins was dropping hard. It definitely shows dedication to his job on Team Sky that year for Froome especially since those few chances could have led to Froome winning. Also, it's great to see that Andy Schleck is being recognized by some people. I know he's not what he was finishing up the 2011 season and he's definitely been struggling to get back to his old shape (who knows if he ever will, injuries are hard on guys physically and emotionally), but the guy still finished 16th I think last year. Probably could've been a top 10 this year. And in the midst of the Tour of "What If's" revolving around Froome and Contador crashes, what if Andy hadn't crashed out and he and Frank were feeding off each other through the tough climbs this year. And what if he never would've had that season ending crash in 2012? Would the winners from the last 3 Tours be able to match Andy? I doubt it because he has just now reached the prime age for competition. And it goes without saying that everyone and their dog would be criticizing him for blood doping. Maybe I'm dwelling a little too much on the past, I'm just a fan of the Schleck brothers. Along with the what it's, what about Mark Cavendish? He was definitely going to lose stage 1 after he got boxed in and Giant- Shimano definitely knows how to get to the front at the end of a stage, but what how many stages could Cavendish have won if he wouldn't've crashed? I was hoping to see the old Cav with his old lead out Mark Renshaw back on his team. That's what brought about 2 years in a row with 5 stage wins for Mark Cavendish and I still think it would've been more exciting to see the battle between Cav and Kittell over the remainder of the Tour, and besides, people want to see a good sprint finish.
Sam Brown
Roar Guru
Totally agree with you regarding La Course, knowing very very little about the riders (ok, nothing then) I was thoroughly entertained by some very exciting riding, they put on quite the show. Would be amazing if they could work out some sort of schedule to run maybe a day in front or behind the guys for the final week or something along those lines before La Course as a preview to the men in Paris. Bottom line with it is though, should be a lock in for the final day next year and every year after. Also Nibali was amazing, even if Froome or Contador could have taken him in the mountains (which I doubt), he was all over everyone even in that first week, when both of those were still in. His ride in the second stage to take yellow was so gutsy and his ride on the cobbles just blew the rest of the GC guys away, he grabbed the race by the scruff of the neck and just shook the other guys down for all they had.
Aaron
Guest
honestly i don't think there's enough guys to go round to replace the doping directors. even guys retiring like jens voigt
magila cutty
Guest
It's not just the sports directors that need to go. For the sake of the sport one drug/cheating offence and the riders should be permanently expelled. As long as known cheats are in the peleton the sport will suffer. Contodor in particular showed his true colours and preparedness to do anything when he attacked Andy while suffering a mechanical. Whatever it takes, WHATEVER! Oh and Frank out too. Until these guys are excluded people will be rightly cynical about cycling.
delbeato
Roar Guru
most of the current Directeur Sportifs are riders from the doping era. even Jon Vaughters - who runs a team based heavily on anti-doping principles, was a doper. if you read the accounts of some of those guys, doping was an affliction on the sport, rather than an act of deceit. this is perhaps less so for Vino, who was still doping well past when most had sworn off it. it would be unfair to taint Nibali with guilt by association.
Tim Renowden
Expert
No, you're right, but I don't think anyone (apart from Movistar's Spanish sponsors) really thought Valverde was the better option. I read an interview with Movistar's DS where it was suggested that they wanted Nairo to get more experience leading a team in a Grand Tour before they put him head to head with Froome, Contador, Nibali etc under the pressure of the Tour. Last year he came in as a support rider for Valverde and surprised everyone, but he was never going to go under the radar this year. He's still so young and quite inexperienced in the World Tour, so sending him to the Giro was a sort of finishing school and part of a longer-term strategy for Nairo and the team. They got the Giro win, so it seems to be working.
spruce moose
Guest
Fingers crossed we have Nibali back to try and defend his jersey in 2015, with Quintana his chief opposition. Movistar need to have a long look at themselves in the mirror if they believed Alejandro Valverde was the man for the Tour. he has never ever come close to delivering.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
There will be NO trust until the the likes of Vinokourov (Nibali) and Riis (Rogers) are not leading teams of winning riders.
Big Steve
Guest
Good points. Im surprised no one seems to care that the reason there was a big time difference betwwen Nibali and the 2nd rider was because so many riders were missing. As well as Froome and Contador A. Schleck is out as well. I guess it’s not as controversial a story. Wiggins and his supporters should keep quiet. Without Froome and a hugely dominant Sky Team he wouldnt have won when he did. I suspect Froome would have won that tour if he was allowed. Nibali would have embarrassed him in the mountains this year without as strong a team and only one time trial. He is lucky he wasn't there and can maintain his delusion of how good a tour rider he was.