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Cats the elephant in the room in an apparent two-horse race

Roar Pro
29th July, 2014
46

Last week we saw a game that was built up for weeks as the potential match of the year.

Hawthorn versus Sydney put the two most recent premiers against one another in what was seen by many as a grand final preview.

The game didn’t disappoint. While Hawthorn came away with the points, plenty still believe that Sydney showed enough to hold on to premiership favouritism.

Hawthorn, though, reaffirmed their status as a definite contender and joined Sydney with an equal share of top spot, behind the Swans by just 0.8 per cent.

After that game many would have us believe that these two teams are the only two genuine threats for the flag. There is an elephant in the room, though, and it is a Cat, a Geelong Cat.

At the end of the first week of Round 18, people spoke of Geelong as the least worthy holder of second spot in history. Now, at the completion of Round 18, they have slipped to third, but it is due only to percentage. Like Sydney and Hawthorn, they also have a share of top spot.

Talking down the premiership chances of the Cats seems to have been a recurring theme of the AFL since they took home the flag in 2009, their second in three years.

2010 was supposed to be the end of their era. Challengers to their mantle, St. Kilda and Collingwood, had caught up to them. They had lost one or two of their premiership heroes, including their captain Tom Harley and the year was dominated by debate about the future of Gary Ablett.

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Despite all that, Geelong still managed to finish the season in second spot with 17 wins. It was only a thrilling encounter with a controversial ending against the Saints that derailed their finals campaign.

Then, at the completion of the season, they lost Ablett to Gold Coast as well as their coach, Mark Thompson. If anything was to mark the end of an era, that was it. In 2011, though, there they were again, on top of the grand final dais.

2012 was their letdown year, following the retirement of another Premiership captain, Cameron Ling, as well as stalwarts such as Cameron Mooney and Brad Ottens. That year saw them finish the season sixth on the ladder, their lowest position since 2006, and exit the finals in week one.

Surely, ‘they’ said, the run is over.

The run wasn’t over, though. They backed up again last year with yet another top two finish, having won 18 games in the home-and-away season, eventually succumbing to Hawthorn in a classic preliminary final.

The point is, whether they do it convincingly or not, whether they show style or not, Geelong find a way to win. It is a sign of their strong culture that they make a habit of winning football matches. That is why they can never be written off.

So, why is it that they consistently do get written off? This season, for some part, it is the way they have lost. Their four losses this year have been by an average of 55 points. Even in a number of their wins they have been challenged in the second half. They have a tendency to take their foot off the pedal when it appears the game has been decided.

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Another reason that they may be rated lowly is that before they had won their last four on the trot, they had lost four of their previous eight. This can be attributed in no small part to the form of captain, Joel Selwood. After starting the season in blistering form, the middle of the season saw him playing only bit parts in games.

It is plain now that he had been playing hurt. According to some reports he has spent a good deal of the season unable even to train during the week. Whatever the ailment, he seems to have recovered and is now back to top form. A Brownlow Medal may even be his at the end of the year.

With their captain back to his best, an elite midfield and one of the most reliable back lines in the competition, the only potential weak link is their forward line.

Tom Hawkins is in the best form he’s been for the last two years and injury free, but he needs more support. Shane Kersten looks a likely type, but is still young and has played only five games. He is a work in progress. Perhaps using Harry Taylor more in attack could be an option.

What the Cats do have in their favour is their undeniable will to win. That will put them in good stead in the last five games of the season. They still have fellow top four teams Fremantle and Hawthorn ahead of them. As well as that are a couple of danger games against North Melbourne and Carlton, two teams that gave them a scare earlier in the year.

If they maintain their winning habits, by the time they face Brisbane in Round 23 they should have top four sewn up and eyeing off a percentage booster to get them into the top two. Wherever they happen to finish, there is not a team that would be happy to play them in finals and old habits are hard to break, so don’t write them off.

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