I haven’t had time this week to prepare any of my regular video analysis in advance of the 2014 Super Rugby final which I was looking forward to as there’s plenty to analyse.
As I started writing this article my son rang me. I’m not a betting man but he likes an occasional punt for a bit of fun and he told me he planned to back the Waratahs to win by more than three points for this weekend’s final. By the time we ended the call he told me he was changing his tip and taking the Crusaders to win or to lose by no more than five points.
That sounds like a better bet to me so what did I tell him that convinced him to change his tip?
I want the Waratahs to win, as I want any Australian team to beat a New Zealand or South African team, but while the heart says Tahs, the head says Crusaders.
I gave him five reasons why the Crusaders will spoil the party.
- The Crusaders have turned around their attacking structure over the last month and are now building tremendous momentum during each match – they look like the unstoppable force we’ve come to expect from watching them excel over so many years.
- The Waratahs are a really good team with a core group of experienced players, but the Crusaders have so much more big match experience. When it comes to the crucial minutes in a tight match, which I expect this will be, this will make a big difference. If it comes down to a Crusaders player or a Waratahs player to make the vital play, I’d back players like Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and Kieran Read.
- The Waratahs are playing well but a team can only play as well as they’re allowed to and the Crusaders are very good at denying the opposition opportunities to play the way they want. The Waratahs will have their own designs on denying the Crusaders opportunities but as I said in point 1, the momentum being generated by the Crusaders will make that very hard.
- The Tahs may be playing in Sydney but playing at Homebush removes some of the advantage they would have had at the Sydney Football Stadium. I understand the commercial logic to play the final at the Olympic stadium, but it’s not the real home ground of the Tahs and I won’t be surprised if half of the expected 60,000 crowd aren’t cheering the Crusaders;
- The Crusaders are likely to dominate the set piece contests, and if this happens it will disrupt the free-flowing game the Tahs like to play.
There’s also a major semi-final to prepare for on Sunday with the University of Queensland premier grade team I help coach, so I haven’t had time to prepare any of my regular video analysis. However, my plans for a 3D analysis video were to show how structured the Crusaders are with their attack and how that helps them build momentum.
The Crusaders use a full-width attacking structure to stretch opposition defences, but this season that has tended to become a little side-to-side without penetrating through the middle. Over the last month they’ve made some slight adjustments to rectify that and are back to their relentless best in attack.
The proof that they’re back to their best comes when you see their key wide runner Kieren Read on the end of sweeping plays during a match. Last week they worked the Sharks over, building their momentum through an attacking structure that has essentially been the same since the late 1990s.
Even though the Tahs will know what the Crusaders will bring to the match, there’s a big difference between knowing what to expect and being able to stop it.
While thinking about the keys in this match I looked back at a series of analysis videos I prepared in the lead-up to the Reds and Crusaders final in 2011.
In one of those videos I summarised the threats the Crusaders posed. Watching it again, I made very similar points for the final this year. Of course the Crusaders had some different players in the 2011 team, most notably Sonny Bill Williams, but the threats I identified related to the team, not individuals – exactly what I expect this year.
The threats I mentioned in 2011 were the scrum, momentum gained from their relentless attacking structure, counter attack from turnovers, and counter attack from kick returns.
Here’s that video from The Roar rugby channel on YouTube.
I tipped the Reds to win that 2011 final by seven points, largely due to the match being played at Suncorp Stadium. If the final this year was at the SFS, that would have tipped the match in favour of the Tahs.
I tipped the Tahs to win 11 of their 16 regular season matches this season and they were the team that gave me the best results in The Roar tipping competition. But overall I had a dismal record with my tipping in the rest of the regular season.
I’m four from four in tipping the outcome of the Super Rugby finals this year, but I’ll be happy if I’m wrong this week. However, I’ve told my son not to ask me to reimburse him for a lost bet if the Tahs get up!
Glenn Condell
Guest
The mother-in-law from heaven!
RobC
Roar Guru
I see. I kinda saw it different... As you pointed out, the Sharks had a decent defence record. But that's before the last two: Highlanders and Crusaders games. If you review their season, you might notice the Sharks had worst record against the Highlanders ie Fiketoa and the attack team around him. Four tries in the first game in Durban, 3 tries couple weeks ago. Sharks defensive achilles were exposed. Crusaders seems to have applied the same game plan of isolating the Sharks backs from the pack and scored the same points. Upon closer inspection of their game history this season, it was in their fourth match against the Reds they were first exposed, when the Qld attack isolated the backs from the pack. Scored a couple of tries, bombed 2 or 3. Their team defence history below. You will notice the lapses in the last two games. In case you're not already inundated with stats. Opponent ,Home/Away,Missed,Made,M/Made,M/Total,TriesConceded 1 Bulls h 14 87 16.1% 13.9% 1 2 Canes h 14 55 25.5% 20.3% 0 3 Lions h 8 38 21.1% 17.4% 2 4 Reds h 12 79 15.2% 13.2% 2 5 Bulls a 15 103 14.6% 12.7% 2 6 Tahs h 18 119 15.1% 13.1% 1 7 Lions a 13 79 16.5% 14.1% 0 8 Cheetahs h 10 63 15.9% 13.7% 1 9 Landers h 14 65 21.5% 17.7% 4 10 Brumbies a 9 42 21.4% 17.6% 1 11 Crusaders a 14 82 17.1% 14.6% 1 12 Blues a 22 172 12.8% 11.3% 2 13 Stomers h 17 79 21.5% 17.7% 0 14 Cheetahs a 12 68 17.6% 15.0% 3 15 Stomers a 17 116 14.7% 12.8% 1 16 Landers h 17 49 34.7% 25.8% 3 17 Crusaders a 21 80 26.3% 20.8% 5
michael
Guest
What's up your arse mate?
Sir William Webb Ellis
Guest
Essa will make a great politician... because he will never give credit when it's due!
michael
Guest
Search wizziwig
Jerry
Guest
The first 3 tries were Read, Nadolo & Willie Heinz. The Nadolo one was just a big mental lapse rather than poor defensive structures was my point. The 3rd try was Heinz scooping up a loose ball from a Sharks defensive scrum. After that the Sharks were shot for the season so I'm not surprised their defence went to pot.
michael
Guest
Crusaders by 16
michael
Guest
Crusaders by 16
soapit
Guest
tends to be because of the massive funding increase they get as much as home ground advantage though
Riccardo
Guest
Cheers Nick. While the home cooked morsels will be well received, being accompanied by quality alcohol and all (thank God Dry-July has gone) the atmosphere for this game should be electric, if the build up and chest beating is anything to go by. I'm excited and I'm a Blues supporter - it's got a Test feel. Think I'd rather be there mate. Enjoy...
Riccardo
Guest
That works well for venison too Harry, the other meat on the farm. And their honey smoked xmas hams are just the stuff of cholesterol induced dreams. Perhaps a Marlborough Pinot to go with them?
Shop
Roar Guru
Nice Jeznez. I'm of course over the moon that the Wallabies will be "touring" here this year also!
bennalong
Guest
Hi Scott, Disappointing assessment by you again when discussing the Tahs. Despite the odd positive comments through the season, you were late realising how good this team can be and this summation also falls short. Your Queensland origins trump your objectivity. Your bias to the Red team leads you to make a call without truly objective analysis. Will you REALLY be happy if you're wrong? You even include facts that so obviously counter the argument you build that the Saders will overcome the Tahs defence. You talk about momentum and ignore the eight wins that mark the inexorable tide of winning performances by the Australian team You point to the game last week as if the Sharks actually turned up, to argue that the wide passing /low penetrating game is now fixed because of Read. Proof? Really? You set up the Tahs as a straw man, saying how good they are but why the Crusaders will win. The experience idea is rubbish. Look how many Tahs are Test match hardened The argument about going to Homebush is hardly convincing for this team, this year, so you must be proposing the crowd will not get behind the Tahs as they did last week. Forget money, put your balls on the line man!
RobC
Roar Guru
Hi Somer. Im with you on the WBs pack and scrum last year. It was absolutely shocking. EM was in fantasy land. Im happy to report that all the Oz SR teams and WBs have turned set piece and game plan around significantly since then. Well all except for the Tahs set piece. Ah and no. Im didnt mean to say the Tahs can beat the ABs: - Though it were true in some alternate reality, I wont mind. - What I meant to say that Crusaders will not stroll through the Tahs middle WBs vs England. Yes, I think so. Their scrum as lifted. Our guys are heavier than theirs and depth is good as ever. Except the most important THP.
Squirrel
Guest
1. Line outs will have no effect on the game 2. Tahs will win The breakdown and Maul contest. 3. AAC and Folau will carve it up in the centre 4. Crusaders will dominate territory thru precision kicking 5 . Can the tahs use their powerful forwards to breakout of their half or will the shaders defence be strong enough to frustrate and strangle the tahs. This will be the areas of contest that determine who wins. I believe in the power of the tahs forwards to break thru the shaders defence.
RobC
Roar Guru
Corporal, this is slightly off topic, but a good topic :) I recall slightly different performance from the ABs pack in the first half. I followed that game closely, as I was bemoaning the selection of Billy 12trees (36). Poms 23 can't match ABs. So the only way to win is to get a good lead... then defend and pray. They did it, Ireland almost did it. The Pom plan seems to want replicate game 1 but open it up a bit and get a better score up front, thats why I believe they chose Billy 12 trees. And worked well at first - but backfired. The Poms played a great openfield game first half complemented by forward doing their thing. and won them their 10-6 halftime lead. I recall quite a few people were bemoaning the ABs performance at the break. The turning point was the BSmith try saver before oranges. He was the saviour, and the villian? 36: - Jane fumbled the ball right in front of 36. - MT gets it and runs 85m with the Smith boys Jane + 1 or two fat boys in tow. Brown is running up as fast - What does 36 do? Hands on hips on the otherside. So when MT is tackled, Smith is over the ball w/Jane, Conrad. The only guy from England is Brown. 36 still in the other half. - If that try was scored it would have 17-6. And a different game. Wait there's more. The B.Smith try was a 36 special. He just throws the ball away in contact instead of passing or rucking it. ABs get the ball, and its 13-10. Right on 50' England gets tired, Savea scores. Bench comes on, more tries.
killaku
Guest
Agreed Da Boom,Saders will take em
bennalong
Guest
Then Jiggles, either you're not a Wallabies supporter or you're an idiot. A win for the Tahs would be a shot in the arm for the national team's first Bledisloe at the same ground a week later.
RobC
Roar Guru
Billy. One semi-final and one final? And maybe one grand final this Saturday. Hope not!
RobC
Roar Guru
OldB, the Tahs attack game is fairly straightforward: Keep the ball. Keep offloading and pounding. Defence - I believe this where its is more complex and very smart: - They seem to have done a lot of homework on the danger attackers and get in a position for two on one, or hold the line well when runners+decoys get space. Game vs Highlanders was a masterclass - especially the guys who shut him out were the Tah pack. - Realignment (after turnover) is fantastic. Scramble / try savers after missed tackes not bad. - 2nd more importantly, the pack limits the exposure to their backs - Most importantly, they flirt with the offslide. Sometimes is more like date rape. But still conscious of chips and grubbers - Look for turnover and realign to attack - It looked a lot like the Reds last year+, except for the attack part. Beale's and guys like Alofa has been there all through out. I dont see them doing anything new on Saturday.