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As a footy fan, this is one of the better times of the year. A month out from the finals, there is anticipation for those with their team secure in the eight and there is anxiety for others as their boys teeter on the edge.
For the rest, it’s about looking for positives in that final month which you can carry over the long months of spring and summer.
But August always brings with it something else – the arrival of the amateur mathematician.
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Every footy fan whose team is sitting precariously in 9th, or 10th, or 11th, 12th – or even as far down as 16th depending on how congested the ladder is – will cling grimly to hope their team can reach the finals, for as long as it is: “mathematically possible.”
Regardless of how unlikely it may be at times, where this is life there is hope – and mathematicians.
On the first Saturday of the penultimate month, there they were: “Richmond has remained a mathematical chance of playing finals”.
It got me thinking about the Tigers. Clearly and rightly labelled as the disappointment of the 2014 season just a month and a half ago, could they have actually turned things completely around?
Could they not only mathematically make the finals, but realistically make it? Could they be ready to fulfil some of that 2013 potential and actually make some noise in September?
Well they could, but personally I don’t think they will and 2014 will continue to go down as a season of discontent and disappointment for the club and their supporters.
It was only back in late June after Round 14 that the Tigers had hit their lowest point in the season. A fourth consecutive loss saw them sitting in 16th place on the ladder with a 3-10 record, and ahead of only Brisbane and St Kilda.
That’s correct, even Melbourne and GWS were looking down on them.
Ironically, it came after one of their better performances, and a game which, although disappointing at the time, could have been a turning point. It was the night they played the Swans and led by 26 points midway through the second term, only to be eventually run down by the team now most favour to win the flag.
Since that wet night, things have improved markedly for Richmond and they have not lost a game.
Now we must clarify the “not lost a game” by mentioning the opponents in those subsequent five wins.
Firstly, a win over the then last placed St Kilda, followed by a win over the then 17th placed Lions in Melbourne, then came a win against a Port outfit on a losing slide, followed by a good win in awful conditions against the Eagles in Perth.
Then, against 16th placed GWS on Saturday, they won their fifth in succession but having led by six goals at the main break, they failed to “go on with it”, actually being outscored in the second half.
Richmond back? I don’t think they look like a shadow of the 2013 side. I wouldn’t be getting too excited about a really unflattering five-game winning streak.
The big one is next Friday against Essendon. While the Bombers were OK against Sydney, they are not exactly going to be sending tremors down the spines of Tigers’ players. Still they did give the Tiges a touch up earlier in the season.
Just for the sake it though, let’s give them this one and move them to nine wins.
Following that they have Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval. Certainly not a fortress yet judging by the way they were belted by West Coast, and taking a line through that form, then the Tigers would have to be an even money chance at least.
And then they have St Kilda at home … you can write that one in ink (although Ross Lyon probably said that a couple of weeks ago), and then with 11 wins in the bank, the final round.
Sydney at ANZ Stadium. The Tigers have lost their last seven in Sydney dating back to 2004, and will meet a Swans’ team possibly looking to secure top spot, and a home final, and be in peak form heading into September. Good luck with that Richmond.
But, again, let’s just say, for the sake of it that they beat the Swans and finish with 12 wins and 10 losses. Will that be enough?
I don’t think it will. It will more than likely lead to another ninth-placed finish and will end a season that promised so much but in the end delivered what Richmond teams have delivered so often in the past, disappointment.
Last year I was along for the ride too. I enjoyed the excitement surrounding the Tigers making the finals again, and how it was a feel good story for footy.
But one swallow does not a winter make. And after a summer of anticipation, this is what Richmond fans will be left with. Another season of discontent, and what might have been.
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