There are only five premiership rounds remaining this season and it’s been one of the closest competitions in recent memory.
After 21 rounds only the Sharks, Raiders and Knights can’t make the eight. Titans are as good as gone but five wins on the trot, however unlikely, and they could grab hold of eighth spot.
General consensus is that 30 points will get you in the eight. 28 points may be good enough, but you better have a good for and against. Despite these guidelines remaining true for recent seasons, I am about to drop a bombshell.
At least one team will fail to make the top eight despite making it to the elusive thirty-point safe zone.
I have gone ahead and mapped out what I consider the most likely results for the final forty matches and have come up with a possible final table. While I am no chance of getting all tips correct, it looks like a team will end the season outside the top eight on thirty points.
My top eight is as follows. Manly, Souths, Melbourne, Sydney, Penrith, Parramatta, North Queensland and New Zealand.
In my subjective finishing positions, both the Cowboys and the Warriors finish on 30 points, as do the Bulldogs. Due to an inferior points differential Canterbury will miss out of the finals.
The Dragons and Broncos will both come agonisingly close as well on 28 points.
While the chances that the top eight will finish the way I predict it are unlikely, there is still an extremely high chance that thirty points won’t guarantee you a place.
My final positioning brings up some interesting points and relies on certain results. I have Manly beating the Rabbitohs this weekend and with that win pretty much sealing the minor premiership. And although I have the Dragons finishing on 28 points, I have them going down to Canberra in the nation’s capital. It doesn’t matter how bad the Raiders are going they always seem to rise against St George Illawarra.
Along with Manly and Souths, I have the Storm and Roosters rounding out the top four. Just like last year I see these four as the only teams that can take out the premiership. Parramatta, North Queensland and the Warriors can all beat anyone when the turn it on but I don’t see them having the consistency to win four games of semi final intensity in a row. Due to a horror injury run, Penrith will only be making up the numbers.
The Bulldogs are the big losers and will drop right out of the top eight. A few weeks ago they looked like finals certainties and right in the hunt for the premiership. The last three weeks have shown that something in their dynamic has changed and they have lost that desire to win.
The media is suggesting this is due to Michael Ennis’ departure, but who really knows?
The wooden spoon will come down to three teams. I have the Sharks, Raiders and Knights all finishing on 16 points. For and against will decide who comes in last.
Am I right, or have I lost my mind?
slurpy
Guest
i hadn't looked at the warriors run home, the way this comp is going they might even make top 4 with their finish. i really would like to see someone go on a run and steal the comp from the usual suspects (melb, syd, manly). Parra would be a proper cinderella story. interesting you haven't rated manlys form. i suppose if your not letting points in you don't have to score many to get the chockies.
maximillian
Guest
NZ will be there. They have the Sharks/Titans/Knights as 3 of their final 5 matches & all of those are winnable. They also have 3 more home games at Mt Smart, with their only loss there this year was against the table topping Sea Eagles so thats a relatively easy closing draw. Manly have been the standout team but their form hasnt really been that good IMO. This competition is closer than ever so if a team can go on a run heading into the finals they could potentially steal a premiership from nowhere. The Eels/Warriors/Cowboys all fall into this category so it could get exciting.
slurpy
Guest
dogs will be there - currently on 26 points - 2 against wests, 2 against titans makes 30 and they will get up against either the broncs or parra (if not both) taking them to 32, that will put them in your safe zone. having said that they have gone from looking like premiership contenders to a team just making up the number for sept. i think the final 8 will look exactly like it does now, except parra might take the place of NZ or NQ.
Ken
Guest
As a Dragons fan I've also picked out the Raiders game as key to their chances from here on. 2 points there will not only be a huge monkey off their back but is also a big chance to be the difference between finals or no finals.