I don’t want to alarm anyone, but Cadel Evans has ridden himself back into excellent form just in time for the Vuelta a Espana.
That’s the only conclusion you can draw when the Australian bagged two consecutive stage wins in the Tour of Utah.
Yes, the Tour of Utah (UCI 2.1) is hardly a Grand Tour quality field, but it is raced at high altitude over some genuinely tough climbs. Utah’s mountains are no joke.
Evans won the queen stage (stage 6) which peaked at Guardsman Pass, 2960m above sea level, and had a summit finish to Snowbird (2,440m). For reference, the Col du Galibier, one of the highest passes raced in the Tour de France, tops out at 2,645m.
He backed up with victory in Stage 7, in an absolutely masterful display of bike racing. Seriously, it was one of those rides where it looked like he was racing against suburban riders instead of experienced World Tour pros. It was a killing.
On the final climb, Evans had a group of four riders ahead of him, including GC leader and eventual winner Tom Danielson (Garmin-Sharp), 2013 Vuelta winner Chris Horner (Lampre) and his teammate Winner Anacona (a Colombian) and Belkin’s highly-rated Wilco Kelderman (7th at the Giro, fourth at the Dauphine this year).
Evans attacked with US continental pro Carter Jones (Optum-Kelly Benefit Strategies) in his wheel, trying to bridge across. The pair hit the summit 15 seconds behind the leaders, and closing fast.
At this stage the US-based commentators were already convinced the stage belonged to Evans. It was ominous. The best was yet to come.
Evans launched himself down the mountain like, well, the TV commentator described it thus –
“Where is the red comet from BMC? He’s falling from the sky and he’s burning up the atmosphere…”
It was thrilling, and effortless. He reached the tail of the lead group with miles to spare, had time to finish his water bottle, shake out his legs, tighten his shoes, and hang around a few metres behind the group, stalking Anacona like cat toying with a mouse.
Then it was time to win.
Evans accelerated into the final bend as his rivals braked, punched it hard out of the apex, and it was all over, red rover. Clinical. So, what does this mean for a Vuelta with perhaps its best quality field in recent memory?
Well, it means that Evans has bounced back from the Giro with his fitness and his confidence high. You don’t win at high altitude unless you’re in pretty amazing shape, and two stage wins is a big boost to your confidence.
Now, I’m not going to sit here blowing smoke rings and tell you Cadel Evans is going to win the Vuelta. Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana and Rigoberto Uran would all have to fall off their bikes (again) for him to win.
What I am saying is that Evans might be an outside chance at a podium result in Spain.
Look at the next rung of GC riders, and it’s hard to say that many have had as good a preparation as Evans.
I’m talking about the likes of Wilco Kelderman, Richie Porte, Fabio Aru, Laurens Ten Dam, Carlos Betancur, Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin, Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Warren Barguil and Thibaut Pinot.
Half of those riders have the Tour in their legs, and are likely to be tested to exhaustion by three weeks in the Spanish heat. The other half are in the same boat as Evans, returning to Grand Tour racing after riding the Giro.
None of the latter group has yet shown the form that Evans showed in Utah.
Another factor in Evans’ favour is that this Vuelta is not as offensive as previous editions. Although has has a number of summit finishes, it doesn’t hit its really big peaks until stage 15, when it climbs to the Lagos de Covadonga. Stage 20 to Puerto de Ancares has the only other above-category summit finish of the whole race.
Both of these are tasty climbs and they’ll be raced muy picante, but they don’t have the ridiculously steep ramps of the Angliru.
Damage will have to be done with aggressive racing on the various Category 1 summit finishes in Stages 6, 9, 11, 14 and 16.
The last week will be the hardest, with summit finishes on stages 14, 15, 16 and 20. It’s by no means easy, but the difficulty seems to be dialled back slightly from previous years.
The 2014 Vuelta also has two individual time trials – one 35 kilometres long and mostly downhill, one short and flat – and a team time trial. These should suit Evans.
I don’t expect huge time gaps. It’ll be a scrap for seconds here and there. That suits the veteran Australian.
I’m as surprised as anyone to be sitting here writing this, but I’m really starting to think that Cadel is a chance for another good Grand Tour result. What do you think?
Kathleen Casey
Guest
Aside from the implication of the usual BMC spin, I think Cadel has way too much integrity to undermine Samu . I am sure he still has in memory how TeeJay undermined him. Weeks on and following the race Cadel is working well for Samu, preparing for the Worlds and maybe going for a few stages! Good time trial for somebody who said he could for the first time take this one a bit easy with the pressure off!
rob
Guest
Well the 6th & 7th stages of the Utah tour backs your viewpoint, but, and this is a substantial "but", the Vuelta IS a grand tour ! And Cadel will have to contend with the likes of Froome & Contado among other serious challengers. Having said this, it was a 40 yr old Horner who won last year !!
Kathleen Casey
Guest
Rob have you missed some of Cadel's killer punches over the last twelve months. I see Cadel is much more aggressive but employs his killer punches strategically.
rob
Guest
I agree, by and large, with most of what people have said above. I'm an ardent fan of Cadel and I've followed him since 2005, where he placed eighth in the TDF. I also agree with the nay-sayers ! Cadel has never had that killer punch, you know, like Froome's series of devastating accelerations in the mountains in last years TDF and likewise Nibali's frequent accelerations in the mountains in the same race this year.Grit and determination he certainly has, by the bucket-load, as shown when he continued one particular TDF with a fractured elbow ! Having read Tim Renowden's account of the Utah Tour my head says "ummm maybe a podium", my heart says "go Cadel go" !!
Scott Pryde
Expert
Problem is Cadel would ride Sanchez out of his wheel
Scott Pryde
Expert
haha hopefully not too many!
Ropeadope
Guest
Great comment and I agree with you. There are a few stages in this year Vuelta that have a big climb followed by a long steep descent. Given the mastery that he displayed at Utah last week, I doubt anybody could beat him if he summited in a breakaway group. To be in that breakaway you need to not be a GC threat and I just don't know whether he has accepted that his days at the top of the food chain are done. It must be a hard thing to come to terms with, just think of other champions in sport, the likes of RT Ponting come to mind, a great in any era, but in his final years a shadow of the force he was in his pomp. Does he get along with Dennis? He may be able to sacrifice GC ambitions regardless of how fraught, to tutor and shepherd him through the experience that would be a wonderful way for him to bow out
Phil
Guest
I think the idea that Cadel would be a domestique for Sanchez is somewhat insulting to Cadel. Sanchez is barely 1 year younger than Cadel so he is no "outstanding spring chicken of the Peleton."
Bill
Guest
Cadel as a domestique makes sense to me. He can assist on the stages where he is not expected to win and won't be tracked heavily on stages that he has a chance. And since he isn't a pure climber he can tow Sanchez to the top at a cracking tempo before dropping off to recover for the next day. What a tow that would be. He may end up having a year similar to Rogers where he can take advantage of opportunities while the other GC contenders are concerned with each other. Whatever happens he has earned the right to do whatever he pleases for the rest of his career.
ed
Guest
The bigger question will be how many velogames credits will he be worth?
Vivienne
Guest
It would be great to see Cadel finish on the podium in the Vuleta in August.
Phil
Guest
Im not usually a betting man....but Centrebet odd ofs 100/1 on a Cadel Evans win at the Vuelta look attractive.
Kathleen Casey
Guest
Looking forward to him riding with Rohan! will be interesting to see how BMC manages this and how different the team will look compared to the one reported on earlier prior to TOU on Cyclingnews.com! maybe there will be a plan afoor to manage the three weeks. Hope Cadel gets a contract that allows him to ride? Fans like myself not done watching him ride yet! He rode with determination patience and to quote him " a little plan"!
Blinky47
Guest
No matter how hard I try I still can't see it, I think his time has come to an end. I hope I'm wrong and he leaves me red faced but I think his climbing legs are gone and he will be left behind as soon as the serious stuff starts.
Carol
Guest
Thank you Tim for your exhilarating account of Cadel's Stage 7 Tour of Utah win. There were also some other first hand accounts that seemed to conjure his cycling magic, such as Horner's comment, "His tactics in the last two corners caught us all off guard," ... "It was beautiful to watch – and painful at the same time." Cadel Evans is undoubtedly a Master road racer, possibly an 'Old Master', but I agree with you that he has had some bad luck since his 2011 victory, and also, this year when his form seems good, some unfairness in racing, as at the Giro when the debacle of the ambiguous race neutralisation comments gave some riders a huge advantage, in time, and definitely psychologically. So many commentators are quick to dump on Cadel, especially re his future chances, it's called 'tall poppy syndrome' and good to see you challenging this view!
Tim Renowden
Expert
Great comment.
Tim Renowden
Expert
Yeah, like I said, it's only the Tour of Utah, but it's not just that he won a couple of stages, it's the way he won them. With panache and confidence. I think a podium would be the top top expectation (a lot of things would have to go right for him and wrong for others), but a solid top ten would be par if he's riding as leader.
Tony M
Guest
Much as I would like to see Cadel positioned on GC threatening the podium, that's about the best I can imagine. I just don't think he still has the legs to drive himself forward off the rear wheels of the the best of today. Yes he did look good in those two stages of Utah, but lets be honest only Keldreman could be described as world class. Horner is of course but has he finally reached his age crisis or is he still a little less than full health ?Whichever he wasn't a rule by which to measure Evans. Regarding Sanchez ,a few days riding will tell Evans not to be waiting for him when the road turns up. If Cadel loses some time on GC contenders he should have a good opportunity of a stage win and that would please a lot of people.
Ropeadope
Guest
There was something gut wrenching about watch Cadel fighting for pink in the Giro this year, he made you believe that he still had the legs to go with the hart. It started slowly at first, you saw signs in the TT on stage 12, people were saying that he could take a minute out of Urana but it ended up being the other way, and then he lost a little bit more on Stage 14 and 15, still, it was ok, he was dosing his effort, he was the only real contender to win a Grand Tour, he knew what it took. Then it happened, between stages 16-20 he lost 11 minutes and you sensed he had finally realised that his level was no longer what it used to be, sure he could compete and hang tough but when it got really steep in the third week, he just didn’t have the engine. I admire him and thank him for everything that he has brought to Australian cycling the effects of which will reverberate long after he pins his numbers on for the last time. Cadel will look like a contender until week three, sitting somewhere near the front, being smart and out of trouble, it would not surprise if he's in red or definitely in the top 3, but a top 10 would be an admirable effort. Listen well young Rohan, drink up as much as you can, he won’t be around forever.
Scott Pryde
Expert
Much better chance particularly after Utah, and Sanchez has next to no chance.