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There is also a well known saying that ‘the best defence is a good offence’. This is an adage I firmly believe in.
I wanted to see if it holds weight in the greatest sport in the world – Aussie rules!
What I have done is taken statistical data from the past 25 AFL seasons to determine the strengths of each grand finalist. Once known, I could then work out who comes out on top and in particular whether defence or attack comes out on top.
Firstly, I ranked each of the two teams offence and defence using their percentages in the home and away period in relation to the rest of the competition for that year. If a team had a higher-ranking offence than defence then a classification of offensive was given with the opposite being true for a defensive classification.
With this method I was able to deduce the following from the 50 grand final teams over the past 25 years. There were 23 teams with an offensive classification, and 17 teams with a defensive classification.
Also, there were 11 teams who qualified as ‘balanced’.
Secondly, I took the total points scored in a given season and averaged it out across all teams. If a team had a higher points-for differential from this base line average compared to their points-against differential, then they were classified as offensive, and vice versa.
With this method 49 of the 50 teams were classified as either offensive or defensive. Amazingly there was only one year where one team was a statistical anomaly. This was unbelievable because the same team also ranked number one in both offence and defence and therefore is the most balanced team statistically to ever play the game.
The only way I could split this team was by going back to the raw average before rounding, resulting in an offensive classification by just 0.39 points.
It is also important to note that on some occasions one team statistically had a better defence, offence or both compared to their counterpart, yet was classified the opposite. This data merely shows whether a team is geared more towards offence or defence – not whether they are better at any given one compared to the other team in isolation.
When I combined the two lots of data, again the classifications held very true. There were only four occasions where a team ranked differently, three of which were bridesmaids and therefore not as relevant to this conversation. I used the more statistically significant data of the two methods to rate them.
The only premiership winning team to not match up perfectly was the 2013 Hawthorn team. As you can see from the data below they ranked first in offence and fifth in defence resulting in an offensive classification using method one. Using method two though the Hawks were classified as defensive.
Going back through the last four years of data an interesting pattern was seen. The amount of points for these given years had risen sharply, most likely due to the expansion teams being belted by 100 or more points by everyone.
Therefore the use of method two started to favour a defensive classification, especially if a team had a reasonable defence. It did not change Hawthorn’s classification of offensive for this year, because method one was the more statistically significant due to a 5/1 ratio of offence to defence ranking.
Where this was relevant though was in 2011 for both Collingwood and Geelong were classified as balanced using method one. Using method two they were both classified as defensive due to their measly defences.
However, they both also had exceptional offences and the expansion teams may have resulted in method two being out for the reasons stated above. I could easily have rated either of these teams as offensive, especially Geelong who won the premiership in this year.
Despite this, there were a couple of close calls on teams so this evens out my decision on the most balanced team ever being classified as offensive. But which team was it?
Overall, the most balanced team ever was the 2007 Geelong Cats, who beat the Power in one of the most dominant grand finals in recent memory. On the other side, the premiers with the worst statistical data was the 2005 Swans.
As for attack versus defence? It appears that being an offence-minded team is the way to go, with 15 premierships being taken out by these teams. Defensive teams took out 10 flags.
Here is the raw data.
1989 Hawks Premiers
• Hawks (Offensive) (PF) 2678 (2) – (PA) 1748 (2)
• Cats (Offensive) (PF) 2916 (1) – (PA) 1987 (6)
• Total Season Points 29123 @ 2080.21 average per team
1990 Pies Premiers
• Dons (Defensive) (PF) 2526 (1) – (PA) 1815 (1)
• Pies (Defensive) (PF) 2376 (4) – (PA) 1825 (2)
• Total Season Points 30816 @ 2201.14 average per team
1991 Hawks Premiers
• Eagles (Defensive) (PF) 2485 (4) – (PA) 1532 (1)
• Hawks (Offensive) (PF) 2793 (1) – (PA) 2055 (5)
• Total Season Points 33861 @ 2257.40 average per team
1992 Eagles Premiers
• Cats (Offensive) (PF) 3057 (1) – (PA) 2099 (6)
• Eagles (Defensive) (PF) 2206 (9) – (PA) 1752 (1)
• Total Season Points 34201 @ 2280.07 average per team
1993 Dons Premiers
• Dons (Offensive) (PF) 2333 (3) – (PA) 1959 (5)
• Blues (Offensive) (PF) 2315 (4) – (PA) 1968 (6)
• Total Season Points 31527 @ 2101.8 average per team
1994 Eagles Premiers
• Eagles (Defensive) (PF) 2078 (7) – (PA) 1572 (1)
• Cats (Offensive) (PF) 2403 (1) – (PA) 2104 (5)
• Total Season Points 31162 @ 2077.47 average per team
1995 Blues Premiers
• Blues (Defensive) (PF) 2357 (3) – (PA) 1711 (1)
• Cats (Offensive) (PF) 2558 (1) – (PA) 1939 (5)
• Total Season Points 33231 @ 2076.94 average per team
1996 Roos Premiers
• Swans (Defensive) (PF) 2152 (9) – (PA) 1737 (2)
• Roos (Offensive) (PF) 2526 (1) – (PA) 1982 (7)
• Total Season Points 33074 @ 2067.13 average per team
1997 Crows Premiers
• Saints (Offensive) (PF) 2294 (1) – (PA) 1918 (7)
• Crows (Defensive) (PF) 2151 (2) – (PA) 1769 (1)
• Total Season Points 31798 @ 1987.38 average per team
1998 Crows Premiers
• North (Offensive) (PF) 2486 (1) – (PA) 2117 (12)
• Crows (Defensive) (PF) 2172 (5) – (PA) 1763 (1)
• Total Season Points 32941 @ 2058.81 average per team
1999 Roos Premiers
• North (Offensive) (PF) 2463 (1) – (PA) 2129 (10)
• Blues (Defensive) (PF) 2088 (7) – (PA) 2028 (7)
• Total Season Points 33687 @ 2105.44 average per team
2000 Dons Premiers
• Dons (Offensive) (PF) 2816 (1) – (PA) 1770 (1)
• Daemons (Offensive) (PF) 2557 (4) – (PA) 2159 (3)
• Total Season Points 36393 @ 2274.56 average per team
2001 Lions Premiers
• Dons (Offensive) (PF) 2548 (1) – (PA) 1895 (3)
• Lions (Offensive) (PF) 2538 (2) – (PA) 1989 (6)
• Total Season Points 34530 @ 2158.13 average per team
2002 Lions Premiers
• Lions (Offensive) (PF) 2520 (1) – (PA) 1843 (2)
• Pies (Defensive) (PF) 2081 (9) – (PA) 1897 (4)
• Total Season Points 33397 @ 2087.31 average per team
2003 Lions Premiers
• Pies (Defensive) (PF) 2259 (3) – (PA) 1858 (3)
• Lions (Offensive) (PF) 2295 (2) – (PA1882 (5)
• Total Season Points 33351 @ 2084.44 average per team
2004 Power Premiers
• Power (Offensive) (PF) 2413 (3) – (PA) 1823 (4)
• Lions (Offensive) (PF) 2447 (1) – (PA) 1783 (2)
• Total Season Points 32796 @ 2049.75 average per team
2005 Swans Premiers
• Eagles (Defensive) (PF) 2261 (3) – (PA) 1824 (4)
• Swans (Defensive) (PF) 1974 (14) – (PA) 1696 (2)
• Total Season Points 33607 @ 2100.44 average per team
2006 Eagles Premiers
• Eagles (Offensive) (PF) 2257 (4) – (PA) 1874 (4)
• Swans (Defensive) (PF) 2098 (6) – (PA) 1630 (1)
• Total Season Points 32712 @ 2044.5 average per team
2007 Cats Premiers
• Cats (Offensive) (PF) 2542 (1) – (PA) 1664 (1)
• Power (Offensive) (PF) 2314 (2) – (PA) 2038 (10)
• Total Season Points 33645 @ 2102.81 average per team
2008 Hawks Premiers
• Cats (Offensive) (PF) 2672 (1) – (PA) 1651 (1)
• Hawks (Defensive) (PF) 2434 (3) – (PA) 1846 (3)
• Total Season Points 34374 @ 2148.38 average per team
2009 Cats Premiers
• Saints (Defensive) (PF) 2197 (4) – (PA) 1411 (1)
• Cats (Offensive) (PF) 2312 (2) – (PA) 1815 (3)
• Total Season Points 32172 @ 2010.75 average per team
2010 Pies Premiers
• Pies (Offensive) (PF) 2349 (2) – (PA) 1658 (2)
• Saints (Defensive) (PF) 1935 (8) – (PA) 1591 (1)
• Total Season Points 31845 @ 1990.31 average per team
2011 Cats Premiers
• Pies (Defensive) (PF) 2592 (1) – (PA) 1546 (1)
• Cats (Defensive) (PF) 2548 (2) – (PA) 1619 (2)
• Total Season Points 34768 @ 2173 average per team
2012 Swans Premiers
• Hawks (Offensive) (PF) 2679 (1) – (PA) 1733 (3)
• Swans (Defensive) (PF) 2290 (5) – (PA) 1629 (1)
• Total Season Points 36470 @ 2279.38 average per team
2013 Hawks Premiers
• Hawks (Offensive) (PF) 2523 (1) – (PA) 1859 (5)
• Freo (Defensive) (PF) 2035 (12) – (PA) 1518 (1)
• Total Season Points 36739 @ 2296.19 average per team
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