SPIRO: Will Kurtley be the real Beale against the All Blacks?

The ARU’s media release announcing the starting Wallabies XV and nine reserves (one to be omitted) to play the All Blacks on Saturday night at ANZ Stadium had a huge photo of Kurtley Beale scoring a try and the tag line in big type: The team to beat the All Blacks?

Notice the question mark. You would think that this sort of statement required a positive statement (!) rather than a negative query (?).

From a news point of view, though, the photo of Beale was right. His selection is a big selectorial gamble.

Beale hasn’t played number 10 this year for the Waratahs or the Wallabies. His inclusion, too, ahead of the incumbent Bernard Foley leaves the Wallabies without a frontline goal-kicker.

Both Nic White and Beale are essentially back-up goal kickers. Both have kicked important goals in this capacity, but with Beale – even conceding that superb penalty at Bloemfontein several years ago to give the Wallabies their first victory at altitude against the Springboks in South Africa in 40 years – there are doubts about his temperament.

You only have to go back to the first Test against the British and Irish Lions last year when Beale missed two kicks at goal, the second one when he slipped as he tried to make the shot harder than the first.

Your frontline kicker has to kick these kind of penalties at the end for his team to win close matches.

Cue Bernard Foley two weeks ago for the Waratahs against the Crusaders. Gooaall!! And a first Super Rugby title for the Waratahs after 19 years of trying.

So why did Ewen McKenzie go for Kurtley Beale?

The media statement going out with the selected team has the Wallabies coach saying that Beale is “an experienced guy” with 42 Tests, who will bring “added responsibility” to the number 10 jersey.

Well, perhaps.

Also “he’ll bring some additional x-factor to our game” with the “two-playmaker framework” that will ensure “we have the right balance in those positions along with Matt Toomua”.

Now you are talking.

Since 2011, Beale has been bringing the x-factor to the sides he has played in. The Wallabies’ chances in the Rugby World Cup 2011 semi-final against the All Blacks were stuffed from the time that Beale was forced out of the side with a knee injury – he had been in audacious form.

He gave them penetration and an unexpected flavour to the attack. Without him playing against the All Blacks, the Wallabies were very predictable. But – and this is the important qualification – Beale was playing at fullback at the time.

This season Beale has been brilliant for the Waratahs. His deft passes early on in the final opened up the Crusaders to two early tries. But – and again, this is an important qualification – Beale was playing at inside centre for the Waratahs.

Having watched him him play since he was a schoolboy prodigy at Joeys, I reckon his worst position out of fullback, inside centre and number 10, is number 10.

The number 10 is restricted with his positioning, especially in attack. He needs to stay in the first receiver position and direct the attack. This is not Beale’s strength as a player. He is much more effective playing two off the ruck and either running with the ball or using his deft skills to put runners, either close in or wide out, into gaps.

His x-factor appeal becomes more mundane when he is at 10.

McKenzie doesn’t need me to tell him this, he is a smart selector. We have to presume he has some tricks up his sleeve. I would expect Matt Toomua to play at number 10 a lot, as he did from the inside centre position for the Brumbies, when he interchanged slots with Christian Lealiifano.

The All Blacks famously concentrate on their own game when they are preparing, rather than what their opposition might bring to the field. But the brains trust will be looking at a lot of Brumbies footage involving Toomua to get a sense of what tricks the Beale-Toomua combination might come up with.

One other thought. Would McKenzie have run the Beale-Toomua combination if Dan Carter had been available for the All Blacks? The two Aarons, Smith and Cruden, are small halves. Beale and Toomua will try to smash through them.

The rest of the backline reflects some smart thinking and selection. As McKenzie noted, Adam Ashley-Cooper has been the “point of difference” for the Waratahs at the back-end of the season. He has played in the same smart attacking and defensive manner, but with a bit more pace, as Conrad Smith has done for the All Blacks.

The backline looks to be an exciting and potentially lethal outfit. But the forwards are a different matter. Or at least they are on paper.

The front row, with new hooker Nathan Charles, looks to be vulnerable at scrum time.

Any second row with Rob Simmons in it lacks real power, in both the scrum and general play. Simmons calls the lineouts – a crucial job that Ben Mowen built his international career on. But Mowen wasn’t an engine room forward. Simmons is, or better, is supposed to be.

He will have to rise to the occasion for the Wallabies to have the strong forward platform they need to give the backs the possession and field position to cut loose.

The backrow of Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper and Wycliff Palu looks well-balanced between grating play, speed and aggression, and hard-running.

They will find the addition of Jerome Kaino with his strength and toughness in close quarters, though, will bring out the best in the play of Richie McCaw and Kieran Read.

The Wallaby coach said he has always been a big advocate of “starters” and “finishers”. He wants his bench players to make a impact when they come on to the field, pointing out that “a lot of tries are scored in those final 20 minutes”, and that the All Blacks are lethal in this final quarter. They out-score their opponents three to one at this stage in Tests.

I see four potential impact players in his nine-player reserve bench: Scott Higginbotham, Will Skelton, Nic Phipps, Tevita Kuridrani. My guess is that if McKenzie is fair dinkum about finishers, then Ben McCalman, who is a starter, will be dropped from the reserves.

In summary, what the interesting selection of this side shows us is that McKenzie is picking and coaching the McKenzie Wallabies rather than the McKenzie/Cheika Waratahs/Wallabies.