For the past two weeks I’ve been wondering why Ewen McKenzie has announced his starting Wallaby XV and reserves a couple of days before he needed to do so.
What has added to the mystery is that a key selection, Kurtley Beale at number 10, is the sort of information that in the natural order of things a national coach would delay announcing for as long as he could.
Beale plays a different game than Bernard Foley at 10.
Foley is an orthodox number 10. He is better than most in standing relatively flat. This allows him to get across the advantage line quickly, or put runners across the advantage line quickly. A Zavos Principle of winning rugby is that the team that wins the battle of the advantage line wins the game. Getting to the advantage line quickly is one of the best ways to win the battle there.
Beale, on the other hand, stands deeper and likes to have runners coming from even deeper to send away with inside pop-up passes or longer cut-out passes.
The point here is that both these players require different defensive strategies from opponents hoping to keep them in check.
One of the points that came out of the Sydney Bledisloe Test is that the All Blacks handled Beale more easily than they handled Foley when he came on towards the end of the game. And this is natural; by naming Beale early, McKenzie gave the All Blacks time to work out ways of defending against him.
So why is McKenzie telegraphing his potential knock-out punch?
I think he is trying to get the All Blacks to concentrate on the Wallabies rather than concentrate on their on game. Judging from the play at Sydney and the response from the All Blacks, this mind-game tactic might have worked.
The All Blacks went into the Sydney Test with a good game plan to shut down Beale. But they didn’t seem to have a game plan to do their own thing, which is to score tries. It is extremely rare for the All Blacks not to score a try in a Test (a Roarer with a penchant for statistics might be able to help us out here).
Kieran Read conceded earlier this week that the All Blacks had the wrong tactics at Sydney. They were not direct enough. They lacked physicality. They gave away too much possession with kicking.
This will change at Eden Park. Expect the All Blacks to hit the ball up more, and expect them to have more answers than they did at Sydney on the Wallabies’ rush defence.
If they don’t or can’t make these changes, there is a very real danger of them suffering their first loss to the Wallabies at Eden Park since 1984, when Alan Jones’ splendid side won back the Bledisloe Cup.
One of the more interesting statistics to come out of the Sydney Test is that the Wallabies gained 410 metres in runs and the All Blacks only 184 metres.
If the Wallabies can make these sorts of running gains in difficult conditions, then what will they do if Eden Park, generally a fast field like Suncorp Stadium, is dry and hard?
To be even able to pose the question is an indication of how the Wallaby coach’s mind games are being played.
Another reason for the earlier announcement of the Wallaby XV could be that McKenzie wants the All Blacks and their coaching staff to believe they have worked out their game.
The All Blacks could feel impelled to change their basic game plan, always a difficult thing to do in the middle of a campaign.
Closer to home, McKenzie is sending a message to his players that they have the cattle, the game plan and the ticker to pull off a victory at Eden Park.
This is all about confidence. One of the advantages the All Blacks have had for some years now is that they know their personnel and game plan are winners. And how do they know this? Look at the score board. Against the Wallabies, the All Blacks have won something like 25 out of the last 30 or so Tests.
During the Rod Macqueen era, the All Blacks did not have this belief. They lost Tests they might have won by conceding last-minute tries and penalties. In the last few years the All Blacks have won virtually all these tight games.
I would say, but the All Blacks would disagree, that the 12-12 draw they gutsed out at Sydney was a sort of win, in that they denied the Wallabies a win when they were poised in the last scrum to force a winning try, penalty or even a drop goal.
Interestingly, the All Blacks were in a similar position about five minutes earlier when they had a couple of scrums on the Wallabies’ tryline. The Wallabies were saved by a couple of decisions by the South African referee Jaco Peyper.
Here we get to another unknown about the Eden Park. How will the French referee Romain Poite referee the scrums? In the third Test last year against the British and Irish Lions, Poite refereed the scrums in such a way that the Wallabies were ground into the dirt.
The scrums remain a weak part of the Wallabies game. If they can get parity here, they can go a long way to winning at Eden Park.
It won’t be easy, of course. The last time the All Blacks were defeated in New Zealand was in 2009, when the Springboks beat them at Hamilton.
The way I see the two teams right now is that the All Blacks have probably reached the peak (but an Everest of a peak!) this squad is capable at playing at. Unless the All Blacks tinker with their game plan, get some new speed in the forwards and backs and get some zip back into their game, they will go into a small decline.
They are still a great side. But opponents are getting closer to defeating them. In their last five Tests, Ireland, England and now the Wallabies came close to defeating them.
The Wallabies have got some growth to go. But how much?
Ewen McKenzie seems to be saying to his players (and to the All Blacks), you are the chosen ones to take the Bledisloe Cup off the All Blacks. The game plan is there. Just go out and do it!
The mind games are easy enough to play, if you are so inclined. It’s the real games, though, that are hard to play and win.
Grahame
Guest
Yes Mango, you are right. A lot of inflated hot air by the Wallabies supporters only to have their balloon pricked by a record-breaking wipe out. Who was the guy opposing Aaron Cruden? Didn't see much of him.
Grahame
Guest
Check the scoreboard Dirk (NZ a record 51, Aus 20) and choke on your words
Upfromdown
Guest
Great response James. It is easy to forget what has happened the last 12 months. It is part of the mind games these days and I don't mind it. I am not sure about saying the ref admitted he got it wrong. I think that was over the top, but questioning the selections and approach of the team is great. I guess however winners are grinners and whilst that remains the case it looks like a worthwhile process. 2 hours till kick off though, so time will tell where both teams are at. A dry pitch (forecast dry) should help. Let's see some tries! Thanks
James in NZ
Guest
Sorry Upfromdown I didn't see your comment on the 21st for some reason. Straight away last year when EM came on board, Hanson had this "welcome to the big boys club" smugness about the comments he made when talking to EM through the media, it was like the master talking to the new student, where was Hanson trying to assert his dominance as a test coach over the newbie from the get go. See these press releases from last year, that show SH was trying the exact same ‘mind tricks' last year and proof that EM is learning his Test coach lessons from his adaption’s (naming his team early for instances.....or you could argue that SH manipulated EM into doing that I suppose) this year. The results last year say Hansen won that battle, so far in 2014 EM is looking the better, that status could do a 180 in the next 24hrs though.As always it’ll always come down the bounce of a single ball probably. (Headline 15 Aug 2013)“ All Blacks coach Steve Hansen tries mind games on Ewen McKenzie ahead of Bledisloe Cup clash (Quote).... Hansen said rather than rattle the All Blacks, McKenzie's strategy to carefully conceal his selection intentions until a late Thursday team announcement was the action of a man under pressure after riding a wave of positive publicity last month when replacing former Wallabies coach Robbie Deans. "Australia haven't had a great run against us for a wee while now,'' Hansen said. "That's all been attributed to Robbie Deans, which I think is a wee bit unfair. Everyone seems to think that Ewen's going to make the difference so there's got to be pressure on him. "What happens if it doesn't work?'' Cooper, who was overlooked by Deans over the past 12 months, provided a headache for his former Reds mentor McKenzie, Hansen believed. Picking mercurial playmaker Cooper was a risk which Hansen believed McKenzie had shied away from as kickoff neared. "Is he feeling a bit mentally challenged because he doesn't know which five-eighth he wants to play? "I'd imagine when Robbie Deans wasn't picking Quade Cooper, McKenzie was probably saying `I'll pick you Quade, I'll pick you'. "Our information is telling us that he's going to pick the other bloke (Toomua). "It doesn't bother me a hoot who they play.'' Unquote) Then a week later..... (Headline 25 Aug 2013) “Hansen hits back at McKenzie claims” (Quote) “All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has delivered an angry riposte to Wallabies counterpart Ewen McKenzie following Australian accusations of cynical play in the Bledisloe Cup Test in Wellington. McKenzie criticised South African referee Jaco Peyper for letting the All Blacks off the hook with a series of poor decisions during New Zealand's 27-16 win. {snip} His thoughts were echoed by captain Will Genia and follow claims after the first Test in Sydney that yellow cards should be used to deter cynical All Blacks methods on defence. McKenzie says the Wallabies' early dominance in Wellington deserved to be rewarded with either tries or visits to the sinbin for All Blacks offenders. {snip} Hansen says McKenzie's comments in the wake of a 16-8 penalty count against Australia are sour grapes. {snip} "He needs to be careful how far he takes that. He might find that backfires on him," Hansen said. {snip} Hansen is happy with Peyper's performance, which he describes as consistent. He agreed that an apparent shoulder charge by All Blacks second five-eighth Ma'a Nonu warranted a second look by match officials but said justice was served when no citing was forthcoming. "The hardest job on the field at the moment is the referee's. "They're getting put under a massive amount of pressure from their own boss. They don't need coaches putting it on them either." (Unquote) The Wellington test (which I guess no one remembered because of the mountain of rugby we all have to process now.....I had to google myself) was ironically the opposite set of circumstances to last week’s test strangely. You could be justified in saying that's hypocritical or maybe the ends justifies the means.i.e bag the result and hope no one remembers how(guilty as charged). The "we were robbed" claim is forgotten quicker than the win in most cases (barring Suzie and Cardiff, Boks v Oz in NZ 2011 etc). I guess you could take the ribbing as a compliment(and/or a sign of insecurity), as in this case of trying to get under EM's skin in that normally there's those safe, neutral butt kissing comments that goes on between coaches through the press before a test match, as to not antagonize the enemy too much. I personally think the difference in the top four teams could be quantified down to about a 1-2% difference and the AB's are scrambling a bit to keep that edge, even ifs its a slight psychological one. I wonder if the cynical play aspect from the AB's too, is a sign that we're reaching a bit or "our aura is writing checks that our bodies can't cash anymore". But then the whole of last year I had the feeling that were we in a holding pattern and were not ascending in our skills or performances at all and it looks the same this year ( but probably worst...hopefully I’m wrong there). We seemed to empty the tank at Ellis park, then never recovered. The AB’s are never afforded the luxury of dropping standards for long term benefits, probably to the detriment of the teams overall growth, but then I suspect 2016 we’re going to have a lot of familiar faces disappear, but to contradict myself, we have the Lions in 2017. So then I’m just speculating at best? Maybe this is what it takes to have that ever so fine edge over your opponent, to have them second guessing themselves. The history books will just show we had a perfect year last year, but you have to wonder how long we can maintain the top spot without innovating or adapting on the field. I'd hate to think that mind tricks and cynical play is all that separates us from our contemporaries to get that Machiavellian win. Winning and having your opponents respect is the ultimate, ruthlessly getting KPI’s at all costs is part of what’s wrong with the world at large now, but then winners get the big bucks AIG sponsorship deals over the fair play team coming second (but I digress). Good luck tonight to us both. Game on!! Pardon the size of this reply.
Buk
Guest
Good cop, you got me, I would not quake in my boots about either current wing options, and some others in the Wallabies, but I would rate Folua on attack, and when the ball is in the air, as outstanding. Maybe issues about his positioning/nous on defence in the wet, but not sure it matters on a dry day. AAC also very good on attack, but he and Smith tend to cancel each other out. However, to me, the obvious advantage of Nonu's x factor over the Wallaby midfield has been lost
Gasparin
Guest
"Too" deep.
stillmatic1
Guest
and why wouldn't he worry about a loss, maxx? its his job not to lose ffs!! and one of the reasons that the abs have had this run of theirs over the last few years. the collective will to NOT want to lose to anyone. surely at the top of professional sport, this mentality separates the greats from the not so great.
stillmatic1
Guest
I don't get why you would think that way combesy? its a brand new test, with a brand new bunch of variables. and why all of a sudden are you guys worried about the supposed backlash? are the wallabies incapable of dealing with it? notwithstanding that I want to see the wbs flogged, there is still that same old starch in the defence that wallaby teams are known for (but was rarely shown in the first few RC games last year). we cant have you guys talking down their chances too much, otherwise what are these boards going to look like if the wbs grab a win...........
stillmatic1
Guest
have you not read through many threads since the game, worlds? the talk hasn't been about how the wallabies bombed a golden opportunity to win, but rather focussed on how poor the abs were and are becoming (apparently).
stillmatic1
Guest
but running metres is not "metres over the gain line", el gamba. folau probably got most of his metres and almost a quarter of his teams metres in 3 runs from deep kicks. the first half saw the wallabies only get over the gain line 50% of the time whilst the kick happy abs 61% of the time. tells a story, doesn't it? the obsession with running rugby with wallaby fans and the numbers that are produced tell very little about the effectiveness of the metres. to me, running rugby isn't about doing all the running before the gainline, its the metres past that matter.
s.t.rine
Guest
Will take more than mind games, will take THRUST from Beale, not floating across. If not I don't see NZ worrying as they crowd outside backs & wingers S T
Upfromdown
Guest
James. This is not a wind up (nor am I stirring) but I am interested in your comment "But its also great to have an old school confident Ozzie coach heading things, keeping his mouth shut and making power moves" because in comparison Hansen has been very talkative, much more than usual. His comments the last couple of weeks about Beale's selection last week and that Australia cant improve this week. Is he feeling the pressure or just trying to get a reaction?
Crocodile
Guest
Hayne too
ols
Roar Pro
Phil, fear not. We have had an awful stretch for the the last ten years. This has been the main reason NZ have been able to boast. Australia did become the great challenge to the All Blacks Australia were very much a second tier Rugby nation prior to 1978. We had a few great series South Africa in the early sixties and against the All Blacks in the late forties being the main ones of these. But from that famous last test in NZ in 1978 through to 2002 the ledger was 27-22 in favour of the AB's. And remember the 2003 WC semi final Hardly a slaughter. There were many mini eras within that period where Australia were very much dominant. What about SA record vs NZ in that same period. Affected by Apartheid of course but over the same time period the result is 17-7 to the AB's. I call that dominant to NZ. This weekend is paramount as to whether we can become that challenge again and compete at a level in 2015 to be a chance to win our 3rd World Cup.
wazza perth nz ex pat
Guest
Yo BB, they dont want the facts to get in the way of a good rant !! Bernie - ran out 400 metres plus and still couldn't score a try, and Dirk, you want to fork the ABs, really?? the only ones who might accommodate you are Mexted and Sayer.... and they are both retired....
Jerry
Guest
I wasn't finished.
maxxlord
Roar Rookie
Who cares what he says? That's why you play the match.
IronAwe
Guest
Man, I dunno why Spencer cops so mych crap. He was awesome, he threw one bad pass which lead to an early exit in the world cup and every other good thing he did has been forgotten. Spencer was a legend.
Billy Bob
Guest
We've noticed Jerry. So much repetition, so little WB love.
kelefua
Guest
Tbh as a AB supporter I havnt felt this nevous about a test in ages.. but weird thing is im loving it! Well done to the Wallabies they put in a solid effort on the weekend & almost came away with the win. All this talk about the ref & yellow cards are no fault of the guys in gold they just played what was in front of them & if they won it wouldve been well deserved. Bledisloe is alive! Bring on Eden Park already its gonna be a ripper!!