They say talk is cheap, and perhaps that was demonstrated no better than in the lead up to both the Super Rugby final and the first Bledisloe Cup Test.
Conventional rugby wisdom (the kind that’s found from the tip of Cape Reinga to the Bluff) said the Crusaders and All Blacks’ packs would dominate the opposition tight five, just as they had done in previous matches.
As surely as the sun rises, Richie McCaw was meant to break into that half smile over a job well done, just like the Rugby World Cup semi-final.
But despite both packs putting in some huge defensive shifts, most of the players left Sydney with bruised egos and a damaged reputation. They were bruised, battered and bloodied, and in Jerome Kaino’s case out of the next Test.
Now as the Bledisloe series heads to Auckland, the same rumblings are beginning to be heard. Slightly less vocal given the recent frustrations in Sydney, but New Zealand rugby fans are a proud lot and expect Eden Park to be business as usual.
Now is the time to put up or shut up. If the All Blacks’ forwards cannot dominate this Test there should be no more talk for the rest of the year about what they’re going to do in any Test.
Here are the issues as I see them.
1) Keven Mealamu
Sydney was the second Test in a row where Mealamu came on and made an absolute hash of the line outs, while being poor in general play.
There’s been criticism from a lot of corners over the preordained decision to sub Dane Coles on 52 minutes when he was playing so well, but really there’s no point having a guy come on as a super sub if the impact he makes is disastrous.
Mealamu looks done. Andrew Hore wasn’t great in his final year with the All Blacks but he was playing better than Mealamu is now.
Even if Mealamu plays well on the weekend, I’m not convinced he can keep it up for the remaining Tests leading into the World Cup. If the concern over playing a young hooker is that they can’t throw or lack experience then surely they can’t play any worse than Kev has these past few Tests.
2) Owen Franks
Owen Franks played so poorly in the Sydney Test that I would drop him if we had world class coverage at tight head.
After playing so well for the Crusaders in the month or so leading up to the Super Rugby final, he has gone completely off the boil and managed to escape Sydney without too many people noticing his horrendous missed tackle count.
If Owen Franks goes missing so does the All Blacks’ pack. His hard hitting defence is a cornerstone of a good All Blacks’ performance.
3) Wyatt Crockett
Let me preface what I’m about to say by stating that I don’t think Tony Woodcock would have made much difference in the Sydney Test, but I do think his absence will be felt over the long run because Wyatt Crockett is a penalty magnet.
Crockett has a high workrate around the park and is capable of some incredible things for a guy his size, but he is just easy pickings for refs.
You don’t see Richie McCaw or Conrad Smith sent off for killing the ball, but they have absolutely no qualms over sending Crockett off. The All Blacks’ coaches were so afraid he’d pick up a second yellow that they benched him after his sin-binning.
Unless he fixes up his game, he’s a liability, and with the All Blacks currently taking a hammering in the penalty counts we cannot afford to carry a liability.
4) The penalty counts
That brings me to my next qualm. You won’t hear me say this too often, but I couldn’t believe some of the penalties Richie McCaw gave away in Sydney.
McCaw was the difference between a loss and a draw (note I didn’t say a “victory”) with his breakdown involvements and the number of tackles he made, including a couple of try-saving ones. But the All Blacks were not only guilty of allowing Jaco Peyper to blow them off the park, McCaw gave away the stupidest of penalties.
McCaw was in the media again after the match saying the team needs to focus on its discipline and back their defence, but surely this starts with the captain.
My feeling in recent times is that the team is frustrated with its lack of possession and being unable to turn the ball over, through either counter rucking or jackaling, has resorted to an increasing number of ruck infringements.
Not being able to turn the ball over is not much of a surprise when the All Blacks’ best poacher was Andrew Hore. Now that he’s gone, Conrad Smith is the only guy who can effectively jackal, aside from the rare occasions when McCaw forces a turnover or Sam Cane plays off the bench.
The All Blacks really need to start counter rucking to fix their ruck infringements. Or don’t infringe unless the situation is desperate.
5) Possession
If the All Blacks are going to continue giving away two thirds of possession to the opposition, whether it’s because of turnovers, penalties or intentionally kicking the ball away, their run is going to end.
They cannot continue to win arm wrestles with limited ball.
It was frustrating watching the All Blacks play for a draw because they couldn’t get the ball to mount a serious challenge on the Australian line. That’s not very All Blacks like.
I don’t know how many times we’ve talked about the All Blacks’ ability to change their game plan when things aren’t going well. They used to be able to do it after half-time, but nowadays they can’t even do that.
Watching the Test live, I thought the All Blacks were lucky to reach half-time without conceding any points to the Wallabies. From there I thought they might settle down and play some proper rugby in the second half, and begin to dominate territory and possession.
We’ve seen how the All Blacks win a quarter in each half in recent games and after they took the opening quarter I expected they might dominate either the third or fourth quarter of the opening Test.
They didn’t, and talked about honest reviews and all the rest, though they stopped short of claiming they didn’t go bone deep in their preparation. But considering how poorly they played in the first Test against England, the precedent was there for them to again playing poorly in Sydney.
They’ll say all the right things in the lead up, but in Auckland they need to get hold of some ball and keep it. Put the Wallabies under some defensive pressure and see if they start giving away penalties. That will at least take the heat off us.
The restarts were another area where we didn’t dominate like we usually do. When you think of recent Bledisloe Tests, you think of the All Blacks claiming the ball at just about every restart, but we weren’t very good on our own ball let alone Australian ball. Aaron Cruden has never quite been able to place it on a dime like Dan Carter, though he has improved over the years.
I remember in 2008 when we needed a big win at Eden Park and Jimmy Cowan unleashed a monstrous box kick that made touch five minutes out from the Wallaby line. It may not have happened like this, but the Wallabies threw the line out to one of our forwards (Woodcock maybe) and he crashed over the line to score.
From there we never looked back. We need another play like that to make this Eden Park Test a success.
There are other points I could have made, like both Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock not playing at their best, Cane needing to be utilised more, or the opportunity Liam Messam has to remind people of what he’s capable of, but that’s enough food for thought for now.
Please let us win and please let there be no cards. Thank you.
Firstxv
Guest
Just how woeful are the W's pirates? the ABs are negative, cynical, dumb, have no attack, had no ball, had less players, and got on the wrong side of the ref...how on earth can a side not win against all that?
Riccardo
Guest
An excellent piece OJ. Enjoy your informative and technical expertise mate. I thought Cane's cameo was telling but I'm not sure that Richie can be effective at blindside for 80 at this level, particularly when Kaino is fit. Jerome made some errors and wasn't his bruising self but he sustained that injury early on and for me remains our premium 6. I am at a loss to understand how Owen Franks can be so insipid after such a compelling series against the English. He needs to match Slipper around the park and best him at set-piece, similar to his handling of Marler as that series wore on. Our discipline was woeful. It was pretty clear that Peyper was getting frustrated and while I still think the cards in reference to the specific incidents should have been a scrum to the All Blacks and a penalty, the reality is that anything 50/50 in your own space when the Wallabies are attacking is just dumb rugby. The bright light was our defence on our line. I agree we cannot rely on that forever but a least we got to see some physicality and commitment, which was sadly lacking around the rest of the park, especially after half time. Why we can't implement plan B (after a demonstrative diatribe from Richie and Kieren under the posts while Beale lines up another penalty) has me beat. Our adapatbility should be a strength and it's not like we haven't had lessons (a la 2007). We sometimes appear to be too hung up on producing that perfect game without doing the little things first. I think your comment about retaining posession, recycling phases and pressurising te Wallabies is spot on. Physicality in the collision, patience and composure will create opportunity.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
That's true, but Cane seems much more likely than McCaw at this stage to fetch the ball and I'm not sure we can entirely say it's not the role of the openside anymore.
Sylvester
Guest
Maybe let's wait to see if the ABs actually start losing before writing the obituaries.
Sylvester
Guest
McCaw did make 19 or 20 tackles (depending on the stats you use). That shouldn't be underestimated as a major contribution to the game, plus as an openside surely that's his core role?
Sylvester
Guest
I thought for this test, the kicking game plan was a good one and it was largely effective. What it relied on was the ABs being accurate with the ball they did have - and clearly that didn't happen. In general, I agree that they do kick too much.
Sylvester
Guest
Why does the fetcher need to be the openside? These are traditional roles that have little relevance in the modern game, IMO. Since the tackle laws changed, it's nearly impossible for the tackler - in many cases the openside - to also get the ruck turnover/penalty. It's usually the second man in, which could be anyone. In Saturday's test, steals were won by Retallick and Ben Smith. Nonu would have gotten one too if Peyper had blown up the ruck where Folau was injured. It just requires speed to the tackle and awareness by all players.
His Bobness
Guest
It does feel like 1998 all over again. We're seeing a passing of the baton, but we don't know to whom just yet. The post RWC momentum seems to have run its course as well. It doesn't feel like a side that is building but one that is trading off its reputation. It's hard to work out what has changed in a year, though. Think back to the Joburg test last year. People talk about the Sydney 2000 Bledisloe, but that test against the Boks was even better in my book. That was champagne rugby and well refereed (even with a couple of yellow cards). Most of the same personnel are there now. Perhaps it's a question of motivation after a long winning streak. Whatever noises they make about being up for every test and taking pride in the jersey, it doesn't take much to drop your guard. But it's clear they have been living off their luck since the EOYT.
Chivas
Guest
Nice article OJ. I agree with your comments. I also think Richie is on his last legs and Dan is a walking injury these days. Jevin is on his way out and Smitt won't hang on for much longer. The young guys coming through are extraordinarily fortunate to play with these legends and gain experience along with on field guidance.Guy like Fekitoa are still a few years off, but what awesome experience and knowledge to be gaining at this level for him. Same with Cruden. While he can still be a loose cannon, he is a massive improvement from even a couple of years ago. I don't think this side is looking quite on song or focussed, so it should be an interesting tussle this weekend. Thanks again for sharing your views.
Jerry
Guest
He was pretty awesome in the 27 minutes he played vs Ireland in 2012. Set up about 3 tries from memory.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I think if our problems persist then Hansen is going to have to acknowledge that Richie is playing as more of a blindside these days and that we need a younger openside. The trouble is that Richie can't catch the ball with as much physicality as Jerry Collins or Jerome Kaino, so you lose that aspect of a traditional NZ blindside.
Bring back Buck
Guest
SLADE!! I prrsonally would like to see Lima Sopoaga given a crack at some stage (Argentina?) as he's the best goalkicker in the country (Carter included) and is more physical than Cruden and Barrett
Cj
Guest
Good read, especially agree with the possession part. ABs definitely dont mind to kick the ball away and rely on turnovers for a quick counter attack. If they aint happening then the other team is easily half a chance. So OJ, if it was up to you, you would start Cane over McCaw? Also, how frustrating is Peyper says he got it wrong etc, its really not good enough.
Gazzatron
Guest
Yeah I did think about the 3rd test but I suppose I always think, was it a man of the match performance. I can't say I've said to myself after a test match, geez Crudez was awesome today either if ya know what I mean....
openside7
Guest
Also where is Dagg?? Injured? out of form maybe?
openside7
Guest
Great post OJ, I've noticed we are lacking in physicality and grunt this year. Going back to the bledisloe test in Dunedin last year, our forwards (Cane, Read and Faumuina in particular) were absolutely smashing the wallabies at every break down plus also meeting them in defense and than driving them back winning turnovers. Not seen much of that this season last week in particular, which leaves me scratching my head as to why? I love Richie but the lad looks to be tired and slower every game, I would still have him at 7 because he is the best however Hansen and co need to find a way to get Cane more game time. Cane looks to have gotten bigger and put on a few more kilos, and he can really bring back that grunt and physicality that we so desperately need.
openside7
Guest
Great post OJ, We are lacking in physicality and grunt this year. Going back to the bledisloe test in Dunedin last year, we were smashing the wallabies at every break down with the likes of Cane, Read, Faumuina. Our forwards were smashing the aussie forwards, driving them back and getting turnovers. So far this year we seem to be playing more conservative footy which leaves me scratching my head wondering why? I Love Richie, but the lad looks tired and slower, though I would still have him at 7 however find a way to get Cane into the game more. Cane looks to have gotten bigger and put on a few more kilos and can really bring back that grunt and physicality that we so desperately need.
Jerry
Guest
Minimising risk - there's less risk asking him to cover 12 off the bench than asking him to start there. And he was also covering the wing, which he's better suited to do than Crotty.
richard
Guest
And when we get hold of the ball,stop kicking it away.Unless it is kicks into opposition 22,instead of these ridiculous up and unders ( which without good chasers is seeing us put more under the cosh).
Digby
Roar Guru
Fekitoa is an interesting one, originally chosen in the squad as midfield cover in both positions then usurped by Crotty?? Why was Crotty not in the original squad if Fekitoa is not up to it?