It’s late August and the mathematical possibility term is being wheeled out as usual with the AFL approaching finals time.
Collingwood have 10 wins and are out of the eight on percentage, by a hefty one mind you, but can still make it if they beat Greater Western Sydney this week and then Hawthorn next week.
On form, they are no certainties to win either and are likely to lose to the Hawks, who may still need to win to avoid finishing fourth and therefore meeting Sydney at home in the first week of the finals.
If Collingwood do manage to win both, they need Adelaide to lose at least once against North Melbourne or St Kilda and for Richmond to go down to Sydney in the last round.
The Tigers also have a much more superior percentage than Collingwood. There is also the situation involving the Gold Coast, whose percentage is less than Collingwood’s.
If they win both against Essendon and West Coast, they put themselves back in the mix, but also rely on other results to go their way.
The West Coast Eagles are a further win behind, but have an excellent percentage. They would be favourites to defeat Melbourne and the Suns, but again winning won’t be enough.
With all due respect to Collingwood, finals are out of the question. They are not playing well enough and although teams hate using injuries as excuses, they are missing almost half their side at the moment.
Clubs like to say they have excellent depth, but when you are without star players like Scott Pendelbury, key defender Nathan Brown and lose Dane Beams and Travis Cloke during the match as they did in the big loss to Brisbane, they can’t be covered.
It looks set to be the first time since 2005 that Collingwood will miss the finals, and it will be tough for this famous club to take, but it might be time for a sort of rebuild.
You could say they require a refurbishment – if rebuild is too drastic a term – and they have an excellent batch of young players that all have fine futures.
There’s the top ten draft picks, Matthew Scharenberg and Nathan Freeman, who haven’t seen any action yet, along with Tim Broomhead, who has shown a bit late in the season.
Taylor Adams was sore after from GWS and has plenty of improvement in him being a top 15 pick a few years ago, and there’s also young ruckman Brodie Grundy, who has suffered at times this year from the second year blues but has already shown he can lead their ruck division for many years to come.
There are issues with their key defenders in Jack Frost and Lachlan Keefe. They are definetely works in progress, while Tom Langdon has certainly been a highlight.
The Pies would admit that their recruiting of players from other clubs has let them down in recent years with Jesse White and Quentin Lynch in particular not working, and they may need to again target a key forward and an experienced key defender.
Michael Talia from the Western Bulldogs, who is out of favour after showqing promise last season, could be one tall they could consider.
It’s unchartered territory for Collingwood that they appear certain not to feature in September action, but if they are fit and firing and can also work on their kicking skills, which has been another major disappointment, expect them to be in the finals mix in 2015.
In the outer
Guest
No matter what happens in terms of the Pies list and injury woes, the club will not ever return to its winning ways until they dump Buckley, who is incompetent as a coach and incapable of relating to the players. Come the end of season 2015 it will be game over for Buckley and not before time.
Ron wilderson
Guest
Collingwood will easily account for Hawthorn in the last round. Let's face it they thumped GWS by nearly 2 goals. GWS !!! Arguably the best team in the comp.
JR Salazar
Guest
Dan, GWS dropped the ball. The Pies are still alive.
Don Freo
Guest
That's the problem. If it is not a recent injury, people forget about them...or don't count them. Speaking of Nathan Brown, Damien, here's a win, win trade. Build Collingwood's defence and unite Mitch and Nathan Brown at Collingwood. Then give West Coast Fasolo to build up their midfield.
Luke Fernandes
Roar Rookie
The rebuild started the minute the siren sounded on 2013. Buckley and the club have said that on numerous occasions and its been clear with they experience they let go of last season and the kids they've played this season. Its strange, that despite this, the 'Collingwood are set for a rebuild' articles are out in force this week. Those around the club know this and anyone with their ear to the ground should as well. All it does is outline how carried away people get with the short-term, when they were top 4 they were a flag threat, lose a few and they set for a period in the wilderness. Rebuild started last year, the kids are top notch, and the long-term future is bright.
Don Freo
Guest
Hey Mark, I was wrong. After tonight's game, maybe Hawks and Sydney are actually 4th and 5th best. How exciting are the finals now?
Don Freo
Guest
Yeah, That'd be it. I'd stop playing as a protest too.
Axle an the guru
Guest
I was going to tell him Don but i thought id leave it to you this time.
Momentbymoment
Guest
Eddie is the reason they are not in the finals. The team is fine - they smashed Sydney at the start of the year - but the culture is belly up. It all started - in my humble one eyed opinion - when Eddie started whinging about the Swans on national TV. Culture starts at the top. It didn't take the players long to fall into line and they have looked pretty uninterested ever since.
Fabes
Guest
Hahaha. Ahh you gotta love footy and some of these comments are gold. Thanks for the laughs. Keeps me sane.... to a degree
Don Freo
Guest
If every club had an Eddie in charge, no club would have a problem.
Don Freo
Guest
C'mon, I've explained it previously. Out Freo way, there's a little fragrance in the air called Purple Haze.
Axle an the guru
Guest
Eddie adds some excitement which is always fun. I think he makes a good president.
Mark
Guest
Hawthorn 3rd best and Sydney 4th? What are you smoking Donny boy?
Axle an the guru
Guest
I never expect them to be top 4 dave and i have never said that,i didnt even have them in my final 8 at the start of the season, but after watching them a bit this year I think Collingwood have some of the most exciting talent going around,but i dont think Buckley is the man for the job,i dont think he has the respect of the players and i dont think he will ever do any good and a lot of Collingwood people i know think the same way.
Buddy
Guest
-- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Buddy
Guest
My dad said Eddie has to go. What do you think of that idea? -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
dave14
Guest
Do the math, Axle, as the Pies at present have the least experienced back 6 of any club, including GWS and Gold Coast. Pies back 6 have collective 160 games experience vs GWS of 337 and Gold Coast of 196. The Pies 3 preferred tall defenders from the past of Reid, Brown & Maxwell have played barely 12 games all up for the year. No one was criticising the Pies at the turn being 8/3 but clearly have been poor in the last 8 games or so. When you play kids (especially in the backline) you can expect to get thumped now and then. Coach can only deal with the players available to him and not those in the medical room. Buckley will be first to admit that he has made mistakes but have any of those been critical to cost Pies any games? What talent are you referring to - a great to good midfield, 2 good forwards and a below average ruck division/backlines? The problem is dealing with expectations that team should be top 4 every year.
Don Freo
Guest
Wish I could do the smiley face too. Can do it on my phone but not the 'pute. Certainly signals the tone.
Fabes
Guest
Hey Don. That's cool. I liked your response. Okay I won't take the bait next time! lol. For the record I don't bet either and to be totally honest I thought crap there goes 200 bucks because Freo are a damn talented team and I would probably go for them in a other life. Cheers. Carn the Mighty Hawks :)