The Wallabies will take on the All Blacks in the second game of the 2014 Bledisloe Cup at Eden Park in Auckland. Join The Roar for live scores and commentary from 5:30pm (AEST).
So the first round is done and dusted, and Australia and New Zealand ended up as kissing cousins.
On a very wet Sydney night it was Australia that made most of the play and New Zealand who escaped with a draw after being under pressure for the last ten minutes, camped inside their defence.
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Ewen McKenzie has made no changes to his matchday 23 that played last weekend whereas Steve Hansen faced a few forced changes, centre Ma’a Nonu is out with a shoulder injury, similarly is blindside Jerome Kaino with an elbow injury.
Watch live on TEN with expert commentators Gordon Bray and Matt Burke
The good news for the All Blacks is that Conrad Smith has survived the birth of his first born, a healthy young lad weighing in at an undisclosed number of pounds.
Smith has been called back into the squad and will be partnered with Ryan Crotty who replaces Ma’a Nonu. Liam Messam has been promoted to replace Jerome Kaino.
Although the All Blacks may lose a little in physicality, Messam does provide some extra pace in the back row and Ryan Crotty may not be the same physical specimen as Ma’a Nonu, but is a smart player nonetheless.
So what can we expect at Eden Park?
Hopefully better conditions, which should improve the chances of both teams to attack more and execute better.
Australia hasn’t won at Eden Park since 1986, in fact the last time Australia tasted victory on New Zealand soil was in 2011.
In spite of having the odds stacked against them the Wallabies will be confident. When looking at the data compiled by OPTA Sports, they made more metres, hit more rucks, beat many more defenders and missed fewer tackles than the All Blacks.
But, they should not get carried away, those statistics tells us that Australia made more of the play, but there are three crucial facets where the All Blacks had the upper hand.
The All Blacks won the breakdown battle, in specific the turnovers, securing ten more than the Wallabies’ four.
New Zealand was also more accurate at the lineout, losing only three versus the Wallabies four.
The scrum was admittedly not well officiated by Jaco Peyper with controversy over the last few scrums, but in spite of that New Zealand had a 100 per cent scrum success rate versus the Wallabies with 80 per cent.
Perhaps the reason for New Zealand’s success at the breakdown is thwarted by their penalties conceded, 11 defensive penalties versus the Wallabies three.
During the match New Zealand conceded 17 penalties to the Wallabies’ 10, an area Steve Hansen is sure to have worked on this week.
New Zealand will have to pick up their game if they are to beat this resurgent Wallaby side. Australia will have to pick up their game at the breakdown, line out and scrums.
Ultimately on a drier pitch the All Blacks will be able to execute with less error and play more positively, Conrad Smith will improve the defensive organisation of New Zealand and certainly their attacking prowess from midfield.
Israel Folau will hope to link more with Curtly Beale who has been retained in the number ten jersey, and drier conditions will definitely suit them better.
The battle of the breakdown will be a determining factor in this match, an area Australia will have to lift in order to reduce the turnovers. Keiran Read has been uncharacteristically low on form this past few weeks, if he raises his game to a higher level, the chance of victory will become even more of a challenge for Australia.
Scott Fardy will also need to pick his game up, conceding two penalties and completing only four tackles in the match with eight runs and an aggregate of only 11 metres isn’t exactly what Ewen McKenzie would be expecting from him.
On the other hand it does seem as if Richie McCaw’s cloak of invisibility is fading, his three penalties conceded is testament to that.
Prediction:
Australia will be guns ablaze in this match and expect them to increase the pace of the play as much as possible.
New Zealand will continue their effectiveness at the breakdown and their ability to remain calm under pressure and seek the opportunities to counter will ultimately allow them to come through stronger in the end, and pip the Wallabies by a score.
Common Sense
Guest
Miles Harrison I was thinking of.
Common Sense
Guest
I have the exact opposite feelings towards commentary. Commentators should strive to be neutral at every moment they can. If your team is poor then say they're poor, if the other team is good then say the other team is good. The problem with the Fox Sports commentators is that they wear their green and gold blinkers far too often, Greg Martin and Phil Kearns are shockers during commentary but are usually pretty good for post match comments when they aren't reacting in the heat of the moment. Greg Clarke can also be bad at times but not because of what he's saying but how he's saying it. Anything positive about the Wallabies and his energy levels are through the roof and he sounds like he's jumping up and down and having a great time. If there's anything negative about the Wallabies or positive about the opposition then every thing he says is sandwiched between groans and whinging with ever declining energy levels. Listen to him during the coverage of a Wallabies win and you'd wonder where this old man was storing all this pent up enthusiasm, then listen to him during a loss and the entire attitude changes to whinging. Greg Clarke can be very good when he doesn't wear his feelings on his sleeves. The better present day commentators in my opinion are Grant Nisbitt, Rod Kafer, One british commentator who has been around for a while but I can't for the life of me remember his name (I think it's Alex or Jonathan...something. Not Stuart Barnes, that's for damn sure), Scotty Stevenson is hilarious. But in my opinion the best commentator at the moment by far is Justin Marshall. He sounds so neutral that if you didn't know who he was then most of the time you'd assume he was subtly supporting the non Crusaders or non All Blacks sides, especially when the Crusaders are playing. That's what you want from a commentator, little to no bias, extremely high knowledge of the ins and outs of the game and personal experience of the players psyche, the ability to adequately explain them to his audience and high energy through out - regardless of who's winning or scoring. A great example is the Ellis Park test last year where his energy barely dropped during the whole game and was equally applauding and criticising both teams. If the All Blacks did something dumb then he called it out, If the Springboks did something dumb then he called it out, If either team did a miracle play and it paid off then he was gushing over all of them.
Common Sense
Roar Rookie
I'm suffering from a really bad case of schadenfreude right about now. :D
Aussie Mike
Guest
Friendly jab or not I think you're spot on. There is far too much acceptance shown. A lot of these guys just don't have the mettle.
somer
Guest
A bit harsh on the ABs front row - combined score 19.5, compared the to Wallabies combined score of 19. The ABs pack had complete dominance and the front row get little credit?
Wal the Hooker
Guest
I concur
Emric
Guest
1300 comments - this has to be the no.1 commented article on the roar
Steve Blackwell
Guest
Yeah, good overall assessment of both teams Harry. Totally agree on your rating for Beale. The guy is out of his depth at 10. Does not manage the game well, crabs far too often looking for a gap for himself, needs to offload the ball and not try to be the hero. What was Mckenzie thinking?
Steve Blackwell
Guest
Lighten up, Reality. Just a friendly jab, and maybe some lemon juice and salt for that gaping wound. lol. If you guys weren’t so arrogant after that 12-12 draw last week, the ABs wouldn’t have needed to make a statement and show you the true state of Australian rugby. It’s just a game after all, right? …right? …hello?
Jerry
Guest
That was a TN decider, not a Bledisloe. Even if the Wallabies had won, they'd have had to win or draw in HK later in the year. That win in the first test of 08 was also the only time a Deans led Wallaby side won a match when the Bledisloe was still up for grabs - the only other wins in 2010 and 2011 were after the trophy had already been retained.
Reality
Guest
"I admire the way the Australians accept defeat with dignity, year after year after year." Maybe you need learn how to win with dignity
Steve Blackwell
Guest
Have a safe trip home Aussies, and don’t dwell on the 51-20 thrashing by the mighty All Blacks for too long. You should be well conditioned to accept the loss by now anyway. Twelve straight years of kiwi domination without raising the Bledisloe cup. Wow. I would find that hard to take. I admire the way the Australians accept defeat with dignity, year after year after year. It’s unfortunate that we haven’t had the opportunity to learn that skill; the downside of winning After all, it’s not about who wins and who losses. I’m sure you got just as much enjoyment out of the crushing loss as we did giving it to you. And look at the positives, you’ll have no excess baggage fees to pay on the way home! …with the exception of Kurtley Beale of course.
Ben Gibbon
Roar Guru
Now this has to be a record for comments for the site - 1,300.
stillmatic1
Guest
Cant disagree with that. I'm not saying there wasn't a difference, just that it wasn't as initially described. Phipps is more of a livewire that's for sure. And Foley much more direct than beale.
brisvegas
Guest
So ozrugbynut when the Ab's were down to 14 the Wallabies had no idea how to take advantage of the situation however when the Wallabies were down to 14 and the AB's had 15 they were not only able to take advantage they put doubt into the Wallabies.
eyeball
Guest
It is amusing that if a team that hardly ever loses talks about winning, they are arrogant, whereas a team that hardly ever wins (against NZ & Sa) tells all and sundry why they are going to start winning, it is confidence.
Garth
Guest
Any AB backline with Conrad in it is dangerous. It's why I've come to the conclusion that if he is unavailable for any reason, Nonu must be dropped as well. Better to have a totally different centre combo than one that has Nonu without C. Smith.
Mike
Guest
You were responding to RM's comment which related to his captaincy.
Mike
Guest
It happens quite a lot. But anyone who couldn't see the difference in the Wallabies pigs performance in that last 30 minutes is blind. They finally looked like a pack who had some hope of creating conditions for tries to be scored. I know its tempting for AB fans to see a test match as being solely an issue of how the ABs performed, but there were two teams out there and each influenced the play of the other. I don't agree with you that there was ever any "glimmer of hope" in the second half, and I think the ABs were very dirty on themselves for letting our forwards get back at them during that period. Just as they were dirty on themselves for their mistakes last week. That's why they are such a good team.
Mike
Guest
There was also a lot of very bitter froth and bubble from ABs supporters who couldn't believe their team didn't win that first match. To those AB fans, winning has become an entitlement and there seemed to be a lot of them posting. But I agree there were also a lot who weren't like that.