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Roos versus Crows match will be an emotional rollercoaster

Roar Pro
22nd August, 2014
5

If one was to comment at the start of the season that the Round 22 clash between North Melbourne and Adelaide may be one of the most anticipated of the year, it would have seemed foolish.

Taking the game in isolation, even this week it may be foolish. These are two teams that missed the finals last year and are probably the two least consistent this year. Neither side has strung more than three wins together in 2014.

In the context of the race for the top eight though, supporters of at least six AFL clubs will have a keen interest in this game. The equation is simple. If Adelaide win, they are virtually assured of a finals spot. If they lose, it leaves the door open for Richmond, Collingwood, Gold Coast and West Coast.

Adding to the intrigue of the match is that it is anyone’s guess who will win. Using last week as a gauge, North would be the obvious favourite. They are coming off a convincing win over Western Bulldogs, while Adelaide more or less threw away a home win against Richmond.

Since then though, the Roos have lost two of their most experienced players to suspension. Daniel Wells won’t be missed so much, only because he’s hardly played all year. Brent Harvey, on the other hand, will be hugely missed. He leads the club this year in disposals, inside 50s and running bounces and is ranked second for goal assists. Without his run and carry the contest will even up considerably.

Using the previous week as a form guide for these sides is troublesome, however. The story of the season for both the Roos and Crows is that any time they start to show form, they lose a game they shouldn’t. Similarly, when they are about to be written off, they beat a team they shouldn’t.

This is perhaps more true for North than it is Adelaide. Adelaide have indeed lost to teams they shouldn’t have (such as Melbourne and Carlton), but they haven’t really beaten anyone in a class above. Aside from wins over Port Adelaide in Round 15 and North Melbourne in Round 13, the Crows haven’t beaten a team currently above them on the ladder.

In that respect, North have beaten all the teams above them, except Geelong. Their main weakness would appear to be teams around their spot on the ladder. This year they have suffered losses to Essendon, Collingwood, Gold Coast and Adelaide – all teams positioned between seventh and 11th. Obviously, that works in Adelaide’s favour.

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Using the season so far as a form guide is also troublesome though. These sides have been so up and down that no one knows what to expect from them. So what of their recent form against each other? Adelaide have won their last three games against North, including the famous come-from-behind win in Round 9 of last year. Another tick for the Crows.

Before those three consecutive wins North had won the last three, including a win in 2012 when the Crows were headed for a top-four finish. That makes it three wins each from the last six matches.

Their personal statistics for the season don’t help to pick a winner either. The Roos average five more disposals per game, the Crows five more inside 50s. The Crows average one more clearance per game, the Roos two more hit-outs.

One area Adelaide do have North covered is their tall scoring options. Josh Jenkins, Taylor Walker and James Podsiadly have combined for 93 goals this season, with another 44 from Eddie Betts. North have had a problem with their forward line all year.

Drew Petrie has finally found some form of late, but he had a very slow start to the year. Aaron Black hasn’t come anywhere near the form he showed last year and Robbie Tarrant has barely played a game. The less said about Majak Daw’s contribution, the better.

The addition of Ben Brown to the Roos’ forward setup looks to be a success, but it is still in its infancy. All told, the North tall forwards that will play on Saturday have combined for only 71 goals this year, with Lindsay Thomas contributing a further 38. With Harvey out of the side, who has kicked 27 goals for the season, the key forwards will need to stand up.

With everything taken into account, Adelaide should be favourites to sneak home with a win, but with the way the Roos and Crows have gone about things this year you would be well advised to throw the form guide out the window. One thing is for certain, if you are a supporter of the Pies, Tigers, Eagles or Suns, you may be in for an emotional rollercoaster of an afternoon.

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