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Twenty-two rounds down, one to go. With seven teams confirmed to play finals this year, the battle for that last place in the eight is set to go down to the wire.
Richmond’s 26-point victory over St Kilda to end Round 22 has seen them enter the eight for the first time this season, this coming on the back of an eight-match winning streak bookended with wins over the Saints.
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The Tigers’ sudden rise into finals contention comes after the full-time siren appeared to have sounded on their season at 10:20pm on June 20, following an eleven-point loss to the Sydney Swans at the MCG on the Friday night stage.
Next week sees the Tigers face up to the premiership favourites, and likely minor premiers, in the rematch of that Round 14 match to be played in the unfamiliar surroundings of ANZ Stadium.
It’s only a short walk from where the Tigers posted their biggest win for the season, a 113-point mauling of the GWS Giants at Spotless Stadium.
But even so, Saturday’s trip to the larger Olympic venue will be uncharted territory for the current Richmond side, and despite their eight-match winning streak, they will enter the match against the Swans as underdogs.
The Tigers have played there once previously, way back in 2002 when Danny Frawley was the coach and the likes of Matthew Richardson and current Giants coach Leon Cameron were still playing.
The side lost by 40 points to a Swans side, then coached by caretaker coach Paul Roos, who were farewelling Captain Courageous Paul Kelly and Andrew Dunkley after both served the club for more than a decade.
Now, come this Saturday night and the Tigers will arrive in Sydney needing simply to win to complete a miraculous turnaround many thought impossible after they first lost to the Swans back in Round 14, placing them 16th on the ladder.
Not only that, they could also deny the Swans the minor premiership on percentage, given Hawthorn posts a huge win over Collingwood the previous evening.
The Hawks defeated Geelong by 23 points to keep their hopes of a third consecutive top-place finish alive, and all but end any hopes Chris Scott’s men have of finishing in the top two.
They must defeat the injury-ravaged Pies by at least five goals on Friday night, then hope that the Swans cop at least a ten-goal hiding from the Tigers 21 hours later, to snatch the minor premiership from John Longmire’s men.
However, the Swans’ impressive form since Round 4 means that the latter is unlikely to happen, meaning they have all but secured their first top-place finish since 1996, and their first two finals at home.
Just who they will host will be decided in a key match to be played between Fremantle and Port Adelaide at Paterson’s Stadium on Saturday.
In what shapes as the most intriguing of scenarios, the winner will very likely travel to Sydney to play the Swans in the first qualifying final to be played at ANZ Stadium, while the loser will host an elimination final, likely to be against the West Coast Eagles.
For Fremantle, a win would see them make another long trip across the country, while a loss could see them possibly face the Eagles in an elimination final, or a resurgent Richmond.
Port Adelaide’s 103-point thrashing of Carlton revived its chances of a first top-four finish since 2007, but their finals destiny will ultimately be shaped by the trip to Perth.
The West Coast Eagles, Adelaide Crows and Collingwood are the other three teams still in contention for the final place in the eight, but all three have opponents of contrasting difficulty to tackle in their respective final round ties.
The Crows will know by the time they take on certain wooden-spooners St Kilda whether they are still in with the faintest of chances of making the finals. To sneak into the eight, they must hope that both Collingwood and Richmond lose their respective matches against Hawthorn and the Sydney Swans.
However, they will be disadvantaged by the fact that the West Coast Eagles play their final round tie against the Gold Coast Suns earlier in the day, and with their own finals destiny also resting on the aforementioned matches involving the Pies and Tigers.
Therefore, the Crows will know by the end of the first quarter against the Saints whether they will be playing for a finals place, or for pride.
Should they snatch that last place in the eight, they could end up playing the Power in an elimination final with the reward for the winner being a trip to Sydney or Perth in the second round of the finals.
The Dees are only ahead of the Saints in 17th place on percentage, and must defy a seven-year hoodoo at Etihad Stadium, where they play the finals-bound Kangaroos on Saturday night, to all but hand the Saints their 27th wooden spoon.
Injury-ravaged Collingwood, who are a game ahead of the Eagles, Crows and Suns in ninth place on the ladder, must upset Hawthorn on Friday night, and then hope that Richmond loses to the Sydney Swans on Saturday, to sneak into the finals at the expense of Damien Hardwick’s men.
Otherwise, the Pies risk missing the finals for the first time since 2005, a scenario which appears likely given their horror injury toll which only got worse on the weekend with injuries to Dane Swan, Brent Macaffer and Clinton Young.
This leaves us with two virtual dead-rubbers, with Essendon guaranteed to play finals even if it loses to Carlton on Saturday afternoon, and with the final match of the regular season between the Western Bulldogs and GWS Giants being a meaningless affair as neither can make the finals.a
This will make for what should be an intriguing final round of the season, where almost every match will determine the final order of the ladder.
Can the Hawks snatch the minor premiership from the Sydney Swans? Will Fremantle travel to the Harbour City or host a sudden-death final in the first week? Will Richmond finish ninth? And who will snatch that last place in the eight up for grabs?
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