The late, but not too late, EPL prediction guide

By Joseph Cummins / Roar Rookie

So it’s that time again, a time of optimism and belief. It’s time for the 2014-15 Premier League season.

Well, it’s technically already begun, but it’s not too late to preview the contenders for trophies this season.

Having followed the Premier League since its start more than 20 years ago, and seeing the league have one of the most frantic transfer windows to date, the one prediction that’s certain is it will be an unpredictable roller coaster ride.

But for anyone who still cares about such things, here are my slightly late predictions for the current season.

Premiership Champions – Manchester City
I see this as a two-horse race. I would like to think Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United have made the type of signings to make a challenge, but I can’t see past Manchester City and Chelsea fighting it out between them.

It will be interesting to see how Jose Mourinho does in his second season as he can no longer use the ‘small horse’ excuse after spending more than £70 Million on Diego Costa, Cesc Fabregas and Luis Filipe. On paper you would have to feel Chelsea have the strongest starting 11.

Thibout Courtois being instated as number one ahead of Petr Cech was a bold decision, Fabregas will be the perfect replacement for Frank Lampard and if Costa can replicate his Atletico Madrid form and not his World Cup form, Chelsea will finally have a 30-goal striker they have lacked since 2012.

That all being said, I still cannot see past Manchester City this season. Stevan Jovetic will be like a new signing based on pre-season form, while the recruitments of Mangala and Fernando will add the grit and steel they sometimes lacked away from home. If they can keep Vincent Kompany, David Silva and Sergio Aguero fit for more than 30 games this season, then you cannot see past Manuel Pellegrini’s men retaining the coveted title.

Top Four – Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool
The hardest thing to predict this season will be who will finish fourth. I feel Arsenal have done great business in the transfer window, and the Community Shield win illustrates a new found belief in Arsene Wenger’s men (Not boys anymore).

That being said, the reluctance to spend big on a striker and a holding midfielder will be their undoing, especially away from home. Liverpool are going to be the most unpredictable team this season, and the sale of Luis Suarez is huge. No matter how many players you buy, Suarez was the third best player in the world in 2013/2014, and although Liverpool have signed nine players, have they replaced Suarez? I don’t think so.

Spurs did the same thing with Gareth Bale, and with the closest replacement Erik Lamela being injured, that creative spark was clearly missed. I do feel if anyone is to break into the top four, Spurs are the most likely. It does sound like a broken record, for the first time since 2010 the pressure is off Spurs to finish in the top four. The less publicity this gets, the more time Mauricio Pochettino can build a team.

Spurs had a great 11 on paper last season, but they were not a team. Chemistry takes more than just 11 great talents on a pitch, and Spurs clearly lacked character and chemistry when it most mattered. If the players start playing like a team and not individuals, then you never know.

Relegation – West Bromwich Albion, Leicester, Burnley
There is just one instance in the history of the Premiership that all three promoted teams have gone straight down, and I do not see that changing this year.

Burnley were a delight to watch last season, they were tipped for relegation and finished second, which is a fantastic achievement. Sean Dyche deserves a lot of plaudits, and regardless of where they finish this season Burnley should stick with him. He shows promising potential, however with a limited transfer budget you can’t see past Burnley going back down, but I do hope they prove me wrong.

Leicester is a strange one. They ran away with the Championship but the gap between England’s top two divisions is hefty. Leicester have a strong team and home form will be key for Nigel Pearson’s men, but minus Leonardo Ulloa, another Championship player, they lack experience at this level. I do not see where the goals will come from to keep them up.

West Brom have been the yo-yo club of England for some time, and they are about to back down. Alan Irvine seems a lovely guy but the lack of well known signings could see their stint in the Premier League over. This is a tough call as QPR need their new signings to gel sooner rather than later, but the Harry Redknapp factor should save them.

League Cup – Tottenham
They have the squad to do it, and I believe Spurs fans will be happier with silverware than a top four place. I do feel this trophy has been cast aside in recent seasons, but you saw how Man City enjoyed winning the trophy last season, and any fan, no matter what they say initially, loves any silverware.

FA Cup – Chelsea
Mourinho’s men failed to win silverware last season, and two seasons without any accolades would be a crisis for Chelsea. Mourinho will know this better than anyone. In terms of one-off games, Mourinho is the master, and I can’t see past Chelsea going trophy-less again this season.

Champions League – Bayern Munich
Can’t see past them now they have Robert Lewandowski. They’ve had a brilliant pre-season and a full year with Pep Guardiola, which should give them the belief and talent to go all the way.

Europa League – no prediction
I couldn’t predict this due to the fact I believe one of the teams who finishes third in their Champions League group will go all the way. I can’t see an English team winning it, not due to talent, but more because the perceived value of winning the cup is not a priority, which is a tragedy.

I hope you guys enjoyed my predictions, and feedback is welcome. I hope this blog takes off.

The Crowd Says:

2014-08-27T20:45:35+00:00

Flitee

Guest


Always a bit skeptical when a club comes out and says a player will not be sold. Quite often it means they're available for the right price! Still think Villa would be safe with or without Vlaar anyway, as they are the only club among the annual strugglers that have a prolific goalscorer. It would just be a little bit more uncomfortable without him, and put more pressure on Benteke to provide the goals.

2014-08-27T14:23:07+00:00

Oliver

Guest


With Giroud out for an extended period of time as well as a sub par start to Sanchez's EPL career I'm struggling to see how Arsenal will have the goals in them to make the 4. Possibly the year we see Tottenham or Everton crack the 4 I feel

2014-08-27T12:17:03+00:00

Carl

Roar Rookie


Lambert and the new CEO have stated publicly that Vlaar will not be sold, so that locks him in for the Villa thankfully, at least for this window. I know everyone is down on us this season but being a Villa fan and having watched every game for as long as I can remember (including preseason) I can honestly say that this years Villa team looks stronger than the last two seasons, or they will do once they start getting the likes of Benteke and Kozak back from injury anyway. I think my early favourites to go down would be the same as yours (especially if Neil Warnock really gets the palace job), however, I think it will be a close run thing again this season, even if not as close as last season. edit: immediately after posting this eurosport popped up on my phone to say Neil Warnock got the job so...

AUTHOR

2014-08-27T09:33:37+00:00

Joseph Cummins

Roar Rookie


HI Oliver, I think you can't judge the league based on two games. I was at the Spurs-QPR game and i do agree they looked extremely poor, but with Redknapp and Hoddle they have two extremely experienced managers at the top level. Once Fer is fully fit in the middle and they bring a CB in, i think they should be fine. I did predict them only just to survive (17th) , and it's a marathon not a sprint there are still 36 games to go.

2014-08-27T06:50:32+00:00

Josh

Roar Rookie


I agree with Oliver, Liverpool are not Tottenham and even in defeat at City played the same effective football seen last season. QPR are bound for relegation alongside Burnley and Palace for me. QPR were horrible at White Hart Lane and unconvincing at home against Hull where as Leicester were admirable away to Chelsea, should of lead with Nugent clear on goal, and deserved the point at home to Everton. After watching City so closely against the Reds I have to go with them as Champions so agree with you there, my gut feeling is Chelsea will run 2nd with Liverpool 3rd and Arsenal 4th.

2014-08-27T04:31:14+00:00

Oliver

Guest


I dont know how QPR aren't in your relegation predictions. The match against Tottenham clearly showed they can't attack and can't defend and if it wasn't for Burnley (still a 2nd tier football team) they'd be last. I think your view of Liverpool is simply inaccurate. There not Tottenham, they have depth and I feel they'll move forward from last season and challenge again. As for league champions I cant go past Chelsea, they're a better team then City no doubt.

2014-08-26T20:16:59+00:00

Flitee

Guest


Leicester are by far the best of the promoted teams (No, I'm not a fan!) and unless QPR get rid of vastly overrated 'Arry (Which I think they will before Xmas) they will be the ones going down. Rio Ferdinand??? Barely good enough for the Championship. Stoke have been abject so far and unless there's vast improvement, they won't be too far away and if Villa sell Vlaar, count them in too. Palace are very poor and Hull will struggle if they qualify for Europe.Agree with the top four, probably in that order too. Burnley, QPR and Palace to drop for me.

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