As the curtain closes on the home-and-away season, quick analysis of the ladder shows a few interesting things.
For the first time in 22 years, three teams can only be separated by percentage for the minor premiership. The last time it happened, Geelong, Footscray and Collingwood were all on 16 wins. It could have been four teams if not for the eventual premiers, the West Coast Eagles, who finished with 15 and a draw.
This time around, the Swans loss to the Tigers has left us with three teams on 17 wins.
At the other end of the scale, it has been 10 years since the wooden spoon has been decided by percentage. Prior to this, I didn’t bother looking past 1987 and couldn’t find another. In 2004, it was the Tigers who had the lower percentage than Hawthorn.
What a difference 10 years makes. But it does highlight how different the journey can be from the bottom to either the top, or eighth or ninth.
The top of our table shows how even it is between the top three If you throw Fremantle in the mix, who are just one more game behind, it surprises me that it has taken 22 years to get such an even top four
Richmond secured a spot in the finals with 12 wins. The lowest in our final eight era, and most recently, was Essendon with 10 wins in 2009. It was as high as 14 in 2012 when North Melbourne and Fremantle finished seventh and eighth.
Winning half your games may not get you into the top eight anymore, something West Coast, Adelaide and Collingwood might be having a few schooners over today.
Sunday’s dead rubbers showed just how important some sides take to finishing off the season well. Although it was too little too late, West Coast and Adelaide produced big wins that left them wondering why. The Giants sent off Josh Hunt in a way that the Dogs would have liked to send off Gia. Lenny’s month long farewell was complete without a win.
One lot of fans are thanking the Swans, the others are packing away their scarves for another season.
With the real season starting this Friday night, every game is a blockbuster. I for one think this has been one of the more even seasons we have seen in recent times.
A premier could come from fourth or fifth. We could see fifth and sixth bow out in week one. The top two could go put in straight sets. The final can once again include only interstate teams.
So many possibilities. Gee I love September.
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
I think considering the sides in question finished 3rd and 4th and played a game only a matter of weeks ago that was decided by a kick, it's a fair summary. No other results would have affected 4. It is definitely a possibility that a side from 4th or 5th can win it this year.
dms1972
Guest
Technically, yes, the difference between third and fourth was one David Mundy kick after the siren, if you take that one moment in isolation. While matches and seasons can and are defined by such moments, those moments count for nothing without everything else that goes into a match and a season. Otherwise, you could argue that GWS (who beat Sydney and almost beat Hawthorn) and Collingwood (who also beat Sydney, beat Port and almost beat Geelong) were so close to finishing top 4 this year. But where did those clubs finish? St Kilda not only beat Fremantle, they thrashed them, yet they finish the year on the bottom with just 4 wins. The reality is so much more than just a kick after the siren to win the match or win here and there. The majority of footy tipsters around the country will be picking Sydney and Hawthorn this week because, despite the closeness of the final ladder positions, perception tells you that those two clubs are more than just percentage better than Geelong and Fremantle.
GrumpyOldBastard@Singapore
Guest
The diference between third and fourth this year was one David Mundy kick after the siren.
dms1972
Guest
Can't see North, Essendon or Richmond beating any of the top 4. Port are a chance of progressing to a preliminary final but that's as far as they're likely to go. History is very much against teams 5-8. In 14 season under the current system, only twice have teams gone from an elimination final to a preliminary final. Hawthorn came from sixth in 2001 to lose to Essendon by 9 points in the prelim, knocking off 3rd placed Port Adelaide along the way, and Collingwood, in 2007, also came from sixth, beating 3rd placed West Coast in extra time in the second semi prior to losing to Geelong by 5 points in the prelim. So, 26 of 28 elimination final winners since 2000 have been knocked out in week two of the finals, and no elimination finalist has progressed through to a Grand Final. To go even further, under the current system, not even the 4th placed team has won a premiership. Sydney (2006) and Collingwood (2002) are the only 4th placed sides to progress to a Grand Final in 14 seasons under the current system. The top three sides generally finish top 3 for a very good reason. They are the best three sides in the competition. Therefore, you'd expect them to win when it matters.