Accuse me all you like of going off early, but the Roosters will win the comp.
For most of the season, I doubted they had what it takes to achieve that rugby league rarity – successive premierships – but they won me over completely last Saturday night.
The Roosters’ famed defence of 2013 turned up and provided the foundation for a fantastic victory over an in-form Melbourne Storm.
Craig Bellamy’s men were superb in the first half, when their completion rate was an impressive 90 per cent. They dropped a little in the second half but still completed 81 per cent of their sets over the entire game.
Few, if any, teams could hold Melbourne out in such circumstances but the Roosters re-built their famous brickwall and shut down the opposition time after time.
I was really taken by what I saw and it is defence more than anything else that wins premierships.
Trent Robinson’s men still have much to improve on in attack but when the finals begin, they’ll be right on the money.
Thursday night’s game against arch-rivals Souths shapes as a physical affair and now that their defence is in order, I’ll be watching closely to see what the Roosters do with the ball.
It looks to be merely a matter of fine-tuning. After all, they did score 24 points against the Storm so there isn’t a great deal to worry about.
Of the other contenders, I have my doubts about Souths ending their 42-year title drought.
North Queensland made them look mediocre a couple of weeks back and even though there’s a bit of Bulldog still in me, Canterbury was desperately unlucky to fall to the Bunnies last Thursday night.
The Dogs really put it to Souths and are back in the groove, steeling themselves for a gritty finals surge.
The Manly Sea Eagles may well finish as minor premiers if they can get the better of the Cowboys on Sunday but I have an inkling that their best football has already been played this year. Their last few weeks have been patchy, to say the least.
Manly has heaps of big match players but they seem to have gone off the boil. Losing Jamie Buehrer will really hurt them and there seems to be injury worries over Matty Ballin and Daly Cherry-Evans.
I really felt sorry for the Panthers. They were clearly the better side at Brookvale, but lost in the final minute.
At least they know they’ll be in the finals and with Brent Kite, James Segeyaro and David Simmons ready to play again, they must give themselves a great chance of toppling the dangerous Warriors at home on Sunday night.
Panthers fullback Matty Moylan continues to impress. What a terrific young player! We might be watching the next NSW Origin fullback, he has all the skills.
This game, the last of the regular NRL season, should be a thriller. It’s a toss of the coin affair and I suspect victory might go to the Warriors.
Parramatta were the biggest disappointment of Round 25. With so much to gain they folded alarmingly against Newcastle in the second half. I couldn’t believe my eyes – Parra were as bad as the Knights were good.
The Eels will have to wait another season for their return to finals football, but they have only themselves to blame.
Arthur Beatsons Mum
Guest
wrong!
Dr Yes
Guest
I look for: - a big, strong pack that can win territory and defend their line - top-quality playmakers (usually the spine) who can control the game and generate great flair in attack - speed, safe-hands, and some strength in the backs Manly look a concern in the first category. Their squad is well down on troops from last year, and injuries make things significantly worse. Watmough has a huge motor, but I don't think they have enough top-rated middle men. Souths look a concern in the second category. When the biggest games roll around, you need more than bash-and-barge. You need an attack that can match the best in the game and generate points when none seem likely. Can't see that in Luke, Reynolds, Keary, Sutton. Inglis cuts it, but he's a tackle-break weapon, not a flyer - often he's an advantage at fullback, but sometimes not. And the Dogs and Roosters have also raised question marks about the first category for the Bunnies. Cowboys are strong in the first category and obviously Thurston kills it in the second - but the rest of their spine are quite questionable when the biggest, toughest, high-pressure games roll around. Penrith are well balanced, but down on troops - particularly with Wallace out. Roosters have all of above - but maybe not for first game or two of finals (minus Friend, Guerra, Napa, FPN). FPN plays a much under-appreciated role. Wrecking-ball just like his name. Makes his stats look poor, but geez, he creates opportunities from the next play-the-ball. Should be interesting.
Alex L
Roar Rookie
Process of elimination does indeed indicate that the Roosters are the best chance by process of elimination. Manly have a fragile forward pack, especially with the injuries they've had, so they're ruled out. Souths look poor every time a team stands up to them in the middle of the park, and in the finals every team will be up for that battle. Bulldogs have lost too many of their strong ball carriers with both Pritchard and Kasiano both spectators for the rest of the season. Cowboys are heavily reliant on Thurston, eventually he has to have a bad game and they will lose. Melbourne couldn't beat the Roosters last time, probably won't next time either. Nobody else is worth discussing as the chances of them even playing the Roosters are near zero.
Mark Ferguson
Roar Rookie
As a mad Rooster supporter all i will say is Go Easts and to never discount Manly they are tough buggers that are ALWAYS there or there abouts. Souffs meh.
KB
Guest
Mainly because I will have lost my voice cheering chookie touchdowns and hits. CHOOKSback2BACK
Mitchoh
Guest
The most impressive performance this year for mine is Souths smashing Manly. If souths regain that form they will win the premiership.
Mitchoh
Guest
Refs don't like chooks because they are grubs. No one likes grubs except chooks.
Mitchoh
Guest
Ballin gone, manly gone
Mitchoh
Guest
I don't expect we'll hear a lot out of you after Thursday night KB.
Freddy from Bondi
Guest
I didn't say that Souffs were the only team that would fall apart if they lost a key player did I? But in answer to your question, IMO the roosters have two dominate halves, so if either one were lost I dont think it would be a fatal blow because there are plenty of other attacking threats. Same with Manly...if they lost Lyon I still wouldn't write them off. But... Storm without any of the big 3 = gone Cowboys without Thurston = gone Souffs without Burgess, Inlgis or Luke = gone anoyone else in the top 8 I believe can cover the loss of one key player...
Matthew Edwards
Guest
Because it is obvious that they are under the cap?
john badseed
Guest
What possible reasons in the 'modern' NRL could possibly cause that to happen befuddled?
Brian S
Guest
I'm glad to see nobody rates Melbourne Storms chances? we love flying under the radar!;)
djcooper
Roar Guru
The way the panthers played on Sunday convinced me they are a chance especially considering kite and segeyaro are back this week. As for the storm, they were in control for 65 minutes but then lost their way after smith's wayward pass. Im sure they would have taken a lot out of that game. The cowboys have been rolling along nicely and still managed to close out the game on Monday even though they wernt at their best. Maybe it is wishful thinking but I can see one of these sides pushing hard in the finals.
Knight Vision
Guest
I want to know why more people aren't asking " how are they under the cap ? " -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Elma Dudd
Guest
I expect to see his head explode like a watermelon in the coaches box at some stage of the finals.
paul
Guest
Buhrer gone ballan gone womanly dads army girls are gooooooooooonnnnne. Little tooves god bless him he will probably spit his dummy out and chuck a tantrum absolute gold!!!!!
Muzz
Guest
Sorry to hear that about Ballin mate, he's a good man.Luck with injuries may play it's part this year. Credit to the Pennies and the future looks bright for them.They were surprisingly competitive against your mob with a number of players out injured.
Elma Dudd
Guest
Yeah mate , had a ball with a few of the Manly boys before heading out on the train last year. One of the key talking points was an alround view that we didn't want refs to play a part ..DOH Im sure they weren't nearly as jovial as myself come fulltime though.
eagleJack
Guest
Muzz, it seems both our clubs have an issue at no.9. Manly's maybe a little more serious. Matty Ballin is out for the season after 182 consecutive games for the club (played 22mins against the Pennies with a broken leg!) His part time back up Buhrer is gone. I'm thinking Jayden Hodges will get a run. We poached him from the Cowboys so will be interesting to see how he goes against them.