The Rugby Championship Week 3: The big questions

The Rugby Championship is back this week, and so is the panel asking the big questions every Friday.

With all our respective teams playing different opposition, Biltong, Digger and I were keen to get to the bottom of the big issues.

Here are this week’s questions, and once again please feel free to post your own thoughts, or indeed, lodge your own big question. The guys and I will tackle them during the day as we get a chance.

Brett McKay asks: At the time of writing, there are 2.15 IRB world ranking points between South Africa in second (89.34) and Australia in third (87.19). Is there a fair reflection, or do the two sides feel closer or further away than that on current form?
I think had I asked this question after Round 1, the answer would’ve been no, and similarly the answer after Round 2 is probably yes. There are all sorts of sciences and witchcraft that go into the calculations of the rankings, but to me, the two teams feel as close as listed.

But is that because Australia have improved to some degree – even with the Eden Park debacle – or is it because South Africa are treading water while they get their new combinations down pat?

That’s probably the harder question, and in hindsight, the one I should’ve asked.

The worry, in my mind, is that the Springboks can go a lot further if they find something resembling their best form. I’m just not sure about the Wallabies at the moment. We’re at the bottom of the performance cycle again, and so my expectations have been reset. Wherever they are, they need to beat South Africa this weekend, for Ewen’s, for their own, and for all our sakes, collectively.

Biltong: I never pay much heed to the rankings. The only ranking for me that makes sense is recent history against an opponent to see whether we are better than they are. Prior to the home Rugby Championship match against Australia in 2012, we had a very poor record against Australia and have only recently turned it around.

If the Springboks beat Australia at home and away this season I believe we are deservedly in second place, if not, it is as close as it has been since our re-introduction.

Digger: My gut feel is this Wallaby squad is in a better position in terms of their culture and attitude than they were twelve months ago. So yes, I feel they are closer to South Africa and would suggest the rankings are a reasonable reflection between the two sides on recent form.

Perth will give a very clear indication of how far the Wallabies have closed the gap, if at all, and whether my gut feel is correct.

Diggercane asks: Will the All Blacks scrum withstand the expected onslaught from the Argentinean ‘Bajada’ in Napier?
I am sooooo looking forward to this. The All Blacks scrum is often considered one of their weaker points but I believe it has improved over Steve Hansen’s reign and I’ll be looking to see if that shows against an impressive Pumas unit in Napier.

With Tony Woodcock also unavailable, it will be a great test for the often-maligned loosehead alternatives to show their scrummaging is up there with the best, along with how the rest of the pack works together to counter the threat the Argentinean scrum presents.

I cannot admit to being overly confident here and expect that we will be placed under immense pressure, but if the All Blacks can secure all of their own feeds without too much disruption then that would be a pretty good night.

Biltong: This is an interesting question, and a situation I am going to watch very closely on the weekend. Most importantly, it will be interesting whether Argentina will get away with the same tactics they did against South Africa, I expect not, Hansen is a smart cookie and will have a long talk to the referee beforehand.

Brett: I don’t mind admitting that this former non-tackling scrumhalf had to look up what the ‘Bajada’ was before answering this. And now it all makes sense why I could hear a co-ordinated chant coming from the Argentinean scrum. So that’s what all that was about…

Good question Digger. I think the All Blacks might struggle early on, but will find a way to adapt and deal with it. Whether that involves Wyatt Crockett pulling yet more wool down over the ref’s eyes is hard to say (and easy to speculate), but they’ll come up with something. And as I mentioned to a shocked co-host on the Cheap Seats podcast this week, I’m really looking forward to the scrum contest either way.

Biltongbek asks: With Bernard Foley selected at 10 for Australia and Matt Toomua at 12, would it not have been better to put Kurtley Beale at 15 to play the “Willie le Roux” role and join the line with Israel Folau at wing to play off Beale?
I wonder whether Folau has the same confidence in other players as he has when he is playing off Beale, he does play with Foley for the Waratahs and should know him well enough. But I haven’t seen Folau being as effective without Beale.

Digger: No, because I believe Folau is a better fullback than Beale. With Foley at 10 and a flatter attacking backline likely, I think the Wallabies should be looking to play more off Folau, who can attract more defenders and offload in the tackle. He could also cause some real headaches on defence along with another big target in Tevita Kuridrani.

While his defensive prowess has been questioned he has still yet to complete a full season as a Test fullback and he is hardly the first player to be found wanting at times against the All Blacks. With Adam Ashley-Cooper also part of the back three I would hope his experience and ability to organise will be good for Folau and he will only continue to improve and should be given ample opportunity to do so.

But it won’t matter a jot what the backline looks like if the Wallaby eight don’t front.

Brett: No, I don’t think so either, because Beale under the high ball has never filled me with a lot of confidence. And Beale at fullback would guarantee one thing: a barrage of ‘Spiders’ le Roux and Ruan Pienaar bombs with Jean de Villiers chasing through to provide the muscle, and Brian Habana hovering from crumbs. No, thanks.

Toomua is a different sort of 12, of that there’s no question, but he can run to the line and put someone through a gap like any good playmaker can. It’s up to Folau to show us that he can run off anyone and that he’s not dependent on Beale to look dangerous.

Tips for TRC Round 3

Brett: #NZLvARG – The All Blacks will probably win this by 12 or 15, but if there’s more than a converted try in it with half an hour to go, they’ll had to have played very well. The Pumas play a freewheeling game off the back of their physicality that even the best defensive sides will have trouble with. Will be a cracking contest though, can’t wait for it.

#AUSvRSA – Pure and simple, the Wallabies need to win this game in Perth. If they can’t… well, I don’t really want to think about it. Ewen McKenzie’s given his pack a chance to redeem themselves, and they need to redeem themselves as if it’s the last Test of the year. Or it might just be, for a few of them. Very happy to see Nick Phipps and Foley in the halves; it just made sense. Wallabies by eight

Digger: #NZLvARG – Currently looking like it will be wet in Napier so I am expecting a pretty physical affair from a very good Pumas team but I feel the All Blacks will have too much firepower from the bench in the last 20.

#AUSvRSA – I am backing the Wallabies to get up in Perth because, as I alluded to earlier, I do believe there is a better attitude and belief within this team. After Eden Park, I am picking they will be determined to make amends this week.

While the Springboks have also been heavily criticised for their performances and won’t lack for motivation, I am unconvinced they have their combinations fully sorted and functioning along with a few players that appear a bit underdone after long layoffs. So the Wallabies for me.

Biltong: #NZLvARG – I think Argentina will cop a few penalties in the first quarter of the game, mainly for their scrum work, and this will take the wind out of their sails. They will still be ferocious in the contact area and contest the breakdowns well, but we all know the All Blacks will be too good.

#AUSvRSA – This one is hard to call, as there are too many unknowns. First up, neither team has really performed yet, and both have the ability to lift their game significantly.

South Africa is missing Willem Alberts more than they realise, he is the one that makes their pack go forward in the contact areas, being on the back foot against Argentina has not yet realised the potent pace and power attack from the Springboks out wide.

Their combinations at halfback and midfield have not clicked at all. Will the front-foot ball come against Australia and will their back line finally click?

Will the Australian pack fire? Their back line should be more potent and their exit strategies will help them play in better field positions, but it all depends on their pack.

I am copping out and predicting a draw.