For the past decade, the big three races Australia has to offer, the Caulfield Cup (2400m), the Cox Plate (2040m) and the Melbourne Cup (3200m), have created great interest from an international perspective given the great prestige and prize money on offer.
And the international raiders have dominated in recent years thanks to the likes of Americain, Dunaden and Red Cadeaux.
But that will all change in 2014.
When looking at the early markets for the big three, the top of the betting is dominated by either Australian or New Zealand trained runners. And recent history suggests that Australasian runners have dominated the major races.
Take a look at the Caulfield Cup to start with. Fawkner, once regarded as a sprinter, charged home from well back to sweep past some of the best stayers Australia had to offer, along with the lone international runner Dandino.
Then seven days later came the Cox Plate, where a three-year-old maiden, Shamus Award, defeated a hot field, including two overseas runners, Side Glance and Mull Of Killough.
But the main race internationals have their eyes on is the Melbourne Cup. In 2013, there were nine overseas trained runners and while they filled placings second to fifth, they were no match for Fiorente. He was was regarded as a listed horse when trained in the Northern Hemisphere, and he held the likes of Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos, both of which had failed in the big race previously.
Looking ahead to this year the focus will be on the international runners again, more so due to the fact that the Japanese are back, and the last time they came for the Spring they donkey-licked their rivals in the 2006 Melbourne Cup thanks to the Delta Blues and Pop Rock.
The Caulfield Cup won’t have a strong international flavour in 2014 numbers wise, but the two Japanese contenders, Admire Rakti and Bande, are almost certain starters for the time honoured 2400m handicap. However, they are only on the sixth line of betting behind the likes of The Offer, La Amistad and Rising Romance, and their form back in Japan is very suspect. But given they are from Japan, they have to be respected at this stage.
The hype surrounding the Cox Plate will be immense. Master Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien will send some of his up-and-coming gallopers, headed by Adelaide, who is half owned now by Australian interests, and Magician. They are both in the top half of betting, but their recent form has to be questioned, in particular Magician, who was beaten 13 lengths two starts back before running second in a very weak Group l race in America.
As for Adelaide, he is an up-and-comer who is lightly raced and did win a weak Group l event in the States against moderate opposition. For an inexperienced galloper to travel halfway around the world onto one of the trickiest tracks would have taken a massive effort from all concerned.
The other key international heading towards the WFA championship of the world is the Hong Kong veteran Dan Excel. He earned himself a trip Down Under with a dominant Singapore International Cup triumph, although what he defeated was very questionable outside the runner-up and stablemate, Military Attack. He has proven he can handle travelling, but to win the Cox Plate at his first start at the track, even for a classy galloper like him, would be quite remarkable.
Now the race they all want to win – the Melbourne Cup. The international raid, according to the early market, will be led by the Japanese runners, Admire Rakti and Bande, along with Cavalryman, Dandino and Pale Mimosa. The Japanese pair are unknown, and the following two have failed before in the race that stops the nation. No international has failed in the cup, then come back to win in a following year.
In fact, in recent history, only Empire Rose has achieved this feat. The other horse, Pale Mimosa, is a progressive mare for Dermot Weld, but will unlikely have a lead up run before the great race, and no international has won the cup without a lead-up run on Aussie soil since Vintage Crop in 1993. Mares, with the exception of Makybe Diva, also have a bad record in the race.
Other internationals vying for cup glory could be the Queen’s horse, Estimate, the 2013 Ascot Gold Cup winner, but her recent form is so-so at best, and doesn’t have the turn of foot to win. The other international being talked up is Protectionist, but his last start resulted in an average win against three rivals in the Kergorlay, along with the fact he hasn’t raced outside Germany and is yet to race in a field with no more than 10 runners.
Cheer now Australia, and possibly New Zealand. The two cups and the plate will be staying here for another 12 months.
graeme
Guest
Could it be that Bande or Admire Ratki could possibly look at tha Caufield Melbourne Cup double. Which of the two horses is better suited to the Caufield Cup and the Melbourne Cup.
Rod
Guest
Totally agree, I think the Japanese stayers are the most dominant in the world almost unbeatable at home. Don't know whether it is superior training or selective breeding but they have the wow factor. No two miles dawdlers its flat out all the way. They are the only ones I'm interested in.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Problem with Bande is that he is one dimensional- he sits on the speed, and when it comes to the Cups, it is near impossible to lead all the way. Only the very best do it, and I don't think Bande is. And Jaguar Mail is well and truly past it these days, so I don't rate that form. Yes, he was a maiden, but he was Group l placed two weeks prior and was given an outstanding ride by Chad.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
That Cox Plate was pretty bad Adam. It was won by a Maiden! A few horses in it weren't at their best (It's A Dundeel, Super Cool). Bande has run 3rd to Gold Ship who is world class, and he is an improver by the looks. Admire Rakti might be better suited in the Melbourne Cup given he beat Jaguar Mail easily over 3400m.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Magician is the best European horse aimed for the spring carnival. His form this year has been questionable but if he can regain his Breeders Cup form last year he'll have a great chance. He loves the fast ground he's sure to get at Moonee Valley and his last run in the states was encouraging. The short run in at Moonee Valley will be a challenge, something European jockeys are not used to.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Looking at the form of both Japanese runners, in my opinion, it's average at best, in particular Bande given he is yet to win at Group l level. I can't cop that the Cox Plate last year was weak. Happy Trails was a Group l winner, Fiorente was a Melbourne Cup runner up, Foreteller was a multiple Group l winner, Super Cool, It's A Dundeel...I could go on. In terms of the race itself, it wasn't one of the best, but field wise, it was one solid enough.
michael steel
Guest
Delta Blues won won Group 1 race before his Melbourne Cup win which was the Japanese St Leger. Pop Rock never won at Group 1 level. It was the equine virus which has kept them away and as you suggest the Japanese horses should not be taken lightly.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Have to say I disagree overall. Those 2 Japanese horses have better form than any of our stayers ,and I'm not sure Delta Blues & Pop Rock were any better credentialled coming herre. Our Cox Plate last year was very weak and from what we have seen thus far( this Spring) this one could be similar. I think the NZ 4yo crop of Rising Romance, Lucia Valentina & Puccini (needs dry) could be very prominent this Spring in Melbourne.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Yeah I remember the track watering campaign, I wonder if that would stand up today with trainers scratching so many runners on wet tracks already? ;) I think these Japanese runners need good tracks to be competitive and I like both Bande and Admire Ratki, but I'm always weary of when horses travel down under with great expectations. One case and point is Mount Athos.
Scuba
Guest
Brent, don't forget Eye Popper, who was beaten a lip in the 2005 Caulfield Cup after an extreme case of pilot error and was then somewhat of a victim of the Weld/Freedman campaign for track watering in the Melbourne Cup. Tokai Trick failed in both Cups in 2010, but struck two wet tracks which didn't suit. Admire Rakti's form around Gentildonna says that he has to be a chance if he travels well.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
That's just the nature of the beast these days Aransan. Australian breeders want sprinters, preferably two/three year olds, because that's where the money is. But you are right, the best from overseas isn't coming over to Australia, whether it be for a crack at the big races or purchased by Australian interests to race here. Waller proved that you don't need to buy the best horse to have success, and that seemingly is the way to go. Team Williams pride themselves on winning the big three races, and don't care what it costs. But taking away Green Moon, up to this point, their spending has failed and failed badly.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
These are always hypotheticals each year, Estimate is certainly up near the top tier of racing in Europe and will be making the trip for the Melbourne Cup this year.
Aransan
Guest
How many of the chances were actually born in Australia or New Zealand? We are not necessarily seeing the best northern hemisphere horses here either.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
I'd say overall the Cox Plate had more depth than the Singapore International Cup. The actual races themselves can't be compared because Shamus Award was given a great ride by Chad and Dan Excel was just that superior to his rivals in Singapore, including Side Glance, who was disappointing in the race.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
I'm intrigued by the Japanese horses and have them up there but they are a great unknown I mean we are basing their whole campaign on two horses from 2006. For me that is a worry but it also shows that the Japanese have great quality.
Scuba
Guest
I wasn't referring to the inclusion of NZ horses - what I meant is that Fiorente was an imported horse, trained by an Australian. He was not in any sense of the word an "Australasian horse". Same goes for Green Moon the year before. I don't rate Side Glance either - the Poms were laughing at us when he won a Group 1 the week after the Cox Plate - but to say that the Cox Plate was "strong" and the Singapore International Cup was "weak" can be shot down pretty quickly by looking at his performance in those two races.
theJudge
Guest
Agreed - the Japanese are the only ones to worry about.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
They are the only internationals I'm afraid of Addington for the lone reason that the Japanese have dominated when coming to Oz. But they'll have to cop some weight, and with Bande, he is a bit one dimensional in his racing style of setting the speed, and as we know, it's very, very hard to lead all the way.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Only including NZ thanks to Silent Achiever and Rising Romance. Based on the way they trialled back home, and the improvement they are going to make from the Memsie and Tramway respectively, they will take beating in whatever they contest. I don't rate Side Glance at all. Granted he won the McKinnon, but the field he was up against was either very weak, tuning up for the following Tuesday or were at the end of the campaign, tying in with the fact Spencer got away with absolute murder in front. I'll happily take the heat if I'm proven wrong, but from what I've seen so far this year, and in the early part of the Spring, Australia/New Zealand will dominate the big three.
Addington
Guest
Don't underestimate the Japanese ....remember the last time they were here the two of them (Delta Blues and Pop Rock) quinny'd the race !....they are simply superior to our horses at 3200 mtrs.