Roar Guru
The Wallabies will be looking to make it two wins from two starts when they host Argentina at Skilled Park on the Gold Coast on Saturday night. Join The Roar for live scores and updates from 8:00pm (AEST).
The two most improved sides of the 2014 campaign will meet each other for the 5th time in the Rugby Championship. Thus far the record reads Australia 4 Argentina 0.
It looks convincing enough, until you look at recent results.
Australia escaped with a one point win over Argentina in Perth last year and last week Argentina managed to hold the All Blacks for the first 39 minutes and had two close losses to an out of form South Africa.
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Ewen McKenzie has made some changes. Tatafu Polota-Nau comes into the starting line up and James Hanson moves to the bench. Ben McCalman replaces Wycliff Palu who is out with concussion and Adam Ashley Cooper is replaced by Peter Betham due to a neck injury sustained against South Africa last week.
From a selection point of view, I think the back row seems more balanced, however I believe Scott Fardy is perhaps lucky not to be replaced by Scott Higginbotham.
James Horwill might feel aggrieved for not making the starting XV and Rob Simmons will have hopefully worked on his discipline after giving away four penalties last weekend.
The suspension of Tomas Lavanini, Argentina’s most prolific line out winner for the campaign means he is replaced by Matias Alemanno. This could make a significant impact on the Argentinian scrum and contact area as Lavanini is a much bigger and more physical player than Alemanno, outweighing his compatriot by 15kg as well as being taller.
The only other changes in the Argentinian team is that both wings are replaced. Horacio Agulla and Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino are axed in favour of Juan Imhoff and Manuel Montero.
Argentina has shown to be the most physical pack in the Championship this season, man handling the Springboks in both their matches and being the most dominant pack in the New Zealand clash until the front rows were replaced late in the second half.
Although Argentina has shown enterprise with ball in hand they struggled to break down the New Zealand defences and it could be a similar situation as Australia showed great determination in defence against South Africa, who spend a good portion of time attacking the Australian line during the second half of their clash last week.
It must be said though that the South Africa attack was rather predictable and Argentina has shown some deft skills on attack this year.
Undoubtedly Australia is going to struggle in the scrums; I have seen little that will convince me otherwise. It is therefor imperative for them to use the advantage applied by the referee on opposition mistakes to the fullest.
They would want to avoid as many scrums as possible as Argentina will use their superior scrum to their advantage, be it to gain scrum penalties or simply to demoralise the Australian pack.
Any scrums on Australian ball must be cleared as quickly as possible as Argentina’s second shove could be detrimental to clean ball.
The line outs should be more of a contest with Tomas Lavanini suspended and there is no Victor Matfield to contend with.
Argentina will flood the breakdowns, Ben McMalman, Hooper and Fardy will need to work as a unit to negate the momentum of Argentina in the contact areas and Nick Phipps will have to dance smartly around the rucks.
There is no doubting the danger of the Australian backline, but all will be for nought if their forwards struggle to gain parity.
Argentina won’t lack endeavour out wide, hopefully for them the inclusion of Imhoff and Montero will provide them with more pace and guile out wide.
Australia will benefit from dry weather, even against the Springboks they struggled with territory last week and Argentina has shown Nicholas Sanchez is rather adept at playing territory. Wet conditions will undoubtedly favour Argentina.
One issue is not clear yet. In recent seasons this is the time when Argentina starts to fade, whether due to fatigue or simply the mental fatigue and disappointment of not being able to gain any results halfway through the tournament.
On face value this outfit looks to be a more determined, mentally stronger team and results could have gone to Argentina in Salta where a last ditch 20 minutes from South Africa denied them their first win in the tournament.
Expect an uncompromising contact area, expect the ball to be thrown about and lots of running meters. This could be a high scoring game as both teams will be desperate for a strong performance for different reasons, but ultimately this should be an entertaining game.
My tip: Australia to hold out Argentina by more than a score.