It has been done regularly over the past couple of years and it would be folly to write Geelong off and say their magnificent era is over, but there were signs in the loss to North Melbourne on the weekend that it might be for real this time.
Geelong won 16 games and a win is a win, but many of them were unimpressive this season, highlighted by their lowly percentage for a team that won that many games.
They were successful in all the close ones against several bottom teams too in Carlton, Greater Western Sydney and the Bulldogs, but the only narrow one they lost was to the Kangaroos in the semi-final.
The margin of six points did flatter them. The Cats hadn’t played as badly as that in a final during this wonderful period of success, although their first half in the 2012 elimination final loss to Fremantle was poor.
They also struggled against the Hawks, who have now won three of their past four against Geelong, which might indicate this grand line-up has seen many better days.
Since the 2011 premiership the Cats have tasted success just once in the past six finals and I know they have been making changes to their side. Last season they mutually moved on champions such as Paul Chapman and Joel Corey along with James Podsiadly to bring the next generation on, but are those youngsters going to be as good as the ones they have replaced?
Mitch Duncan and Steven Motlop, along with Josh Caddy, Allen Christensen and Cam Guthrie are part of the next generation that have taken the next step. But the jury is certainly out on George Horlin-Smith, Jackson Thurlow, Josh Walker and certainly Mitch Brown, who has been on the list for six seasons and played just 15 games.
Their ruckmen in Dawson Simpson and Hamish McIntosh keep getting injured and Mark Blicavs clearly isn’t ready for that role and probably never will be. They will get a fit Nathan Vardy back next year, but they are a quality key forward short and that might be resolved by playing Harry Taylor there, if they achieve their aim of recruiting Demon James Frawley.
The worst kept secret was revealed after they bowed out of the finals when the Cats said they were interested in Frawley to join ageing key defenders, Tom Lonergan, Jared Rivers, Corey Enright and Andrew Mackie down back.
Under recruiting genius Stephen Wells Geelong don’t make many mistakes when it comes to drafting and you would back him in to get it right again over the next couple of years. He will need to, as stars like Enright, James Kelly and Steve Johnson also near the end of stellar careers.
At this stage they are all continuing on in 2015 despite struggling in the finals. They deserve to go on their time, but is that time now?
Don Freo
Guest
The X-factor is the Cats' coach. He is a gun. No-one, I think, has ever rebuilt a side and still stayed in the top 4. I hope they get Frawley...I don't want Freo to take him...and he will improve them more. (Freo's young kids, Pearce and Smith are better).
Don Freo
Guest
Yep...that's the way it goes. If you lose a game, you are on the decline. Imagine if we measured Dan Lonergan's career on the basis of his inane articles.
New York Hawk
Guest
For what it is worth, I think Geelong will hover around the bottom of the eight and just outside for the next few years. This is as per Mark's comment, the marginal loss of their once-in-ageneration legends (Enright, Kelly, Bartel, Stevie J) will be a huge negative impact for the next tier players. You see this all the time. The reason they won't bottom out like the Lions, St Kilda, etc is that they have such a strong culture. But they nee to find probably one more elite midfielder and one more elite key forward. Hawkins scores all their goals and that will not win them a flag ever. One indulgent comment: I loved Chris Scott's comment after the round 22 loss to Hawthorn about how it is hard to get his big time players up for a match where the reward is simply playing the same team in the finals. Guess his players are so big-time they couldn't get up for anything less than a prelim. If only they realized they had to get up for games beforehand to play in one....
Jason K
Guest
This article makes the crazy assumption that because Geelong didn't win the Grand Final its era is over. That's quite a big assumption to make.
Jsteel
Roar Pro
Agreed. Geelongs midfield is almost entirely u23, why they may not reach the heights of the Geelong team before them (one of the great teams of all the time) I still believe this team should push for a premiership in 2-3 years, if not sooner
Bosk
Roar Rookie
Agreed. You forgot to mention another similarity between Brisbane & Geelong- The Lions not only lost playing talent but also one of the greatest coaches in AFL history, the incomparable Leigh Matthews, who they replaced with a couple of blokes who are clearly not up to the same standard. Geelong have done the same by replacing the excellent Bomber Thompson with Chris "I fell ass-backwards into a premiership" Scott. They also lost Ken Hinkley as an assistant, he was another huge driving force behind their success.
Bosk
Roar Rookie
Agreed Axle, next year the competition for top 4 spots could be the fiercest for many years. The Cats could still be in the hunt themselves if they land Frawley and can escape injuries to Selwood, Hawkins, Johnson & Taylor. If any of those four go down for a significant period they'll be in huge trouble, their depth in many areas is extremely thin. The bigger issue is weather or not they still have enough poised, experienced and talented players to keep playing their attacking game through the corridor. It still works a treat against poor teams who are easily rattled but this year we've seen it come undone against the better teams. They used to pride themselves on being the most difficult team to score against but taking risks through the middle of the ground does their defense no favors and I'm not sure that their ball use is still good enough to get away with it, many of their youngsters readily butcher it when put under pressure. The other problem is that improved AFL fitness standards allow teams to flood back to cover the fast break better than ever. Counterattcking is still a great way to score but by being so hideously reliant on Hawkins who is basically a one-trick pony (he's useless when the ball hits the deck) they rely far too much on counterattacking to isolate him one-on-one to score, and its hugely draining as we've seen from their horrible second-half performances all year.
EddyJ
Guest
Missing in all this discussion is the administration and management of the club. The clubs that have been successful over the past decade (Collingwood, Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn) have had excellent administration and stability. Brisbane haven't. Carlton haven't. West Coast had the drug scandals. Sure, it helps if you've got the players and the coach to go with it, but this is all based on stability. Geelong should continue to do well, until the other clubs catch up with them and overtake.
Me Too
Guest
End of an era, but to their credit they refused to go out with a whimper. With that spirit you cant see them falling too far from contention and for too long, but as far as this team goes, their window is closed.
Me Too
Guest
End of an era, but to their credit they refused to go out with a whimper. With that spirit you cant see them falling too far from contention and for too long, but as far as this team goes, their window is closed.
Winston
Guest
Bullocks, and we have all seen enough of this club to know that they aren't going away any time soon. What are they missing anyway? Based on most opinions I've heard recently, they're lacking another key forward to play alongside Hawkins. Walker looks good, but isn't quite there yet. Goldstein slaughtered them in the ruck, but they do have McIntosh to come back, and every other ruckman would have matured another year. Plenty of development has gone into the young running players and they can only get better. So all they need is another tall forward, which they already are actively doing something about in Frawley. Of course Freo has come from the side as well, but if Geelong can get Frawley then that's all their problems solved. They could play Frawley in defence to free up Harry Taylor, or they can make Josh Walker, Taylor and Frawley to rotate between attack and defence and create more uncertainty. There's not too many holes in that line up if you ask me.
asd
Guest
The backline is ageing . Not enough fire power up forward look at the % . they could put the blitz up forward find another ruckmen . lonegan mackie and enright are older . who will help taylor when there gone only rivers . the backline has been superb . nexy year is they can push again . but after that they will fall out of the 8 . looks like frawley gone to freo .but they might be lucky.
Mark
Guest
They have started to re-build and did it far more intelligently than Collingwood (let far too many experienced players go at once). The big question is, how good are the 2nd tier players. Geelong supporters would hope that they are very good. Not sure if this is the case. Geelong has Selwood and Hawkins. Brisbane still had Brown, Black and a dozen of their other stars and still collapsed. For cats to maintain the same quality of team, you would need the following to occur: Caddy is as good as Kelly Duncan is as good as Ablett Christensen is as good as Bartell Motlop is as good as Stevie J Vardy is as good as Chappy etc etc. Sorry, cant see this being the case.
Evan
Roar Rookie
The Cats are rebuilding whist still winning and have a strange list dynamic at the moment, they have 29 players on the list 23 years old and under, only Gold Coast and GWS have more than that, they currently only have 8 players between 24-29 years old but they have 9 players who are 30+. Futher breakdown is: 18-20yo: 9 players 21-23yo: 20 players 24-26yo: 7 players 27-29yo: 1 player 30+: 9 players So they have the third most players 23 and under, equal least (with GWS) players 24-29 and highest number of players 30+ in the league. So in the next 3 years the Cats will lose the likes Enright, Bartel, Kelly, Mackie, Lonergan, Johnson, Stokes. Selwood, Hawkins, Taylor, Varcoe will enter the senior part of the career, nearing 30yo. Young blokes like Caddy, Duncan, Christensen, Motlop, Vardy, Menzel (hopefully), Murdoch, Guthrie, Horlin-Smith will be developing into better senior players. I think the Cats future is OK Dan.
Brian
Guest
They will continue to make the 8 with the State Govt to be pledging more taxpayer millions to Kardinia Park. The people of Geelong clearly preferring that to money for them to have jobs after Alcoa and Ford. The advantage of home crowd support and training where you play is huge and so they will make the 8. However we saw in the finals that without Steve Johnson they weren't up to it. They talk a lot about their youth but in the 1st final they had 9 guys from the 2007 flag. Their youth and home ground will keep them mid range but I can't see a flag anytime soon. One win from their last 6 finals tells you they are not close ATM when the whips are cracking so to speak. Brisbane success was in a different era without free agency and compromised drafts. Geelong, Hawthorm, Sydney & Collingwood have all stayed at the top longer this time then any club in the Brisane era.
Mark Soong
Guest
The Cats situation is much better than Brisbane era. The core now will be built around selwood,Hawkins,with Taylor. So in the next two-three years, I can see the likes of caddy,Guthrie,motlop,Taylor hunt,billy smedts,murdoch,Lincoln McCarthy,Jackson thurlow step up and fill the void.They would have the next 3 months to do some soul searching and have a good pre-season before next season starts.Off the field, some recruitment will help to beef up its ruck stock and a 2nd key forward.They are still able to keep in touch with the 8th for the next 2 years,they would be ready to challenge again in 2017-18,similar to Sydney's after the 2005-2006 until 2012,while keeping in touch with the top 8.
Axle an the guru
Guest
You carnt compair Brisbane to Geelong. Brisbanes premierships were given to a club by the AFL with the pick of The Fitzroy carcuss and every other concession in the book at the time. Brisbane have never had a strong administration,so they never had a clue what to do with that side as club greats retired,not to mention the rubbish they have to go through for being an NRL state. Geelong are surrounded by football brains that will have and have shown they know what to do at this point in time. Geelong will still be there abouts next year so will Freo,but sides do slip as others grow,its the progression of the game. It will be tighter next year at the top as Nth,Port and Gold Coast all will be aiming for top 4 honors with Freo,Geelong,Hawthorn and Sydney.
General Waste
Guest
I think that the cats have essentially already started the rebuild. To achieve top four status simultaneously demonstrates how great a club they are.
Blah blah
Guest
Ash your just a tosser, that's all I have to say!!!
Mark
Guest
Like any great team, it is very hard to let go of the old players that have been champs. They have 8 players over 30yo. Even after letting Pod and Chappy go. Many sides take many, many years to recover from this, e.g. Brisbane. Players that dont get close tags because there are so many other stars (e.g. Motlop is not tagged because there is Stevie J, Bartell etc) will suddenly recieve a Crowley type each week. Will they cope? They have 2 superstars (Selwood and Hawkins). Take out the over 30s and there is not a great deal of proven ability left...