The Caulfield and Melbourne Cups are on the horizon, so now is a good time to have a closer look at the nominal favourite for that first Tuesday in November.
The Offer is his name and he has possibly disappointed a few of his supporters at his two runs back, in the Dato Chan Nim Stakes at Moonee Valley, and the Underwood Stakes on Saturday.
But anybody writing him off just yet should be taking a closer look at his racetrack career to date.
Maybe we are too used to seeing Gai Waterhouse stayers hit the ground running? This horse is a little different to the norm from that stable.
For starters he has never won a race below 2200 metres, so why should we be surprised that he has finished 1.8 lengths and 3.5 lengths away in two Spring weight-for-age races at 1600 metres and 1800 metres respectively?
Overall he is 0-3/8 below that distance and 6/11 at 2200 metres and over. Since he has been with Gai he is yet to be beaten in four races at or beyond that trip, since being gelded in his second preparation for her.
Last Autumn he was beaten 5.5 lengths and 5 lengths at his first and second up runs in a restricted race and a quality listed event (with 54 kilograms) respectively, so his preparation this spring compares very favourably.
The strongest part of his last two runs has been the last 200 metres, so it would appear he is coming along very nicely to peak just at the right time.
In the autumn he improved significantly third up to win very easily over 2400 metres on a heavy track. He jumped 400 metres in distance to win that and then won his two subsequent starts at 2600 metres in The Chairman’s, and 3200m in the Sydney Cup to finish off a stellar campaign.
There is an argument to say that his best form is on rain affected tracks that he encountered there, but that might just be another reason to respect his performances thus far this spring. He hasn’t yet hit a track anywhere near as wet in Melbourne, but you know that if he does he will relish the opportunity. He did win by 4.5 lengths over 2400 metres under the tutelage of master trainer Aidan O’Brien though, so any thoughts he is just a wet tracker would be premature.
Gai Waterhouse has already signalled her discontent at the 56.5 kilograms allocated to him in the Melbourne Cup, so it would seem unlikely she would want him to incur a further penalty for the Melbourne Cup by winning that race. Given that factor it will be interesting to see what path is taken with him.
The Cox Plate might be off the agenda unless he wins the Turnbull at 2000 metres en route, because his form simply won’t warrant a start in that race. He might go to the Turnbull and then the Mackinnon without winning a race this Spring. If he did happen to start and win the Caulfield Cup it wouldn’t be the end of the world (far from it), and it would certainly mean he is right on cue for 3200 metres.
He did carry 57.5 kilograms to easily win the Chairmans handicap over 2600 metres during the spring, and lumped 59.5 kilograms in that easy win over 2600 metres as a three-year-old in Ireland, which proves he can handle big imposts.
It’s pretty hard to find a real flaw and Gai has managed to finish first and second in the past two Melbourne Cups with the former import Fiorente. There seems no reason whatsoever that she can’t repeat the dose with this horse, who has so much more to offer this spring.
And if regular jockey Tommy Berry happens to be aboard when it happens what a fantastic story that would be!
Luke M
Guest
If you get a couple of internationals, and the support of Lloyd Williams and Chris Waller and you should already be getting each-way. haha I think you would get to around 7-12 and the way to do it is prizemoney down the field. It would be a great pipeopener for the internationals and help cover the travel costs by rewarding those who have a lead up here. I think the race it could resemble in style is the Caulfield Stakes. Not always high on numbers but the site of many great victories because it is a race for the top-shelf performers. Quality is worth watching. I love the big handicaps more than most, but we should have both and bolster our staying program by doing it.
titch
Guest
a wfa MV cup? it will become like the Geelong Cup...5 runners
Bondy
Guest
Mate he'll still struggle to get in, I note he was on the limit on the weekend in a Grp 3 race and there are no supposed european topshelf stayers for the Cup either . Good luck to them though live the dream .....
Scuba
Guest
Bondy, he's still 7.5kg below WFA, so I think he'd still be a fair way down the order of entry. Also worth noting he has to pass the first balloting condition as his only placing over further than 2300 metres was before 1 February 2013.
Bondy
Guest
Scuba That 1.5 kg pen does that now guarantee he gets a start in the Mlb Cup?, if not its quite harsh. Horses this time of year need weight just to get in ..
Scuba
Guest
When Gris Caro gets pinged 1.5kg for the Melbourne Cup based on falling in on Saturday you can understand why trainers with better horses don't want them going round in handicaps.
Bondy
Guest
Luke M Those WFA races from 16.00 -24.00 are to close to one another because most Cox Plt runners are milers in most cases trying to run 10 furlongs. I agree somewhat the MV Cup should be WFA because there are too many Hcp'd lead up races to the Mlb Cup where you can receive penalties, I dont think in modern times you'll see that many penalties for the Mlb Cup regardless unless they win the Clfd Cup by 4-5 lengths and I can't see that happening anytime soon. ...
Luke M
Guest
I agree with you in isolation as it is always an interesting race for both watching and punting, however I think it could become more. Also, after the failed request to make the CC penalty free last year I can't see the VRC doing it for the MVC. Going to WFA seems to me the only way to make available a penalty free staying lead up without the VRC changing their tune, and I strongly believe there should be a penalty free staying path to get to the cup. After the new track opens I would like to see Cox Plate day become a WFA showpiece day with quality WFA races at 1200, 1600, 2040 and 2400 metres.
Luke M
Guest
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
I would think they would try to utilise it to an extent Bondy. He doesn't have to get way back in the field in a mile and a half race. He came from just off the pace when winning the Manion last Autumn albeit in a small field. I think my query in the Melbourne Cup for him would be a hard track and Flemington can throw up that scenario. It will be interesting to see how he goes at that track as well, if he does go through the Turnbull and/or Mackinnon. Some horses just aren't Flemington horses, not that I foresee a problem.
Scuba
Guest
Luke, I actually quite like having the MV Cup as a set weights and penalties race. The obvious thing to do if they wanted Melbourne Cup contenders to race in the MV Cup rather than going round for practice in the Cox Plate (e.g. most of Lloyd's horses) is to make the MV Cup penalty-free. While races like the Naturalism, the JRA Cup, the Bart Cummings and the Herbert Power are typically contested by B Graders (as you say), the reason for this is because trainers of horses who are already going to make the field don't want to win handicap races and risk a penalty for the Cups - if those trainers could run their horses in some of those races without risking a penalty then the quality of the races would improve.
Luke M
Guest
What I have taken from The Offer is that he certainly is not Fiorente and to give him the same preparation would be a mistake. He simply lacks the brilliance to justify a Cox Plate start. He appears to be a horse that thrives on distance racing, and in order to guarantee he keeps his confidence he needs to run at a trip.We continuously try to turn European stayers into 2000m WFA stars, this horse simply isn't that. I would be going through the Moonee Valley Cup. 2500m ten days before going to 3200m fits his pattern from the autumn where he went from the 2600m of the Chairmans' 7 days into the 3200m of the Sydney Cup. A genuine chance in a very open renewal, he will be strong late and that gives him a chance. By the way, why is there NOT ONE weight for age race longer than the Cox Plate before the Melbourne Cup? Since the very top horses are dodging the Caulfield Cup due to penalties; why does the progression of WFA races through the Spring stop at 2000m? The only 2400m WFA race in the entire carnival is the Zipping Classic as everything winds down at Sandown. The Queen Elizabeth is also after the Cup. The obvious race to change to WFA is the Moonee Valley Cup. At this time there is a multitude of staying races for the B graders but few for the top-liners. Imagine on the new track the support race to the Cox Plate being a WFA race between the best local stayers and the cream of the internationals. All this 10 days out from the Melbourne Cup. I remember the appeal the race had the year Americain ran, we should encourage the internationals to have a lead up run so that the industry can maximise the interest they generate amongst the public. What do other roarers think of a WFA Moonee Valley Cup?
Bondy
Guest
BPhil If The Offer draws inside 8 in the Clfd Cup do you think he'll go back and take up his normal backmarker position ? ...
kv joef
Roar Guru
Thorough and accurate analysis BP. Like Scuba and a few other racing-roarers i liked v.much the way he finished off Sat. race. The figures for his last 600 are pretty good for the type of horse you have described. Noticed the Nth. Hemisphere Bovver Boys are starting show up.
Bondy
Guest
What Waterhouse may do is run him in the Clfd Cup then back him up a week later for the Cox Plt and then straight into the Mlb Cup. All of these races currently are very open betting wise and theres no real favourite for anything every trainer should be grateful of a win no one horse stands out, makes for very open and even racing ...