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September 2014 and FIFA’s World Ranking release sees Australia drop to 84 in the world and become the AFC’s ninth best nation. What are these rankings and can they improve after Australia’s two matches in October?
The FIFA World Rankings are not just there for bragging rights, having been used in the past to seed teams for tournaments and World Cup draws.
» Where does your country stand? View the latest FIFA rankings
Created in 1992 it has come under criticism over the years and has undergone a number of revisions, the latest of which was post 2006 World Cup.
The current system averages the points for each match over the past four years and takes into account the type of match played (friendlies vs qualifiers vs tournaments), the ranking of an opponent, the strength of the confederation as well as the result. The four-year weighted assessment period is applied to older points to reduce their significance and reflect the current form of a national team.
Similar to a league system, a win has a value of three; a draw one, a loss zero, while a penalty shootout winner gets two points, the loser one.
The number of goals scored (or let in) no longer count. Losing by loads of goals means zero points.
It is actually an easy formula to calculate for a match but when historical victories lose their shine coupled with facing weaker opponents, missing qualifiers and important tournaments, it is easy to see how even great teams fall down in rankings (see Brazil prior to 2013 Confederations Cup win). It is also why winning friendly matches can sometimes see a team drop in rankings.
October sees Australia take on the United Arab Emirates (UAE, ranked 73 and 6th in AFC) and Qatar (96 and 11th in AFC). You can use FIFA’s Ranking Prognosis tool to see what a win against UAE (323.85 points) and Qatar (265.20 points) will do to our ranking points (Australia moves from 390 to 403 points). A draw or a loss (with a win in the other match) sees our points drop on average by 9 points. Lose both and we drop 41 points.
Saudi Arabia immediately above us (402 points) play Uruguay (535.575 for a win) and Lebanon (201.45). Such a good result for the Saudi’s gives them a ranking points score of…402 (and no change).
Distilling down the above in terms of FIFA rankings means the following: Winning is important, winning against stronger opposition helps, winning in major tournaments is like hitting the jackpot.
Of course Australia isn’t focussing on improving rankings but on improving the way we play. We are on a journey the start of which is a period of transition for the national team with a long view to making the 2018 World Cup.
Ange Postecoglou’s immediate concern over the next four months is preparing for a home Asian Cup in January 2015. To top our group of Oman, Kuwait and South Korea means defeating UAE, Qatar and Japan (in November). Beating the likes of Iran, Uzbekistan, Japan currently above us and winning the Asian Cup will open up the 2017 Confederations Cup, and valuable experience against high quality opposition.
Postecoglou has already fostered a belief in the players’ abilities. He is now working to identify players in the short term to be on call for the Asian Cup and World Cup Qualifiers later in 2015.
By 2017 Postecoglou will have had to turn the team around, winning World Cup Qualifying matches, and be in the box seat to qualify for Russia 2018. The belated transition of 2013-2015 will be a memory. New players will come into a squad firm in belief with veterans ready to share a winning mentality. A style of play firmly entrenched.
The next four years are an important period for the national team and Postecoglou. Winning, and winning with style, will become paramount to labelling that period a success.
The FIFA World Rankings for Australia will only reflect how many games we win, not the hard journey we will have travelled to achieve success.
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