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A close friend of mine is a self-proclaimed/self-loathing, punting prodigy/problem gambler, who lives by one gospel rule when it comes to betting on the A-League: stay away from the top goalscorer market.
Bow to temptation, he says, and you’ll be taken on a season-long sally that’s earmarked by Jose Mourinho-esque confidence at the beginning and Arsene Wenger-like deflation at the end.
It’s a simple enough rule (which he routinely breaks without fail), but it’s one that seems all the more sensible given the history of past seasons and the early forecasts of the year ahead.
Version 10 of the A-League is shaping up to be one of the most leveled seasons yet, and that unpredictably is mirrored in the golden boot sweepstakes.
The A-League is unique in the sense that the golden boot is by no means a pre-cursor to team silverware.
In fact, in the A-League’s nine-season history, only one golden boot recipient has led his team to the Premiers plate – that being Archie Thompson with his 15-goal haul in 2006/07.
And if Adam Taggart’s accolade-snaring 16 goals last year is anything to go by (anyone who says they predicted that is a liar), flipping a coin for this season may be considered a calculated option.
Though ask Besart Berisha, and I’m sure the Albanian will tell you keep that coin in your pocket. As expected, Berisha is considered by the bookies to be a short favourite for the gong.
The now-Melbourne Victory forward appears to have seamlessly adapted to his new outfit. With his rabid dog approach, Berisha will be looking to feast on half-chances and hesitations, and will be confident of adding to his golden boot from the 2011/12 season.
There’s no denying that Brisbane Roar has been cut down a size with Berisha’s departure, but they’ll be praying fellow countrymen Mensur Kurtishi can fill the void. There’s still a great sense of the unknown when it comes to the 28-year-old, but Roar boss Mike Mulvey has been quick to praise his speed of mind and movement.
Kurtishi’s CV boasts a respectable goal-to-games ratio, albeit in leagues such as Macedonia, Kazakhstan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Austria. Yet a five-goal haul against FFA Cup round of 16-ers Olympic FC in a preseason fixture will have the Roar faithful quietly hoping that they’ve unearthed another gem.
He’ll be inheriting not only Berisha’s number seven, but also arguably the most fruitful supporting midfield crew in the league. If the Roar’s perpetual chance-creating production line continues, Kurtishi could well surprise more than a few.
Kurtishi might be an international man of mystery, but Sydney FC marquee Marc Janko won’t be able to enjoy the same anonymity. Opposition centre backs will be well informed of the Austrian captain, with his 1.96-metre frame sure to cause a host of gangly problems.
Sky Blue personnel have touted Janko as a barefaced goalscoring target-man. It’s the sort of profile that, while well suited to success in the A-League, could become his downfall should he struggle to find rhythm and service.
Sydney FC also have the luxury of calling upon the only man to have won the golden boot more than once – Shane Smeltz. Few eyebrows will be raised if the New Zealander manages to forge a clinical partnership with Janko.
The race for the golden boot has a distinctive foreign taste this season and Perth Glory’s Andy Keogh is likely to be one of those featuring at the pointy end. The Republic of Ireland striker has been largely unassuming since his arrival to the country, but has turned in a series of consistent pre-season performances to suggest that he’s primed for goals.
Having last played in the Championship in England, Keogh will appreciate the A-League’s less-taxing fixture list – though at only 28 years of age, fatigue shouldn’t be an issue. He’ll enjoy being the focal point of an experienced Glory outfit, who must be said have recruited well in the off-season.
Listed as the bookies shortest Australian option for the golden boot is Western Sydney’s Tomi Juric. Juric, who I recently championed as the Socceroos’ potential long-term number nine, will shoulder much of the goalscoring responsibility for the Wanderers.
Consistency, and an increasingly worrying injury streak, are set to be Juric’s biggest obstacles to the crown – he’s already set to miss the opening fixtures of the season. Yet the burly boy from the West, who seems to have also taken over Shinji Ono’s role as penalty taker, has shown enough quality to suggest that he’s a frontrunner for the prize.
Elsewhere, Melbourne City’s other David, David Williams, will be buoyed by his 12-goal showing last season, while usual suspects Jeremy Brockie and Archie Thompson will be aiming to keep their reputations afloat. In Mitchell Duke and Matt Simon, the Mariners have one of Australia’s most promising young talents along with a man who has twice come second in the golden boot race.
Adelaide’s Bruce Djite will be expecting to be the main benefactor of Josep Gombau’s free-flowing attacking philosophy, and new Jets signing Edson Montano will be keen to reward Phil Stubbins’ leap of faith.
Of course, there’s every chance that the 2014/15 golden boot winner will be someone other than aforementioned candidates. I’m more than ready to be surprised.
And speaking of surprises, will this finally be the season that someone breaks the 20-goal barrier? It’s nearly been breached twice, with Smeltz in 2009/10 and Berisha in 2011/12 both netting 19 times.
In a 27-game season, it’s in no way an unachievable target. But hey, if David Villa bangs in a couple of goals a game, he could have the boot wrapped up by Christmas.
At $21, he’s worth a punt…
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