Hayne's NFL dream doomed to fail

You can’t criticise Jarryd Hayne for wanting to follow his dream of playing in the NFL.

It’s a bold move, uninfluenced by greed and instead motivated by the pursuit of a challenge for someone who has achieved almost everything in rugby league.

Other NRL stars have cited the same need to test themselves and step out of their comfort zone as a reason for switching codes, but none have embarked on a pursuit like this.

Hayne’s dream is admirable, his proposed endeavour courageous. But there are a number of considerable obstacles that will mean he never plays a down in the NFL.

Firstly, unlike the NRL – which has a shallow talent pool – the NFL has a surplus of players.

The challenge Hayne has set himself is the same set by 100,000 high school seniors who play football in the US every year. Of that number, only 215 – or 0.2 per cent – will ever make an NFL roster.

Even of the 9,000 players that make it to the college level, only 310 are invited to the NFL scouting combine.

Hayne will be 27 by the time the 2015 NFL season starts, meaning he will compete with hundreds of players who are six years younger and boast at least a decade more experience in the sport.

The two-time Dally M winner will be vying for a roster spot against guys who have three and four years of statistics and film under their belt at the college level.

Add to that the thousands of practice squad members and free agents who desperately clamber for a roster spot each year and there is reason to be cagey about Hayne’s ambition.

The majority of skill position players will be just as athletic as Hayne and considerably more talented, from an NFL standpoint.

Hayne says returning kicks or punts is his best chance to make a name for himself. He argues it’s just like in the NRL, they kick it down, he catches it and tries to gain as many yards as he can.

However, the return man position has been significantly undervalued over the last few years. In 2011, the NFL modified the kick-off and moved the ball to the 35-yard line, resulting in far more touchbacks and far fewer return touchdowns.

This year, through six games, there have only been two kick return touchdowns. The days of Devin Hester, Josh Cribbs, Leon Washington and Brad Smith making a living almost exclusively as return men is long gone.

These days return men are interchangeable. Few, if any, are good enough to do it exclusively. And NFL teams are trending more towards putting safer players, someone who knows when to bring the ball out or take a knee, in those positions.

So if Hayne wants to be a return specialist, he will likely have to play another position as well. There is no room on an NFL roster for a guy who is only going to offer you a fair catch once a quarter.

And that’s where the real problem arises; Hayne is starting from scratch. Throughout his 2008 book, Outliers: The Story of Success, Malcolm Gladwell repeatedly refers to the “10,000 Hour Rule”, claiming the key to success in any field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours.

Hayne’s NFL practice currently stands at only a handful of hours, not including time spent on the PlayStation.

It takes years to learn how to play cornerback, wide receiver or running back at NFL level. And the NFL is a notoriously fickle business, the average player only lasts three years in the league, with many playing only a handful of games after years of hard work.

An NFL team is unlikely to invest the time and money it will take to make Hayne a pro. What’s the pay-off? He is likely to play a few games on special teams and do the same job a player drafted from college can do from day one. It doesn’t make sense.

But Hayne is special, one of the greatest Australian athletes of the modern era. Athleticism or not, playing in the NFL takes something else. Intuition, perhaps – an ability to understand the play, read defences, set up blocks and know where your opponent is likely to be before he does because you’ve seen that play a hundred times.

It’s a lot to learn, a hell of a lot. We wouldn’t expect an NFL player to come to Australia and master our code right away, and the NRL is substantially less complicated than American Football. Yes, Hayne is a phenomenal athlete, but in Australia we are in a bit of a bubble when it comes to our sporting stars.

We like to think our NRL players are among the world’s best athletes and can match it with anyone the US can offer. The truth is that the NFL and NBA turn away more physical specimens than they let in.

Take Jeff Demps, arguably one of the greatest athletes to ever try his hand at the NFL. Demps is a world class sprinter. He runs 9.96 in the 100 metres and is an Olympic silver medallist. He also played two years of high school football and four years of college football for Florida.

Do you think Jeff Demps can make an NFL roster? Nope. He is currently on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice squad. That seems to be the best hope for Hayne and it comes with a significant pay cut compared to what he could be earning in Australia.

But money is not the main issue; Hayne obviously has plenty of that. His focus is on changing his body type to suit the NFL style of play, focusing on speed and power and cutting out the cardio.

Then it will be onto the playbook, learning to read defensive schemes, understanding the jargon of the game and audibles at the line of scrimmage. How to run routes, take hand-offs, anticipate snap counts and what routes a receiver might run on third-down.

That’s not to mention the multitude of rules, flags and penalties. It will be a daunting process for Hayne. Those speculating about what team he will sign for, what position he will play and how much money he will make are getting way ahead of themselves.

He will earn nothing and play nowhere until he can prove to a franchise that he is worth the risk. All Hayne has on his side at present is a general understanding of the game, some good physical traits and a willingness to learn.

But the challenge Hayne has set himself does serve one purpose; it could well show the divide in talent and athleticism between the NRL and NFL and settle years of disagreements between fans of both codes.

Because, let’s face it, if Hayne can’t make it, no one can.