The 2014 Cox Plate (Group 1, weight-for-age, 2040m) is one of Australia’s greatest races and the latest instalment is set to run at 5:40pm. Join The Roar for live coverage, tips and post-race analysis.
The rail has been shifted to the three metre position and with fifteen races run in the twenty-four hours prior to this race, expect the track to be playing fairly.
Speed comes from the obvious in of the Tasmanian champ, The Cleaner. He should find the front with relative ease, providing one of the three-year-olds doesn’t pull a ‘So You Think’. I would expect Side Glance to settle handy along with Almalad, but The Cleaner is sure to drag them out of their comfort zone at the 800m when Steven Arnold clicks him up.
History says the Caulfield Stakes is the best lead up, which was taken out by Fawkner this year. He was ridden more prominently than usual, but was still tough enough to win. He should improve further from that run, has drawn beautifully and is a terrific chance to break Lloyd’s Cox Plate duck.
Criterion produced his best performance this preparation when running second behind Fawkner. He will be stalking Fawkner in the run and doesn’t have a decent turn of foot. Side Glance battled on well when leading and forget his run last year when he missed the kick and never settled.
Of the others, Sacred Falls sat last at Caulfield and ran on well against the pattern. If he reproduces his Queen Elizabeth run (tough second off a heavy track Doncaster win the week prior), he’s the one to beat. Happy Trails and Foreteller were only fair, but filled the placings behind Shamus Award last year and cannot be dismissed.
Royal Descent has been super consistent this preparation. Four seconds from four starts suggests she is a non-winner, but she has been very brave and showers during the day will really boost her chances.
The other mare is Silent Achiever, who just hasn’t produced her best form in Melbourne for a few years. Nash Rawiller jumping on is a positive and her Queen Elizabeth run was admirable. Adelaide brings an international flavour to the race (the irony!) and Aiden O’Brien is an elite trainer. The weight and barrier don’t help, but still must be considered.
There is no standout among the three-year-olds with Almalad folding up quickly in the Guineas and Wandjina never threatening the winners all preparation. Sweynesse is untapped, but may be a preparation away.
Then there’s the story of the carnival. The Cleaner was beaten in a Winter Championships final and now lines up in a Cox Plate. You just have to admire the ticker of the seven-year-old, who is flying. He makes his own luck and runs time. If he corners in front, expect Moonee Valley to explode like never before.
The Cleaner really makes this an intriguing race. If he leads unchallenged, you don’t want to be the one dragging the field up to him, but you also don’t want to settle too far back. That will leave the toughest horses left to fight it out, so I’m sticking with the old boys and cheering like mad for the Longford Lion.
1. Side Glance
2. Fawkner
3. Sacred Falls
4. Criterion
Scuba
Guest
Matt, Almalad finished last. Guest of Honour failed to finish
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/08/29/six-spring-racing-predictions/ It was vague but I did say a horse named after a State or Country would win one of the big three races, could almost count Winona Costin as having a break out spring as well... ;)
Matt W
Guest
Guys can anyone help for our sweepstakes in the Cox Plate - I need to know which horse finished last. I think Guest of Honour did not complete the course? Thx
Michael Steel
Roar Pro
Keeping with the tradition of the modern COX P:ATE everybody got it wrong.
Sam James
Roar Guru
That's a rap from Moonee Valley. Thanks for your company over the past two days. Now we count down to my favourite week of the year at Flemington. Keep an eye on The Roar all week as we dissect all the Group 1s and countdown to the Melbourne Cup!
Sam James
Roar Guru
NO PROTEST! Correct weight!
Sam James
Roar Guru
Moonee Valley has produced two thrilling Group 1 finishes in the past 24 hours. Two world class winners!
Sam James
Roar Guru
Ryan Moore praises the horse. The world is at his feet now - remember he is still a three-year-old.
Sam James
Roar Guru
The Japanese take the Caulfield Cup, the Irish (South Australians can claim it too I guess) take the Cox Plate - who wants the Melbourne Cup?
Sam James
Roar Guru
That was something special.
Sam James
Roar Guru
Behind the placings, Happy Trails ran really well after missing the start. The Cleaner just did too much work early.
AR
Guest
Wow. Unbelievable win by Adelaide. Unbelievable.
Sam James
Roar Guru
WOW - the winner sat a long way back and made a swooping run around them. This horse is something special!
Sam James
Roar Guru
1ST - ADELAIDE 2ND - FAWKNER 3RD - SILENT ACHIEVER 4TH - SIDE GLANCE
Sam James
Roar Guru
Huge win. Ryan Moore take a bow!
Sam James
Roar Guru
Around the bend, The Cleaner leads from Fawkner. Here comes Adelaide and Silent Achiever, Wandjina kicking back but Adelaide in front and ADELAIDE!
Sam James
Roar Guru
Down the back and The Cleaner leads. Fawkner is a beautiful spot midfield. Criterion and Sacred Falls are a long way back!
Sam James
Roar Guru
RACING! The Cleaner is the best one out along with Wandjina. Side Glance is booting up as well with Almalad. Around the first bend and The Cleaner is four deep! Pace is on!
Sam James
Roar Guru
Last few coming in and we will be all set and ready to go in the big one!
Sam James
Roar Guru
Adelaide into $8.00. Ryan Moore cannot afford to get too far back from the 13. Does he go forward?