The 2014-15 NBA season tips off this week, after an eventful and action-packed off-season that saw so many stories and headlines created that it felt like the NBA never really stopped.
The world’s best player changed addresses – with LeBron James returning to his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers – in a move that had massive implications around the league.
Meanwhile, the defending champions, San Antonio, brought the entire band back together for the one thing missing from the Spurs dynasty: back-to-back titles.
On the eve of another exciting NBA season, it’s time to put my neck on the chopping block and predict who I think will be this season’s major award winners.
Most Valuable Player
Kevin Durant is the reigning MVP, but is set to miss the opening six to eight weeks of the season after fracturing a bone in his foot. Though he is expected to make a full recovery, the injury has all but ruled him out of contention for the 2014-15 MVP award, due to the fact he’s likely to miss approximately 20 games.
A quick look at the list of recent previous winners indicates that you essentially need to play the entire season – or close to – in order to be nominated the MVP.
Since the 1998/99 season, the most games an MVP has missed during the season is eleven, by Allen Iverson in 2000-01. Yet the average amount of games missed by the MVP across the last 27 seasons is just 2.6, meaning we can probably put a cross through KD’s name for this season’s highest individual accolade.
This should ensure that a familiar name takes home the Maurice Podoloff trophy. Namely, four-time winner, LeBron James. This award has been a two-horse race for a few seasons now, and with Durant essentially scratched, LeBron should have little competition.
Steph Curry is below average on defence, Anthony Davis’ team won’t win enough games, Blake Griffin isn’t really in LeBron’s class when it comes to the impact he has on a game, and I can’t really see anyone else close to the equation.
Yet don’t for a second think that LeBron winning would be some type of default victory. He’s the best player in the league, dominates games in a myriad of ways, and it would be the fifth time in seven years that his named has been etched into the trophy.
Most Improved Player
Easily the hardest award to pick, because it’s difficult to tell which player is going to suddenly have a break-out year, or which coach is unexpectedly going to give a promising player more minutes to shine.
However, considering the work he’s put into his once horrible jumpshot, I’m thinking Michael Kidd-Gilchrist might surprise a few people offensively this season. He’s always been a beast on defence, but offence is what most people notice, so if he’s improved there he’ll get plenty of votes.
To be honest, I nominate MKG with about as much confidence as I have in him hitting 10 three-pointers in a game, for I have no idea which player will be the most improved, and have never predicted this award correctly.
Defensive Player of the Year
If Australia’s own Andrew Bogut can stay injury-free, I think he could be a big chance of taking home this award. Unfortunately, given his medical history, that’s a pretty big if, so I’ll look elsewhere for a banker selection.
With the increased depth the Chicago Bulls have attained this year, along with the complete return to health – hopefully – of Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah will be freed up even more to concentrate on being a defensive menace. Combined with coach Tom Thibodeau’s defensive genius, I think that may see Noah crowned the NBA’s best defensive player for the second year in a row.
I also think Roy Hibbert’s importance on D will be magnified with the loss of Lance Stephenson and Paul George from the Indiana Pacers’ perimeter, so look out for the big fella as well.
Sixth Man of the Year
The judges seem to love offence when it comes to nominating their best bench player of the year. Rarely is the Sixth Man of the Year award given to a defensive specialist, bur rather, a player that enters the game and guns away immediately.
With that in mind, Jamal Crawford is likely to poll strongly again, Vince Carter will get a lot of open looks playing with twin towers Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, while Manu Ginobli is a perennial threat to take home this particular accolade.
Yet, I’m predicting the trend will be bucked this season, and Chicago’s Taj Gibson will be named the Sixth Man of the Year.
The athletic Gibson was the runner-up last season, and looks to have added to his offensive arsenal significantly, based on some highlights I’ve seen of him in the preseason. His footwork looks remarkably better, and he appears to have added some deft moves on the low block.
Combined with his already impressive work on the boards and on defence, I believe the Bulls reserve is the favourite in win this category.
Coach of the Year
Many are predicting disaster for the Heat this season, following the loss of superstar LeBron James back to Cleveland, but I think Miami will shock a few people.
They’ve had a solid off-season, bringing in Luol Deng and Josh McRoberts, along with drafting Shabazz Napier. Chris Bosh will return to being a number one option on offence, and Dwayne Wade will be motivated to prove to people that he’s still got a lot left in the tank. They’ve still got quite a bit of talent.
Yet above all, I think Miami will remain extremely competitive this season because their coach is great.
Erik Spoelstra is a wonderful tactician, at both ends of the floor. Though replacing LeBron’s productivity is impossible, I have no doubt that ‘Coach Spo’ will have devised some revised game plans that best utilise his new roster, and will keep his team in the hunt in the Eastern Conference.
Always a hotly contested award, I think Miami being a surprise packet will see Spoelstra rewarded with the kudos of being name Coach of the Year. And it will be long overdue.
Rookie of the Year
It’s Jabari Parker’s to lose.
He’s the most NBA-ready of any of the rookies, both in maturity, body-shape and overall game. Combine that with the fact he going to receive a ton of minutes and ton of shots for the putrid Milwaukee Bucks, and it’s hard to see anyone else challenging him, as stats have always trumped wins when judging this award.
Whether he’s the best player to come out of this draft in the long-term is a different question, but he’ll definitely be the best first-year player this season.
Keep an eye on Nerlens Noel though. It may technically be his second season after missing all of last year through injury, but he looked great in summer league and may surprise a few people who have forgotten he even exists. His absence last season aside, that also tends to happen when you play for Philly…
Executive of the Year
This award normally goes to the General Manger at the franchise that had the best off-season. The wheeler and dealer who made shrewd trades, selected astutely in the draft, and signed quality free agents.
Though the Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets, Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat and a number of other teams all had solid summers, the Cleveland Cavaliers won the lottery. No, I don’t mean the draft lottery, even though they won that as well. I mean the NBA lottery: signing LeBron James.
Though it’s debatable how much Cavs GM David Griffin really had to do with James coming back to Cleveland, the fact is the Cavs landed the best player in the NBA in the off-season. Throw in the trade for fellow star Kevin Love, and the acquisition of a number of valuable veterans like Mike Miller and Shawn Marion, and it’s hard to see this award going anywhere but Griffin’s coffee table.
rouleur
Guest
Yes!
mushi
Guest
Here are the guys I can think of where he would work Toronto, Charlotte, Phoenix but I think you'd be able to get some irrational confidence offer out of Minny or Sac town. The New York teams might want him but what would they give you?
Distant Knight
Guest
Simmons loved him initially, so he's actually done a full 360 now. Expect him to be on and off that bandwagon all season.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Interesting options , Astro. For me: I don't think that David West moves the dial enough for the Knicks. By getting him onboard, they don't suddenly move into the top 6 in the East. I also think Hardaway will do very well in the triangle (and Hill not so much) so the Knicks will be loathe to lose him. I think Indy would make that trade in a heartbeat though. As for the Thunder, they would have no centres if they traded both Adams and Perkins, and Ibaka is cemented at the 4, so West would be somewhat redundant. And for the Pacers, I know they should throw away the season, but there are easier ways to do it than having 3 centres on your roster! Houston would love West to solve their 4 problem, along with giving some much-needed lockerroom leadership, but I have no idea what they could offer Indy back in return.
astro
Guest
Yep, they have to move West. And ideally dump Hill's $8mil while they're at it. Even if they just took back an expiring contract like Amare or Perkins to free up cash to make a big move next year, it would be worthwhile. Would the Knicks bite on Amare/Hardaway for West/Hill? Or would OKC do West/Hill for Adams/Perkins? Each of those trades give you a solid roster player, and free up stacks of cap room if you're Indy.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
No, I meant they definitely need to upgrade at the PG/SG. And you're right about West, they'll need to replace that spot soon anyway. What team could use West now? He'd be handy on a contender.
mushi
Guest
Well you would trade west for a miid round pick or a raw player ro two so you would be getting something. Also the dude is 34 so the years you'll need to replace (lining up with PGs prime) are his late 30s. Not sure how much the team is going to expect to get out of west at 35 and beyond when he's "average" in all the skills that age well (size, passing and shooting) for his position. On your last sentence are you saying they won't need a PG or SG? If that is the case I'm not sure about that. George is a good creator but he doesn't have the handle to carry the play making load like a James or Wade. I think his off ball stuff, finishing cuts and shooting, would be more valuable with a point guard that can break defences, which Hill struggles with. The Pacers offence has been pretty poor despite having a quality scorer like George, because there isn't anyone on the team that can reliably bend the defence and force decisions by George's man. I think Hill is a better sixth man type than lead guard. As for the 2. They are playing Rodney Stuckey there. General rule of thumb that if the Piston's back court doesn't need you then you are not an upgrade
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Yeah, I'd definitely throw this season out and try to make the most of a bad situation if I was Indy. Only slight hiccup in that plan (I guess?) is that you would need to replace West's PF spot in a year's time? And once Paul George is back, they may need a PG and/or SG anyway?
mushi
Guest
I'm staggered David West is still on the Pacers. I would have thought you go full sixers for a year, get a top three pick in what looks like a pretty solid draft and either take the upside guy or flip him into a real PG plus a rotation wing or big
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I've got a Bulls vs Clippers finals, with Chicago winning . . . Or you could just do the smart thing, and pick Spurs over Cavs in the finals!
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Stephen A Smith and Skip Bayless annoy the bejaysus out of me. What about Bill Simmons down on Dante in his pre season preview but now down a complete 180 after watching him in pre season. He loves him now. Ryano who are picking to win it all ?
Shankz
Guest
Hibbert is a great defender, don't get me wrong but when teams have centers that can shoot like Bosh, Marc, Duncan, Horford, Love and Ibaka then that's where he struggles. Indiana will still be a good defensive team but I don't see Hibbert challenging for Defensive player of the year. I feel Ibaka is going to get it or LeBron just on name or even Duncan. The latter two should have won a while ago, so I see it as a lifetime thing rather than earning it this season. Also another factor is wins. Your team wins, you'll get votes. Look at the Bulls, Grizzlies and Magic when the most recent DPOTY played for them. Like MVP, MIP and 6th man, wins matter a lot because voting which I might add isn't a good thing but its how to works. So good players genuinely missed out if in terrible teams. Indiana I don't see in the playoffs because they don't have anyone who can score. David West is going down and is injured, Hill never showed he can score, Hibbert offensively hasn't shown much, Scola is a shadow of what he was and they will have to rely on Stuckey to score. If the Pacers cant get into the playoffs or a .500+ record, it rules out Hibbert. Also it didn't help that Hibbert absolutely collapsed after the All Star Break. He is a better player than that but I just don't see him pushing for DPOTY due to the above factors.
Ryan OConnell
Guest
I don't want to jinx your team, but I think the Bulls - if they can stay healthy - will be in the NBA Finals this season. They're well coached, play great D, have added some scoring and depth to their squad, and always play hard. This could be their year.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Hibbert "just protects the ring"?! I think you might be selling one of the most sought after commodities in the NBA a little short! Most coaches would kill to have Hibbert's ring protection! Check out the Pacers defensive statistics last year - a lot of that is due to Hibbert. Look at opponents field goal percentage in the paint. I'll agree Roy can be one dimensional with his defensive impact at times, but when the impact is that great, it doesn't matter.
rouleur
Guest
First of...I'll just put in a disclaimer that I'm a bulls fan. I just think DRose should be part of the MVP conversation. I'll grant that LBJ is the better player but he sometimes suffers from peoples expectations of him. Rose is a question mark because of his fitness but he's looked great in the scratchies and Rose in full flight is pretty spectacular. Not sure about Gibson for 6MOY. I think Pau coming in will affect his minutes and output. He'll still be good for the bulls. Just not sure as good as last year. Lastly, not sure whether Thibs has won a coach of the year yet. If not, then I think he's due this year. If Rose stays healthy, I think the Bulls will win enough games to justify giving him the award. Exum for ROTY...jus kidding!
mushi
Guest
and Melo will always be my MVP... of the biggest waste of talent because he doesn't give enough of a damn to defend team
mushi
Guest
I wouldn't say he scored at will with 16.6 points per 36 minutes at a 55% TS percentage. I just don't see the extra stuff in his game to overcome what is typically a huge red flag on the steal percentage
Swampy
Guest
He destroyed that myth by scoring at will in the tourney. It's defence he may struggle with. But he's only 19. He definitely isn't my pick for ROY though. Parker will win it because he is really good and is on the crappiest of teams. Is a chance to average 20/10 as a rookie. Melo for MVP mushi???
mushi
Guest
Is it the same Randle - because the knock on him was that he actually struggled against long athletic guys. His steal rate was also really low (1%) which is normally a major red flag for athleticism/instincts.
Shankz
Guest
MVP - LeBron easily because it is mainly about wins as well. I don't see Warriors being top 4 in the West, so there is no reason for Curry tow in. Blake I think will be overshadowed by CP3, so he may be a dark horse but a very dark horse. MIP - I think the Greek Freek since he'll be the starting PG and is looking good on everything minus shooting. MKG's problem is shooting and it is not getting any better. I would put a little gander on DeMarre Carroll from the Hawks, had a great season last season and is looking better under coach Bud's system of spacing out and passing. He can defend, shoot 3's and drive to the rim. DPOTY - I don't see Hibbert winning at all as shown with the Hawks playoff series. The problem is that he just protects the rim and that's about it. We saw Pero Antic able to hit mid range jumpers because Hibbert didn't come and cover him. I can see Marc (Grizzlies far better on defensive when he is there), LeBron (Cavs have nothing on defense minus him and Marion) or Ibaka (Has gotten a lot better). The thing I like about Marc compared to a DeAndre and a Serge Ibaka is that Marc is like poetry, he knows how to anchor and set up the defensive. If you just watch him, it is like amazing. That presence and the read of the game that he has. 6th Man - Vince Carter depends on how the Grizzlies go, You got Isaiah Thomas from the Suns, Ben Gordon especially since the Hornets need some scoring and Taj Gibson are possible. Dieng from the T-Wolves is also a possibility ROY - Jabari, Payton and Noel are the favorites. I could see some votes for Bojan since he'll be starting for the Nets. COTY - Favorite would be Thibs or Blatt. However we could see a Dave Joerger, Steve Kerr, Rick Carlisle, Steve Clifford or a Coach Bud in discussion. I think Coach Spo is great but I don't see him winning COTY even though I expect a great season from Bosh. Executive - Cavs are the favourite but I can see a look in for Chicago with the gain of Gasol and Mirotic.