Liverpool were always going to find this season relatively hard going. That was inevitable given their near miss in winning the title, the ageing legs of Steven Gerrard and the loss of Luis Suarez.
The squad was widely considered to be sub-standard, lacking real depth and the twin challenge of the EPL and Champions League was always going to be tricky.
Liverpool last season benefited greatly from fresh players after Christmas. This season, however, looks to be heading in the wrong direction, possibly further than anyone had anticipated.
So what is the real crux of the issue?
The Suarez effect
Losing a player of such quality invariably produces a negative outcome for the team even if the money is reinvested. While you can improve your squad, unless you buy a player of equal ability you invariably weaken your first 11.
Suarez and his able sidekick Daniel Sturridge scored a fantastic 53 league goals between them last season. Remove Suarez and the injured Sturridge from the picture and it is simple to say that the answer is staring you in the face. Any team would obviously struggle losing those two.
It is however, overly simplifying things to suggest that this is the entire reason. Other players take their places and have opportunities to score goals. A good example is when Manchester United lost Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid. Ronaldo was not yet the stats phenomenon he is now but United lost a potent weapon.
The following season they scored nine more goals (scoring five less points however) as Wayne Rooney’s total dramatically improved. Alex Ferguson proved yet again that you can lose a top player yet carry on challenging at the top.
Sturridge’s injury has exacerbated the issue but it is not the sole reason for the current malaise.
Brendan Rodgers’ transfer policy
Rodgers received a huge amount of plaudits last season and looks a fine manager in the making. The Liverpool board were patient with him in his first season and were repaid with a genuine title challenge.
But one area where Rodgers faces criticism is in the transfer market.
Liverpool completely reinvested the Suarez money and in fairness to Rodgers, replacing the Uruguayan was a nigh on impossible task. Rodgers was also aware that the squad needed quality additions throughout the team in an assortment of positions. Both quality and quantity were required.
Rodgers has certainly bought quantity but whether he has brought true quality or improved Liverpool in the departments they required is up for debate.
Rodgers’ main larder to be raided belonged to Southampton where he plundered Rickie Lambert, Dejan Lovren and Adam Lallana. Taking the Lambert transfer to one side, the acquisitions of Lovren and Lallana have hardly appeared stellar.
Lallana cost about five million less than Chelsea paid for Cesc Fabregas and the transfer of Lovren looks an expensive one if held up against the bizarrely cheap sale of Daniel Agger.
Southampton were expected to flounder due to losing so many players (Callum Chambers and Luke Shaw also) but they have hardly batted an eyelid. Was it really their best players that they sold after all?
Roy Hodgson was pilloried for several of his signings and for a lack of ambition during his time at Anfield, being accused of trying to turn Liverpool into Fulham. Add in Rodgers’ expensive addition of the underwhelming Joe Allen and you could possibly argue that Rodgers is also yearning for his days at Swansea.
It is true that some players are late bloomers, but if players such as Lallana at 26 and Lovren at 25 are still playing for Southampton there is generally a reason for it. They are not of the very highest calibre or they would have been snapped up earlier.
Harsh, I hear you say, but a quick glance at Real Madrid running rings around the Liverpool midfield will tell you that the likes of Lallana and Jordan Henderson (not signed by Rodgers) are not of the highest calibre.
Madrid are a wonderful team but the likes of Chelsea would at least have competed even if they had ultimately been beaten. Liverpool have signed good players but not great ones.
The goalkeeping situation is also a curious one. Pepe Reina had not had a good season for Liverpool prior to his going to Napoli but losing him and bringing in Simon Mignolet for a net transfer loss of about seven million pounds looks slightly curious.
And so too Mario Balotelli, the return of the enfant terrible to the North West of England he so professed to loathe on departing City. The 16 million pounds forked out didn’t look a bad price. Rodgers is a good man manager and players do grow up – Nicolas Anelka and Eric Cantona – so it was definitely worth a gamble.
What does look odd however, is that Rodgers appears to have simply no idea how to integrate him in to the Liverpool system of tactics and play.
We have seen the likes of Fernando Torres and Andriy Shevchenko endure similar toils at Chelsea but they were the whims of a rich owner rather than a supposedly shrewd managerial tactician. Which brings us to our next point.
Rodgers’ tactics
Liverpool were like a juggernaut in the second half of last season, destroying teams with abandon with their rapier attacking football. They played some blistering football in a seemingly relentless march towards the title. Except they came up short.
Rodgers received huge praise for last season and was awarded the Manager of the Year award ahead of Tony Pulis (so he must have done many things right I concede). However, there was and is a suspicion that Liverpool have no Plan B and there is a reality that their defence is terrible.
Rodgers has employed Gerrard in a deep lying playmaker role, the quarterback role the in vogue name. Roy Hodgson attempted something similar at the World Cup with England and was found wanting badly as Gerrard was exposed time and time again.
Liverpool simply blew teams away with their attacking might as Arsenal found out to their terrible cost when they visited Anfield.
There was a huge waive of emotion. Here in Singapore we were treated to ‘You’ll Never Walk Alone’ in all its glory before every Liverpool home game on TV, it was Hillsborough’s 25-year anniversary and it seemed like destiny.
Stevie G’s ‘this does not f*cking slip’ speech. It had to happen.
Which all reminds me very much of Brazil’s World Cup adventure, players crying during anthems, Neymar shirts aloft and David Luiz charging around everywhere. Of course when they met a highly organised side and suddenly realised that destiny doesn’t play a part in defending and the invincibility bubble was burst, they imploded.
When Liverpool met the brick wall of Chelsea’s defence they came up horribly short and Gerrard made the horrendous slip in his holding role which defined and ultimately ruined his season. With their own air of invincibility gone, Liverpool had their own implosion blowing a three-goal lead against Palace in the last 11 minutes as panic set in and the title was gone.
So where to from here?
This article may read as unduly negative towards Liverpool and Rodgers but it is not meant in such a way. It is merely trying to balance this season versus last and where Liverpool actually sit in the grand scheme of things.
Last season was almost certainly a huge overachievement on the back of raw emotion, Luis Suarez and some undoubtedly fine football. After going so close to the title last season, missing out on the top four and not qualifying for the Champions League this time around would be a severe blow.
With Chelsea and City seemingly a level above, Arsenal seasoned in making the top four and a United team that will improve and benefit from the lack of European football, it may be a tough ask for Liverpool this time around.
It is time for Rodgers to earn his money.
Tim Holt
Roar Guru
Hi Steven As for Lambert, I loved him at Norwich, thinking he did a brilliant job. Since taking over Villa, I admit he has had so much against him with Lerner forcing him to tighten the purse strings in responses to MON's extravagances. Which would have been fine if we got UEFA football, but, he never got us there, and we are paying now, very like Leeds a while ago. We have pulled back before a disaster like Leeds, but the impact has been huge. With us having little funds to buy players, and with such a tight wage scale we cannot attract anyone. Its sad, for few realise how big a club Villa were, and how so many wanted to play for us to now when a player like Ki at Swansea did everything in his power to avoid coming to us :( As for Lambert, he has put us in real stew with his transfer policy, which had an accent on youth, with few making the grade, and then the established signings he has made have not come up trumps. The only one of note is Benteke, and injury is a reason, but the more you watch him the more you fear he is another Marlon Harewood- one season wonder. Plus, with him having target men like Benteke, he has never addressed a key need in the need for wingers , or that number 10 who can make them with a killer ball His tactics of playing on the counter or alternatively route one to Benteke is too easy to break down, and also alienates the fans for we have always demanded to see football played at Villa Park- the crowds have responded in kind He has had back luck with injuries to key men, but, luck aside, the club is on its knees and looks destined for the drop with him showing little ability to avoid it If we lose to Burnley in a few weeks, lerner has to move on him for relegation would be unthinkable on so many levels
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Cheers Tim and cheers for reading the piece. On a separate note and as a Scot, just interested to hear your take on Paul Lambert? Good manager in the making or a dud?
Tim
Guest
I must say I hate LiverWHO with a real passion, and are more concerned with my dross of a team Aston Villa somehow avoiding the drop this year than them but, back to the Scousers, i think it is the same story as when they lost Xabi Alonso nigh on a decade ago, a pivotal player they could not replace. The same now with Chompy Suarez going Plus, whereas a generation ago when Liverpool was the Club all the best players wanted to go too, they have lost a lot of their appeal, so would struggle to attract the really top class players. With them more likely to end up at the Manure clubs or Chelsea I think they will finish between 5-8 on the table at years end
Fadida
Guest
Didn't try miss out on Sanchez, just to highlight my point?
Fadida
Guest
Disagrre 100%. Liverpool bought Suarez from Ajax, a second tier league (post a bite too I recall!). He was very much a second tier player at the time, unwanted by big clubs. Liverpool are yet to sign a top tier player wanted by anyone else, Balotelli included. Show me one example. Half the side have come from Southampton and Swansea!
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
I think CL qualification is paramount for them this year if they're not to go backwards. I wrote a piece on Liverpool a season or two ago where I commented that it could be some years before they could mount a title challenge (humble pie last year obviously!) but my reasoning was this......... Chelsea have a far smaller fan base but have established themselves through CL participation, the money it brings and now commercial revenues in these times of FFP. Granted they short cut their way there. City have also short cut to the top but now also benefit from growing commercial revenues and also CL participation and that money. United with or without the Glazers simply have money coming out of their ears, enormous global brand. Arsenal likewise are very wealthy and I think I'm probably right in saying they have the largest match day revenue anywhere in Europe such is the size of their corporate entertainment. They also have many many years of CL money that has come in. Liverpool have an antiquated stadium (which they are addressing I know) which is (from a money point of view) in the wrong region geographically and until this season no CL revenues. That makes what they achieved last season even greater but is also I think realistic about what their chances are going forwards if they drop out of the CL again. It's an absolute must for them.
Vas Venkatramani
Guest
Fadida, it's a contestable point on whether Liverpool can "attract" hummels. We need to remember that the club signed luis suarez from Ajax in a far worse position to the one they find themselves in now. There is no question Liverpool can pull off a signing like hummels, but it depends on the outlook of fsg on whether they want to splash cash on a player that is currently in the peak of their powers. Steven, your point about Liverpool being a big enough brand is a fair one. At the same time, I believe it will take more than one season in the champions league for the club to further regain their old lustre.
Fadida
Guest
Defoe would join them, but Hummels is the caliber of player that Liverpool simply can't attract. Therein lies the problem
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Vas, bearing in mind the comments about a lack of ambition, how do you reckon Jermain Defoe would go down with the supporters!? Guess it depends whether he was getting goals or not, that's usually good enough for most fans..............
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Thanks Nick. I agree with you in respect to their footballing abilities at centre back entirely. Yet apparently it was so type of limitations that was his reasoning for dropping and jettisoning Agger, that one I really don't understand........
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Andrew as with everyone else, cheers for reading the piece. New players (and several of them at once) always take time to bed in. What I did find interesting was comments that Rodgers made along the lines of 'they haven't figured out what is to play for Liverpool yet' etc etc. Now I know it's a step up from Southampton for instance but surely he'd have talked to the players at length prior to signing them, judged their characters etc, can they make the step up in terms of dealing with that level of expectation etc? It's interesting hearing Roy Keane's comments in the past few weeks, where he said he fell down completely was in recruitment. If you don't buy good players in the first place you have no chance was his basic theory.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Paul cheers for the read and interesting comments. As Vas was mentioning above, what do you think the reasons are for Liverpool not attracting the top players right now? I know they've been out of the CL for a while, they're not London based etc etc but they remain a phenomenal brand and institution across Europe and the World. Is that maybe just my age (41) remembering the halcyon days and it doesn't mean so much to players in their 20s?
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Vas I agree with Fadida (happening far too much today!) again, you've made several excellent observations there. Trying to figure out where United are going to finish is like pinning the tail on the donkey right now......... Maybe we'll know more after the City game. Cheers for reading the piece.
Steven McBain
Roar Guru
Fadida again, you're making very valid points. I think for instance Alexis Sanchez would have been a wonderful buy and the type of player that gives you something different but he simply didn't want to go there. London's always a big draw for players granted but I think that Rodgers needs to work on being able to attract the big players, maybe it will come in time.
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
Another nice one steven. Imo, the main problem with Liverpool is with their centre backs. Skrtel, sakho and Lovren have all the same profile, tall, heavy and very limited technically. I watched a fair bit of Sakho and Lovren when they were at Paris and Lyon and even then they showed big gaps even for 20-22yo players. I thought they would get better with time but in all honesty I feel they have stagnated in the last couple of years. They are journeymen at best imo. Sakho in particular has to be the clumsiest/most limited technically defender I have seen in a long time. Sure he gives it all but every time he plays for his country I know am going to be nervous all match long. Glad the Qatari sold him.
Vas Venkatramani
Roar Guru
Four players needed - another goalkeeper, a defensive leader, a midfield enforcer and a striker to both back up and partner Daniel Sturridge. Goalkeeper - Guillermo Ochoa. Simon Mignolet needs better backup than simply Brad Jones. Ochoa is wasted on the bench at Malaga, and his presence may well lift Mignolet to do better than he currently is. Defender - Mats Hummels. Absolutely essential that Liverpool bring in a defensive leader. Hummels will probably be worth 30-35m from Dortmund. If not him, Liverpool could go for Benedikt Hoewedes. Midfielder - William Carvalho. Liverpool need a dominant midfield presence that can both regain possession but also is secure in protecting the back four. Gerrard is a great long passer, but fulfils neither of the other qualities. Carvalho will probably be 25m. An alternative could be Oriol Romeu, but only if Chelsea are willing to sell. Forward - Divock Origi or Jermain Defoe. If Liverpool can't get Origi early from his loan at Lille, then they must secure Defoe on a six month loan to provide a viable alternative to Daniel Sturridge, or to partner him. I hope I'm wrong, but the Balotelli experiment seems to have failed. Players to go out should include Enrique, Toure and Balotelli.
Colly
Roar Pro
Truly it is time for Rodgers to earn his money.... ...though that said, buying half a new team was always going to require a stage of adjustment as the new players adjust to Rodgers' strategy and alternatively Rodgers has to tailor his strategy somewhat to the new arrivals. The defending is still a worry (though they've only conceded 1 more goal than Arsenal, 2 more than ManCity and 1 less than ManUnited) and the lack of potency without Sturridge arguably moreso. But Sturridge will return, at least some of the new signings will gel and should grow in confidence as the season goes on. In terms of challenging for the title, that's most certainly gone, but in terms of challenging for the top 4, Liverpool are only 2 points away from 4th spot despite playing some frankly average football, as this article says. The article assumes that United will improve, so why not Liverpool?
Paul Graham
Guest
As a Liverpool fan I agree with a lot of what you have written. The pivotal game last year was about 5 from the end, against West Brom. This showed the lack of Plan B when holding a narrow lead. Leading 1-0 Liverpool played ping pong between Mignolet and the defenders until Toure had a back pass intercepted and West Brom scored to ear a draw and 2 points lost. Fast forward to the Chelsea game and Gerrard's slip, when the ball should have been up the other end anyway and nowhere near Liverpool's goal. Fast forward to this season and the last minute against Everton, with the ball near Liverpool's goal yet again and ditto. After the West Brom game Rodgers said "The ball should not have been there [i.e. back in defence]". So why hasn't he stopped it; doesn't he have any control on the style of play?! Suarez was irreplaceable but their main problem last year and why they fell short was conceding too many goals. This is still a problem but without a good striker up front they don't have a chance. Transfer targets missed this year: Sanchez, Falcao, Remy, Bony, etc. Rodgers' report to date: good but naïve and nowhere near the top of the class.
Fadida
Guest
Excellent comments. The Suarez money would have been better spent on 1-2 outstanding players (with big wages), rather than 6-7 average ones to pad out the squad. It will be a big window for Liverpool. Will they stay with the elite, or continue to mirror Spurs from last season; lose your best player, replace him with 6 average ones then go backwards?
Fadida
Guest
United have far more quality than Liverpool Steve. The January window will be a key. A quality CB with leadership skills would be all they really need, though I'd love to see a quality all round midfielder. Carrick returning may help. Fellaini finding his Everton form would too. The difference between MU and LFC is that the former can attract tops quality players, whether that be for reputation or financial reasons. The latter are buying 20 million pound players who do nothing to improve their level eg Allen, Lallana, markovic, Can, Loverens, players who as you say aren't wanted by any other "big" team anywhere. Rogers, who I really quite rate, needs to show he can attract better players, or at least cheaper unknowns that he can develop into quality players. They have an average squad with few quality players, lots of hardworking players, but few game changers