Last spots for the Cup will heat up on Derby Day

With Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup fast approaching the field is set to be finalised following the Derby meeting.

There are still plenty of horses that can make the field so it’s important that we keep our eyes on the current order of entry.

I’d say the last two spots in the Cup will cause a nail-biting few hours for trainers and connections, especially those involved with the 14 who will race in the Mackinnon and Lexus Stakes.

Running on the Saturday doesn’t necessarily mean a bad result either with Kelinni winning the Lexus Stakes in 2012 before running a brave fourth in the Melbourne Cup on the Tuesday.

Even better was Maluckyday in 2010, who ran second to Americain with So You Think third. John Hawkes has another runner in the same situation this year in La Amistad, but the half-sister to Makybe Diva hasn’t been outstanding this preparation.

Unchain My Heart (24th) or Shoreham (25th) are right on the brink of getting into the Cup, but it’s a fine line, especially when other horses like Lord Van Percy, Caravan Rolls On, Big Memory, Let’s Make Adeal, Marksmanship, Wish Come True, Like A Carousel, Signoff and Thunderbird One all must win on Saturday to take part.

In fact there is just one runner taking its place on Saturday that is guaranteed a start. That’s the Peter Moody-trained Brambles, which currently sits 18th on the order of entry. It’s not impossible to win the Melbourne Cup from Derby Day but it’s highly unlikely.

The last horse to do it was Bart Cumming’s Viewed, who ran 11th in the Mackinnon before holding off all challengers to become the only horse since 2000 to run on Derby Day and win the Cup. Perhaps Peter Moody has seen some inspiration from the great master?

The big jumper of the field could be Amralah, who only needs a top-three finish to jump into the Melbourne Cup.

Chief Handicapper Greg Carpenter explained why this would be the case.

“If Amralah runs first, second or third, he passes a qualifying clause for the Melbourne Cup,” Carpenter said..

“Because Amralah already has 54.5kg in the Melbourne Cup, he would then get into the field if connections want to back him up on Tuesday.”

That would mean a nervous wait for Araldo’s trainer Michael Maroney, who has to watch the day unfold with his horse on the sidelines. He will certainly be hoping that Amralah doesn’t perform on its Australian debut.

There is also the very real possibility My Ambivalent, who currently sits ninth on the Order of Entry, could be scratched from Australia’s premier staying race. She pulled up lame after a workout yesterday and will be vetted to confirm or deny her place in Tuesday’s race.

If My Ambivalent is scratched Araldo would all but take place in the Melbourne Cup, moving up to 22 if it does happen, after earlier this week sitting precariously at number 24 in the Order of Entry.

Current Melbourne Cup Order of Entry and situation (those close to the edge).

22. Lidari (safe)
23. Araldo (Not racing this weekend, connections didn’t believe Araldo would back up and have decided to play the waiting game)
24. Unchain My Heart (running in Lexus Stakes, could get jumped in order by the winner, and if My Ambivalent is scratched could still make the field if Amralah doesn’t place)
25. Shoreham (running in Lexus Stakes, not in current field and needs Lexus Stakes win to guarantee making the field)
26. La Amistad (Must win Lexus Stakes)
27. Caravan Rolls On (Must win Lexus Stakes)
28. Big Memory (Must win Lexus Stakes)
29. Prince of Penzance (Heading towards the Sandown Classic)
30. Lord Van Percy (Must win Lexus Stakes)
31. Noble Protector (Won’t be running in the Cup)
32. Let’s Make Adeal (Must win Lexus Stakes)
33. Marksmanship (Must win Lexus Stakes)
34. Wish Come True (Must win Lexus Stakes)
35. Like a Carousel (Must win Lexus Stakes)
36. Signoff (Must win Lexus Stakes, current favourite for the race)
37. Amralah (Can come first, second or third in Mackinnon to make the Melbourne Cup based on weight)
38. Gris Caro (Done and dusted)
39. Thunderbird One (Must win Lexus Stakes)