The Wallabies will win the 2015 Rugby World Cup. I know there are few who share my optimism, given the Wallabies’ recent uninspiring results, the problems in-house at ARU headquarters, and the extreme toughness of our World Cup pool.
But between our progress on the field and our successful history of World Cups in the Northern Hemisphere, we can once again ‘bring back Bill’.
Obviously there has to be more reasons than what’s happened in the past to convince people that this is the Wallaby side which will win our third World Cup.
Given that the 2015 edition is shaping up to be the most competitive to date, with the top-six sides in the world boasting squads and individuals capable of taking their team to victory, a number of bricks have to be in place to create a solid winning formula and foundation.
A year older, a year wiser
There is no shying away from the fact that we have a young team, most of whom will be competing in their first ever World Cup. We also have the youngest Test captain in Michael Hooper, one of our most consistent and best performers over the last six months.
While his commitment and consistency is unquestionable, he is relatively new at leading a team, and at making the tough on-field decisions that go with wearing the armband. Declining penalty kicks at goal in the recent Rugby Championship pointed to the inexperience of our 23-year-old captain, suggesting the need for an older leader, but Hooper has my vote.
Not only does he have the respect of those more experienced players, he represents a changing Wallaby side, not willing to take a backwards step and take their game to the opposition.
To put it bluntly, he represents a group who have the balls to back themselves, regardless of the consequences.
He also will be a year older, as will the fresh faces in the Wallaby squad like Tevita Kuridrani, Henry Speight, and Sean McMahon to name a few. A spring tour, another Super Rugby season, and Rugby Championship under their belt will have these young players better prepared for a shot at the title.
The pressure is on the home nations
We all witnessed the intense pressure that the Kiwis were under from their fans and media at the 2011 World Cup in New Zealand. Although they won the championship, it was an unconvincing stumble over the line against France in the final, and the full-time whistle brought immediate feelings of relief rather than jubilation.
There is no doubt that we have the toughest of all pools, having to play both Wales and England at Twickenham, even before thinking about what’s to come in the knockout stages. But like the All blacks, the weight of the nation will be on our opponents’ shoulders, and the expectation and pressure might prove to be too much.
The Wallabies will be under pressure too, but being away from home means being away from the local media.
For a side littered with players whose short careers have at times been chastised by the papers, being ‘out of the bubble’ allows them to concentrate on on-field matters, rather than be concerned that they are constantly being watched off it.
We are not peaking too early
If the World Cup were to kick off tomorrow, I wouldn’t be proclaiming that we could win it.
Given the problems currently taking place at the ARU, the friction over the Kurtley Beale/Di Patson saga, the sudden exit of Ewen McKenzie, and the recent injury list that saw Will Genia and Quade Cooper only return at the weekend’s game against the Barbarians, there is no way we would be able to overturn a team like the All Blacks, even if we did make it to the final.
There have been signs though, during the Rugby Championship and the last games under McKenzie, that we are creating more attacking chances and line breaks, just failing to put the finishing touches and converting them into points.
Given the way the Waratahs played this season, it is a fair assumption Michael Cheika will keep this intent to attack and take the game to the opposition. He has just under a year to get the players familiar to his game plan, so that they are all on the same page come September next year.
As mentioned, the recent return of injured players like Genia and Cooper are key to our success, as it takes more than the 15 players who start the game to win a World Cup. By this time next year, they will have hopefully had an injury-free 10 months, and provide healthy competition to the incumbent halves pairing of Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley.
No one knows what will happen over the next 10 months leading up to the World Cup. We would love to have a crystal ball to foresee which players will be in the best form and those who unfortunately succumb to injury, so that we could make the necessary plans now so as to be better prepared.
What we can do though, is control the controllables. Get things right off the field, as well as build on the positive on-field signs that I’ve mentioned, to give us the best possible chance to win our third World Cup.
The best thing is there is still time. Let’s not waste it.
Nabley
Guest
Why does every scribe in Australia want to cruel the long term hopes of the Wallabies by prematurely claiming the next RWC. Some times the outpouring of false pride in achievements still to come and poorly thought through risks and opportunities makes me feel just a little sick in the stomach. With Cheika at the helm, the Wallabies now have a chance which they didn't under Mackenzie (barring a bum ref like Lawrence in 2011 that the Boks would tell you about without asking). The RWC is not a stand alone Test, it is a drawn out competition which Cheika has shown he excels at. But the reality is there is a long way to go. Hooper has yet to prove himself as a captain of on field leadership substance. In the contest that is the RWC, it is a combination of on field leadership and depth that wins it. The Wallabies currently lack depth which makes them vulnerable to a critical injury. Right now Hooper is a rugby larrikin masquerading as a captain surrounded by a very talented group of players who do things in spite of him. He needs to realise that there is more to captaincy than that. Then we may have a chance barring the influence of Lady Luck which every team needs on their side. Ask both the All Blacks and the French.
Monash
Guest
Actually, Wales is a map reference.......
Monash
Guest
Two World Cups mate........looking for a third. Not bad for a fourth tier sport in a little country. Oh. And Super Rugby champions. Oh, and beat the Boks. Oh and nearly did for the ABs......of course they are a chance for 2015.
Jake
Guest
Hahaha I don't know what's funnier this crap all the Aussie cricket team getting hammered in Pakistan I've said it all along the Aussies will be lucky to get out of the group and if they do they'll be runner up which means a clash most likely with South Africa yeah good luck with that tournament over!
BetterRedThanDead
Guest
Agree with Chivas - cheap, unimaginative contribution
Johns
Guest
Why even bother reading this article regarding the teams chances of winning if you dislike them so much. People like you is what make countries like NZ laugh at Aussie supporters. Aus union has by far the most negative fans in any sport I have witnessed. Your comments are not constructive and are constant put downs of the current playing stock only backed by your subjective dislike of each player. You do not know them on a personal level so how do you know they don't care about the jersey People like you WobbliesFan is why Matt G, Drew Mitchell and Co love it overseas and will never come back. They still get "overpaid" but don't play for ungrateful supporters and get to enjoy their rugby.
Glad you got got that out in the open ;)
Common Sense
Guest
Did you not read the first paragraph?
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Fantastic post Billy Bob, couldn't agree more. As I noted below though, the headline of the article may not have been Adam's, he made reference in his article that they " can " win but never said they will win it. This one could be on the roar.
Mike
Guest
Give us a break Hori - you don't win anything. You just happen to be a groupie for a team that does win. I don't read the All Blacks gobbing off and disparaging others the way you do. Why don't you take a leaf out of their book and act like a man for a change?
Bobbo7
Guest
I think you will find the ABs will go up a notch or two next year.
John
Guest
I agree with you Adam The most important component of Cheika's coaching this year has been to instill a belief that the game is not lost until the whistle is blown. It happened on a number of occasions, and if Australia are to win the world cup, then this is a prerequisite, as it always is with the AB's. In a way, it happened on Sat, with a huge defensive effort beyond the 80 minute mark. The big threat I believe will be England who have a huge talent pool to choose from. If we cant get them in the Pool game, then we end up on the AB's side of the draw
Greg
Guest
Cheap shot at the end also mate... We all know no one leaves Aust to move to NZ for 15yrs unless they have just purchased a caravan...
Chivas
Guest
So simple Mielle for the blind and ign0rant. Who TF are you or anyone else to tell someone else when and when they cannot get excited about an upcoming fixture. There is a lot of ribbing that goes on whether it between states or countries; but when people take their own opinion as the gospel truth to the point they can't even acknowledge or understand a different perspective which is spelt out... well ignorant is the word that springs to mind not humbleness or humility. It may just be me, but that is certainly the way these comments come across. And finally as a rugby fan who backs their team against all odds and I have seen Waikato go from champs to chumps in the space of a few weeks, made bets when all money is going in the opposite direction for no other reason than blind unwavering support, been on the sideline after getting slaughtered having barracked for the Mooloo men for the game and the lead up to it... I say politely and with all humility FK you and those that think fans should remain quiet about their hopes for their team. I hope the Wallabies do get up and go from strength to strength. I am excited by the direction things are going. I hope QLD comes back from last years disaster hungry and motivated to regain their mantle. Will I give QLDers lip and suggest they will struggle to get off the bottom rung. Of course :-), but that is for me what being a fan is about.
Greg
Guest
Pulling a couple of tr0lling headlines to sell papers over 15yrs hardly cements your point... I agreed with you in so far that the media builds up the team and pulls them down quickly- you must have missed my point through that angry mist that sits above your forehead. Your comments on aust supporters mentality is wrong in my opinion. But what would I know- I only support the team and am the person you are commenting on.
ChrisT
Guest
Mate, self evident you 'don't spend much time thinking about them'. What's even more evident is that when it comes to this topic, you don't spend much time in rational or balanced thought full stop. Along with many other regular posters I enjoy your rugby input and knowledge. However you're demonstrating that basic intelligence or even general worldliness doesn't necessarily follow.
ashrican
Roar Rookie
one of 4 chance NZ, Boks, Eng, Aus. Wales, France, Ireland semi's at best This article analysis is spot on. With Cheika at the helm Australia are probably a 1/4 chance of winning the WC between topping one of NZ, SA, Eng. Folau, O'Connor, Cummins, Tomane, Speight, AAC, Kuridrani, Le'ilefano, Toomua, Foley, Giteau, Genia, Phipps Higginbotham, McCalman, Hodgson, Hooper, McMahon, Fardy, Carter, Horwill, Simmons, Skelton, Kefu, Slipper, TPN, Moore, Hanson / Mann-Rae, Robinson, Alexander, Faulkner don't need Cooper, Beale or White - that squad above can do the business at highest level, and Aus have the necessary psychology to take it out at WC level as they proved 91, 99, and 03 taking Eng to extra time in final.
JeffRo
Roar Pro
Ireland and Wales can upset in a match, but won't win the cup. I have ABs as top pick, then SA followed by England. And I can't wait!
Conflict_Bob
Guest
To win a RWC you have to win 3 knock out games over consecutive weekends. In 2011 it was almost a bridge too far for the ABs and the French managed themselves through the tournament enabling them to save their best for last. You also lose players over the tournament to injury meaning you need a deep squad. England, Australia and Wales have the added difficulty of pool play in RWC 2015. If Australia were to win RWC 2015 they would have to play 5 difficult games on consecutive weekends ~ England, Wales, QF, SF and Final. If they loose to England then that means possibly 4 knock out games back to back. England's last pool game is against Uruguay and so they get a chance to rest players before QFs start. While pool A is difficult for all three countries, it is particularly challenging for Australia since Eng & Wales are Australia's last two pool games. The fact that Australia have to play 5 tough games over consecutive weekends IMO will make winning RWC 2015 very very difficult indeed.
Conflict_Bob
Guest
To win a RWC you have to win 3 knock out games over consecutive weekends. In 2011 it was almost a bridge too far for the ABs and the French managed themselves through the tournament enabling them to save their best for last. You also lose players over the tournament to injury meaning you need a deep squad. England, Australia and Wales have the added difficulty of pool play in RWC 2015. If Australia were to win RWC 2015 they would have to play 5 difficult games on consecutive weekends ~ England, Wales, QF, SF and Final. If they loose to England then that means possibly 4 knock out games back to back. England's last pool game is against Uruguay and so they get a chance to rest players before QFs start. While pool A is difficult for all three countries, it is particularly challenging for Australia since Eng & Wales are Australia's last two pool games. The fact that Australia have to play 5 tough games over consecutive weekends IMO will make winning RWC 2015 very very difficult indeed.