It’s hard to deny that the SEC West is the premier conference in college football.
With the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss, Auburn, Mississippi State and LSU all battling for the top spot and a chance to go into the SEC conference game, a situation could arise where they ruin each other’s chances because of how competitive their conference is.
Right now Mississippi State sits in the top four and Alabama just out of it. They play each other this week so one of them is going to fall down the rankings. Alabama will then host Auburn, Ole Miss hosts Mississippi State and Georgia (with Gurley back) will also host Auburn.
Say Alabama and Ole Miss win at home against Mississippi State. Georgia beats Auburn and Auburn beats Alabama. This will leave a bunch of two-loss SEC teams competing for a top-four spot.
If we look at the teams likely to be above them you have the unbeaten Florida State with an away game to Miami, home games to Boston College College and Florida and an ACC championship game remaining. They would be heavily favoured in all four of those games. They win out their remaining four games they will finish above any two-loss SEC team.
Oregon have Colorado and Oregon State away. Arizona State has Oregon State and Arizona away along with Washington State at home. If these two win their remaining games, the winner of the PAC Championship game will get in over any two-loss SEC team.
You then have TCU and Baylor who sit fourth and sixth in the rankings. Baylor has a tougher run home but their tough games are at home to Oklahoma State and Kansas State with an away game at Texas Tech. TCU play Kansas and Texas away with a home game to Iowa State.
It’s hard to see them dropping any ranking points and if the SEC teams around them are cutting at each other they can only go up. It would be very hard not to see one of these teams in the top four, possibly even two of them.
Then you have Ohio State and Nebraska who are both one-loss sides. Should they win their remaining games a strong case for a one-loss Big Ten champion to be included in the top four could be made. Ohio State has Minnesota away and Indiana and Michigan at home while Nebraska has Wisconsin and Iowa away and Minnesota at home.
Only one thing for certain in the NCAAF is that nothing is certain. Auburn losing this week was a reminder of that. The run home will certainly be an interesting one with some major clashes, especially in the SEC coming up.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Florida State should be #1. Alabama #2. Oregon #3..............I expect Mississippi State to be #4. They deserve to be above TCU who got lucky against Kansas. Baylor might even jump TCU even without playing. Ohio State, Wisconsin and Georgia will be big movers. Auburn, Arizona State and Notre Dame are gone. Missouri should creep into the top 25 which is interesting as they lead the SEC east and have two very much winnable games left. If Missouri makes it to the SEC champ game and can somehow knock off the west winner then the SEC will likely miss out on a top 4 side. How I would see the rankings of the top 20 1 Florida State +2 (won by 3 vs Miami) 2 Alabama +3 (won by 5 vs Mississippi State) 3 Oregon -1 (didn't play) 4 Mississippi State -3 (lost by 5 vs Alabama) 5 Ohio State +3 (won by 7 vs Minnesota) 6 Baylor +1 (didn't play) 7 TCU -3 (won by 4 vs Kansas) 8 Ole Miss +2 (didn't play) 9 Georgia +6 (won by 27 vs Auburn) 10 Michigan State +2 (won by 22 vs Maryland) 11 UCLA - (didn't play) 12 Wisconsin +8 (Won by 35 vs Nebraska) 13 Kansas State - (didn't play) 14 Arizona - (won by 1 vs Washington) 15 Georgia Tech +7 (won by 22 vs Clemson) 16 Arizona State -10 (lost by 8 to Oregon State) 17 Auburn -8 (lost by 27 to Georgia) 18 Utah +5 (won by 3 vs Stanford) 19 Marshall new (won by 27 vs Rice) 20 Missouri new (won by 7 vs Texas A&M) A lot of sides ranked 16 downwards copped losses this week #16 Nebraska lost by 35, #17 LSU lost by 17 in a shut out, #18 Notre Dame lost by 3, #19 Clemson lost by 22, #21 Duke lost by 1, #24 Texas AM lost by 7, #25 Minnesota lost by 7. Might see a lot of new faces in the bottom end of the top 25
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
This week is interesting. Florida State and Miami are about even with the bookies, Georgia is favored to beat Auburn and Alabama is 9 point favourite over Mississippi State. Nebraska is 7 point underdog to Wisconsin and Ohio State has a tricky away game to Minnesota. Arizona State have a tricky one away to Oregon State too. This week will clear up a lot of things
Steve
Guest
Can't see SEC missing out completely. What's great about this season is how many scenarios can play out over the last few weeks. For mine, there is a very real chance FSU misses out all together. Given the strenght of their schedule even 1 loss might be enough to tip them out of the top four...that could come at Miami this weekend (where they're anything but 'heavily favoured').
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Yeah, this is potentially Shake-Up Saturday!
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
This week will be interesting. Mississippi State are 9 point underdogs and if they go down you might find them drop down to 6th
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Chances that the SEC miss out are highly unlikely. The carnage we'd need to see over the coming weeks would be extreme, so maybe that'd be kinda fun - I mean, college football is at it's best when teams are being knocked over like ninepins. I still feel like it'll be Mississippi State vs. Oregon or Florida State for all the candy. I'd like to see FSU miss out, to be honest.