It’s still very early in the NBA season to be having an MVP debate, but with player moves like that of LeBron James and injuries to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, it’s worth an early look.
This year’s MVP could be the most hotly contested in a while. Right at the pointy end of candidates is former #1 pick and athletic sensation Anthony ‘Brow Down’ Davis with very good reason.
Rewind a couple of years when Davis was a rookie coming out of Kentucky and it was easy to fall in love with the block party, high-flying dunk mix tapes on YouTube.
Back then his potential was there for all to see, but most scouting reports came back with the same info – great finisher around the rim but needs a more polished offensive game. As a rookie with the Hornets, he showed plenty of that potential but was not given a heavy workload by Monty Williams.
The coach chose instead to develop his game over time instead of throwing him into the fire expecting results.
This strategy paid off in Davis’ second season. His game progressed even further with a significant jump in both his total output and per 36 minute stats. His statement of intent came in March this year when he posted a monster 40-point, 21-rebound game (both career highs) against the Celtics.
Unfortunately the Pelicans were hit with injury issues all season, forcing star players Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday to sit out long periods. Anderson being out for 60 games hurt the floor spacing dramatically and the Pelicans offence was not anything to marvel at. By the time they got close to full strength, their season was over.
During the off-season, the Pelicans went all in with their chips and traded a first round pick for Omer Asik so Davis could play more power forward and develop his mid-range game.
Davis also spent another stint with USA Basketball in Spain, but this time he wasn’t watching from the sidelines. In 20mpg he posted 12.3ppg on 55 per cent shooting and led the tournament in blocked shots on the way to the gold medal.
The time spent with coach ‘K’ and the USA program has really benefited a lot of players over the years and Davis was one of the players to make the most of it.
Heading into this season Davis was not talked about as a serious MVP candidate – bookies had him at $33 before the first game – but in the first nine games he has come out firing.
His raw stats – 25.2ppg (3rd) on 58 per cent shooting, 11.7rpg (3rd) and 4.0bpg (1st) are impressive, but the advanced stats are even more amazing.
His 37.11 PER is crazy good (Wilt Chamberlain has the best PER for a season with 31.62) and he tops every other metric such as Estimated Value Added (124.6) and Estimated Wins Added (4.2) by a very big margin.
It would be silly to think that he would maintain those inflated numbers, given all of the Pelicans wins – except for a last possession winner from Davis over the Spurs – have come against sub .500 teams. Even if he regresses back to the mean, it’s a long way back to what would be a ‘normal’ figure, it will still be a stellar season.
So what makes this season different from the previous two and what can we expect from the Pelicans?
First off, through the first nine games of the season the Pelicans have used two different starting line-ups and were only forced to after Omer Asik was unavailable for their recent game against Portland.
That kind of stability leads to familiarity with the players, something Davis has not had a lot of during his first two seasons. The more the starting line-up of Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Asik play together, the more they understand each other’s games and the plays and variations that Monty Williams wants to run.
That combination outscores opponents by 15.6 points when it is on the floor, which is not a bad outcome. Throw Ryan Anderson in with Davis and those two with a combination of three other players outscores opponents by 11.2 points.
The big difference in Davis’ performances this year has been the improvement in his mid-range game, along with a step up in his defensive prowess. This season outside of 16 feet from the basket, Davis is shooting a highly respectable 43.8 per cent (compared to 36.8per cent last season) while taking his second most shot attempts from this range.
Defenders must now drag themselves out of the paint to defend Davis to deal with the jump shot and this allows more room for the offence to work in – critical when Omer Asik is also on the floor.
If Davis can add a corner three to his repertoire over the course of the season then he could be even more devastating than he currently is. One facet of his game this season is that he is a remarkably consistent producer for the Pelicans. He can be counted on for his 25 and 13 most games and has really only put in one poor showing, which was against a tough Memphis side.
Also much improved this season is his defence as he learns how to move and operate in the NBA environment. With Omer Asik by his side there is no longer the responsibility to be the sole defensive anchor on the team. Davis can frequently be seen out on the perimeter guarding the team’s best wing – he was out on LeBron on a few possessions late in a loss to the Cavs. His steal and block numbers have sky rocketed from 1.3spg and 2.8bpg last season to 2.3spg and 4.0bpg this year.
The steal numbers can be credited to operating more in the passing lanes and with his length that has to worry opposition teams.
Many NBA observers were critical of the Pelicans for throwing away first round picks in trades for Jrue Holiday and Omer Asik while also paying big money for players like Eric Gordon (warranted) and Tyreke Evans (having a killer season).
When you recognise that you have a future superstar on your roster, then why not try and surround him with quality pieces, even if that means sacrificing cap space and draft picks.
Cleveland had that situation with LeBron and failed to bring in role players that could make a difference (whether or not that was on LeBron is debate for another time). The Pelicans know they are onto a good thing and are making a play on proven talent rather than waiting to see if their future draft picks were NBA quality or hoping for free agents to sign with them further down the road.
I for one am excited to see how great Anthony Davis can be and I would not be at all surprised if he beats out LeBron, DeMarcus Cousins, Durant, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin for the MVP title. If the Pelicans can keep it together, hone their style of play and make the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference – then he has every chance.
He is still paying $4 to win the MVP with some betting agencies, so get on while he is still great value.
It might soon be time to Brow Down to the youngest ever MVP.
Nick
Guest
Maaaaaaaan, great point on Mike Conley, only thing I would disagree with is that he could be regarded as the most underrated point guard of the last few years, especially as the seasons have got longer. Mark talks about the Pelicans (I refuse to call them the Pellies) and their consistent team line-ups, but that's even more true of the Grizzlies, they haven't had any major overhauls for a few years so they come in knowing each other. Grizzlies are a solid team, a lot of American NBA writers seemed to forget that Gasol was injured for a large part of the start of last season and they still topped 50 wins (I think) when it came to writing their season previews. Being a Thunder fan makes you aware of how good the Grizzlies are.
Clark
Guest
Randolph and Marc Gasol have been absolute beasts this year so far. Mike Conley is also putting in work. Probably the most underrated point guard in the league at the moment
Mark Pybus
Roar Guru
Haha I would have had something to say if LeBron won it.
Swampy
Guest
I agree with you Mark - Davis is fun to watch and we need more of him. Michael Jordan only won 5 MVP trophies and in hindsight it is very difficult to argue that he wasn't the MVP every year after about 1987 considering he was hands down the greatest basketballer that ever lived. Durant certainly deserved his trophy but there would have been no damnation of Lebron if he had won last year instead of KD.
Mark Pybus
Roar Guru
I think we were a little spoilt by LeBron's numbers in Miami but everything's relative right? He isn't having as good a season as last and he wasn't MVP then. I think the thing that Davis has in his favour is he isn't playing with another All-Star or even someone who would be close to All-Star consideration so when the team wins and he posts big numbers it is easy to assume he is doing all the work (which isn't always the case). I agree that all the teams you mentioned don't have a stand out star and of the teams expected to post big win totals most of them have at least two All-Stars (Houston, Golden State, Clippers, Cavs, Bulls) or a very good team offence/defence (Spurs/Grizzlies). I really hope his injury history doesn't strike again this season, especially if it derails the Pelicans playoff chances.
Swampy
Guest
NBA player of the month. It's November. The vote is done in May. He's going very well though. Davis does have an established injury history however. He hasn't managed a full season yet playing about 75-80% of games and has got injured in the back half of both seasons. I hope that this was more a result of the Pelicans being cautious than a possible frailty that might persist throughout his career. It is also worth keeping in mind that the league MVP has generally come from a team that has an exceptional winning record. It's been a long time since an MVP has played for a team that was below 50 wins - which is more than likely for the Pels. This season in the early stages is presenting quite a bit differently than others - the top few teams really are good teams and not just made up of a superstar or two surrounded by some good role players (with the exception of Houston). Memphis, Toronto and Chicago look like the best teams in the league at the moment but which player would you put forward as the MVP candidate from those teams? Are Marc Gasol or Zach Randolph MVP candidates, or Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol (who sits during crunchtime) or Kyle Lowry and Demaar DeRozan. I was a backer of Blake Griffin for MVP this season because of his added jumper range but the Clippers have looked off the pace early and Griffin is settling for that jumper waaay too much! In the end I think there will be a stretch where Lebron just says 'right, f$@% this - if these guys can't get it together, I'll do it myself' and he will average 32ppg, 10rebs, 9ass and shoot 60% for a month and the Cavs win 15 straight and any debate on who will be MVP will be ended there and then. PS. Lebron James current stats 27.1ppg (2nd), 6.9 rpg, 6.7 apg (10th) and shooting at 49% suggest we are probably being a bit harsh on his 'below par' season thus far - he's pretty much bang on his career averages.
mushi
Guest
That was the odd thing with Rose winning je had a single player of the month and 2 players of the week compared to Howard with 2 months/5 weeks (rose's career tally interestingly enough) and LeBron 3 months (one a tie with wade) and 5 weeks.
Clark
Guest
Yes I do agree with that, that is why you never see San Antonio players in contention despite the teams success. The problem with the MVP voting it is a one off vote necessarily, it is not done through a game by game basis (although player of the week/month awards should give a fair indication)
Mark Pybus
Roar Guru
Curry is another solid contender but he has Bogut lifting the team up defensively and Klay can sometimes steal the spotlight when he gets hot. Davis is the alpha dog for that Pelicans team so that is right in his favour. I wonder if the voters take into account the difficulty of each conference when they cast their votes.
Clark
Guest
In terms of the West, the top contenders I reckon will be Dallas, San Antonio, Memphis, Golden State and OKC if they make the playoffs (which is a BIG IF). The others who will probably make the playoffs. Portlands bench is better this year and could make a run, Clippers haven't added anything from last season (Rely too much on Jamal Craword to rescue them), Houston have no presence inside( Dwight still can't post up) and will get blown out if they are shooting poorly from the perimeter (for example against Memphis)
Clark
Guest
I think if New Orleans make the playoffs (which I think they will at this rate) Davis will get MVP comfortably. It seems there is a lack of competition in terms of stand outs so far. I think if anyone gets it other than Davis it will be either LeBron or Curry ( if they somehow top the West or are close)
astro
Guest
If Eric Gordon is waking up, the Pellies might want to put him back to sleep! His shooting has been a disaster over these first 10 games. But completely agree on the Unis...they're great.
astro
Guest
The big question: Can he win MVP if the Pellies don't make the playoffs? Probably fair to say the Pellies will be in a battle for 8th with the Kings, Suns and a mid-season charging OKC, as Dallas look great and a relatively safe bet for the Western Conference playoffs, as does Houston. For me, its still Lebron, Lebron and Lebron. Despite spending more time getting Irving and Waiters up to speed, his actual numbers haven't dipped, and as the Cavs start to click, he'll only look better.
Mark Pybus
Roar Guru
He has all the tools and finally a team to do it but I wouldn't count out LeBron just yet. His coming home narrative might be too much for the voters (who haven't always been top judges) and Davis doesn't get a lot of national TV coverage.
Mark Pybus
Roar Guru
Funny you should mention Rivers. When doing research I found Rivers name kept popping up in some of the Pelicans most productive 4 man lineups (at least 6 out scored opponents by double digits). Small sample size but even yesterday he checked in and they went on a 10-2 run.
mushi
Guest
From early going it seems like LeBron is more concerned with breaking in Irving and Waiters like they are misbehaving puppies than getting the MVP and Westbrook being out means that the thunder won't have the minimum win total for Durant to get there. So Davis it is, not that he's a default option as his game was genuinely elite last year it just wasn't the points heavy juggernaught that we want to see. His team will need to keep winning though, we've had Kevin Love in this slot before less than 25% of the way in, but if they do and he just trends back towards the mean then it's his to lose.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Started the season at $28 to win MVP... Very unhappy I didn't get on that. Absolutely my favourite player to watch at the moment even if he does look like a foal learning how to walk sometimes. Was disappointed that he didn't really go one on one with Boogie in yesterday's game - two young MVP candidates on surprisingly good teams. Really like everything about the Pellies at the moment. Eric Gordon is finally waking up, Ryan Anderson is great off the bench and Asik has been a terrific defensive anchor. Even Austin Rivers is playing well. Add to that their great suite of uniforms and fantastic looking home court and they're a league pass favourite