The All Blacks will be hardest hit by the post-World Cup exodus

By The Crowd / Roar Guru

Another four-year cycle will conclude in 2015 with the Rugby World Cup. For the three southern hemisphere teams, this always marks a time where their squads change due to the exodus of current players to foreign shores.

Australia and New Zealand have a policy of only selecting locally-based players for their national teams.

South Africa will select a handful of foreign based players. Does this mean, come 2016 Australia and New Zealand will be impacted more than South Africa by the player exodus and retirements?

To figure this out, lets look at the squads, and also try do a bit of crystal gazing. I admit my knowledge may be lacking and may not know all the players, that’s why I want to put this question out there.

My predicted Rugby World Cup squads

South Africa
Willie le Roux, Johan Goosen*
JP Pieterson, Cornel Hendricks, Brian Habana*, Seobela Senatla
Damian Dallende, Jan Serfontein, Frans Steyn
Handre Pollard, Pat Lambie, Morne Steyn*
Fourie du Preez*, Ruan Pienaar*, Coubous Reinach
Duan Vermeerlen, Schalk Burger
Willem Alberts, Oupa Mohojo
Francios Louw*, Marcel Coetzee
Victor Matfiled, Pieter Steph du Toit
Eben Etzebeth, Flip vd Merwe, Lood de Jaager
Beast Mtawarira, Marcel vd Merwe, Trevor Nykane
Bismark du Plesis, Adrian Strauss, Schalk Britz*
Jannie du Plesis, Frans Malherbe, Coenie Oostehuisen

*= foreign based

After the 2015 Rugby World Cup, I predict Fourie du Preez, Schalk Burger, Victor Matfield and Schalk Britz to retire.

In 2016, I predict Thomas du Toit to play for the Springboks. du Toit is a man mountain of a loose head prop who represented South Africa in their U20 tournament this year as well as the Sharks in the S15. Big things are expected from this guy.

Malcolm Marx, also a large man for a 20-year-old hooker at 119kg. Built like Bismark du Plesis only bigger. Very mobile, he also played in the SAU20 team and represented the Lions at S15.

He has been unlucky with injuries in 2014 though.

Jessie Kriel, can the Blue Bulls centre/fullback kick on from the promise he has shown. He also played for the SAU20 team and represented the Bulls at S15.

So all in all, I predict that in 2016 the Springboks to be able to pick from most of their 2015 players and add a few young bright prospects.

Australia will lose a number of players overseas like James Horwill and Sekope Kepu. There are also rumours of some other high profile players target by foreign clubs. However, looking at the current Australian squad, the players all look relatively young. So if they can retain most of them, I would expect Australia to be strong in 2016.

The same can’t be said for New Zealand, with players like Dan Carter going overseas and others like Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealamu, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Conrad Smith, Mau Nonu likely to retire.

As well as a host of others to probably take up foreign contracts, my general feeling is that New Zealand will be the hardest hit of the three southern teams. New Zealand rugby does always have depth, and I am sure will bounce back, but I expect their squad to change the most post World cup.

So all in all, with Australia having a fairly youthful squad and South Africa continuing to select foreign based players, I expect New Zealand to experience the biggest disruption post World Cup.

The Crowd Says:

2014-12-23T19:57:37+00:00

firstxv

Guest


Reads out of the McCaw mould. He won't leave any earlier than he should. He'll want to be captain for the Lions series and he next World cup in 19. Don't get why Frueans name keeps popping up. Hansens always ruled him out because his heart condition means he needs to rest and recover at times during a match. He wouldn't get away with that at the test level.

2014-12-23T13:21:14+00:00

Birdy

Guest


It might be 'exciting', but as an opponent I'd much rather play that one than the likely team the ABs will field at RWC 2015.

2014-12-23T03:31:27+00:00

firstxv

Guest


Even O'Driscoll is concerned about the gym monkey syndrome that seems to make NH players think theyll be better if they're bigger set. Watching the NZ SA semi I think it was it was like men against boys and its no surprise that the two biggest sides were in the final. Skill can't match that sort of size difference. It's later on when they have to start matching the mobility, skill AND size of the AB's where they could come unstuck. Agree with the first comment as well. Touch rugby and skills with ball in hand will always teach a player about space where a gym not. I think this is why NZ's administrators are not overly concerned about the U20 results.

2014-12-23T03:21:34+00:00

Play the Game

Guest


All nations will lose senior players after the RWC. The nations with the most depth will adjust more quickly and will be up to speed a lot faster as a result.Hence, the AB's ,Boks and England will be fine,but the other top ten ranked Nations will struggle including the Wallabies.

2014-12-23T02:58:28+00:00

Mike Breen

Roar Rookie


Everyone seems to be overlooking the most important all black... Kieran Read. He's the obvious choice to captain and anchor New Zealand until 2019..but what if he leaves? He's borderline irreplaceable at this stage. 2016 all blacks,- Franks, Coles, Franks, Whitelock, Retallick, Luatua, Cane, Read, Smith, Cruden, Savea, Crotty, Fekitoa, Smith, Dagg. Very exciting team

2014-12-22T08:58:22+00:00

Magnus

Guest


My side moody , Coles / tamifuna , franks o , retalick ,whitelock tupiloto macaw read smith Barrett /slade nonu , f Ranger ,savea fekitoa , dagg

2014-12-22T08:51:47+00:00

Magnus

Guest


My side would be

2014-12-22T08:34:15+00:00

firstxv

Guest


pedantic true...but still good.

2014-12-22T07:52:11+00:00

lassitude

Guest


Actually Fruean is from Wellington not Canterbury. And his major issue is his heart condition - the rest is solvable. I like him and wish him well. I just don't know if he'll make it or not but if his ticker holds up then I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the mix 2016. I think your views show you don't watch much at scrum time -particularly since the engagement rules changed. Apart from anything else the new rules seem to suit Crockett. To see what difference Ben Franks makes at LH simply watch last year and the year before whenever he started ahead of Woody or subbed on for him - the difference was large and not in the way you're reporting. He got less time at LH this year - as I mentioned earlier I don't know why since I thought his move to the Hurricanes was to push his credentials as a specialist LH. And a point of pedantry. You don't take off sunglasses because they blind you - you put them on to stop being blinded.

2014-12-22T00:42:23+00:00

Killzone250

Guest


I know this is a blog site and you are expressing your own personal opinion but "I'd put Ben Franks as the best scrummaging LH" ...REALLY??? In what alternative universe? Ben Franks is the worst performing bench player we have, he generally adds absolutely nothing when substituting. Crocket starts before him and Crocket is just a slightly upmarket version of Ben & Benn the Aussie penalty machines, although to be fair Crocket played lot better this year than I thought he would. But Ben Franks...no way is he a solid international prop. And Robbie Fruean will never see an AB jersey unless he learns to tackle, something he is woeful at for such a big man, his tackling technique is simply awful. You need to take off your red and black sunglasses...they are blinding you.

2014-12-21T23:59:40+00:00

lassitude

Guest


Woody isn't the best scrummaging LH at all any longer- and his form in 2012-eoy 2013 didn't deserve selection on any count and he's been out for a some of this season so it's hard to say where he's at. Actually I'd put Ben Franks as the best scrummaging LH but for some reason he's been coming off the bench more often than not at TH Franks and Crockett are simply better at everything else as well. If Fruean can stay fit and simply get continual game time week-on-week (i.e. if his condition allows it ) then the rest of his game will come - particularly his positional defence. This will be helped by having Crotty inside him at super level. Whether that's enough to get him the trust of the selectors - who knows. The Crotty Fruean combo has been pretty special since under age NZ sides, it'd certainly be a nice story if Fruean's health allowed him to make the grade. As far as hooker is concerned I don't know why Corey Flynn wasn't thrown a bone - we may well need him next year; the pickings are pretty lean. Not a prospect post 2015 IMO though.

2014-12-21T22:30:30+00:00

Killzone250

Guest


Woody is still New Zealand's best LH scrummager by a mile, its not even close. His cleanout work is also top-rate, but you are right he doesnt get round the track very quickly anymore, age catches up to us all. Mealamu is still there because there is no-one else. I think if Mealamu was injured and Andrew Hore came back, he would be the backup such is the lack of quality from our younger upcoming rakes. I really can see a Fekitoa-Crotty partnership developing, Fruen...not so much. I can't see him playing for the AB's as he simply a poor defender.

2014-12-21T20:35:09+00:00

lassitude

Guest


McCaw and Kaino will be missed both as individuals and as part of a very good backrow. I'd expect both Luatua and Cane will step up but it might take a year or two until they are fully bedded in as runon players. I'd expect players like Shields and Todd will push them as well. Nonu will be missed and more to the point the Nonu-Smith combo will be. I can see a Crotty - Fekitoa or Crotty - Freuan (if he stays fit) or even possibly for a while a Crotty-Kahui combo all going quite well. I think Crotty will become the key man in midfield though and probaby mean NZ will revert to a more natural 2 5/8 game as well. Mealamu is toast. He won't be missed for playing ability, He simply doesn't have it any longer at test level and hasn't for a couple of years. The 2nd and 3rd hooker spot will be an interesting workon though. And it's not as if Coles is at the top of the international pecking order of hookers - far from it. Woody has been mostly poor since 2011. He's no longer as good as Ben Franks or Crockett. Great player that he was, he won't be missed.

2014-12-21T20:00:03+00:00

Patches

Guest


Ii agree there are quite a few new All Blacks that can and will do the job.

2014-12-21T19:41:39+00:00

Killzone250

Guest


I was actually insinuating that some of the baby Boks might be on the juice. Their front row was as big if not bigger than the Springbok front row...at age 19 !! And its not as if no baby Bok has ever been caught doping before. http://www.rugby365.com/article/52463-botha-quits-after-positive-test

2014-12-21T16:04:06+00:00

Mukhtar

Guest


The English, themselves, are worried about the impact of 'gym-monkey' culture on the careers of the of their young rugby players.. Simon Shaw raised this concern in 2009, and Nick Easter did so recently.. With increasing awareness of the concussion-related impact on player health and well-being, the rugby community as a whole, must think of the fall-out of this manic obsession with bulk... Bigger players translate to bigger hits, from a younger age, leading to greater risk of physical, mental injury... Rugby is becoming a game of strength/athleticism, from one of skills.

2014-12-21T14:19:57+00:00

Birdy

Guest


Don't think I was jumping to an irrational conclusion. You said that lately England and the Boks had some 'very big' players and then went on almost immediately to list your worries that the development of younger guys wasn't 'natural'. I've no idea whether you're an AB fan or not; but the 'hint' that the strength of England and the Boks at U20 level in the last few years might not be 'natural' is a far from uncommon one among Kiwis seeking an explanation for the end of NZ dominance at that level.

2014-12-21T10:06:14+00:00

Clark

Guest


I think the two biggest losses in this group are McCaw and Conrad Smith, I think we will recover in no time though. Hopefully our depth in the hooking position will be strengthened by then.

2014-12-21T09:31:44+00:00

Killzone250

Guest


How typical of you to think I was referring to England.

2014-12-21T07:08:50+00:00

Birdy

Guest


I agree, KZ, that it's not the be all and end all; but I think you're underestimating the significance. The U20 world cup only started in 2008. Therefore, every AB older than 25 wouldn't have played in that comp. I think everywhere, including NZ, began focussing on the U20s much more when a World Cup became involved. I've read a number of posts and articles lamenting the 'death' of the Maoris side as they've been replaced as the main developmental vehicle by the U20s. Most of the 'freak team' you're talking about was actually 2011 not 2008. Although, in 2008 there was still Whitelock, Aaron Smith, Ryan Crotty and Zac Guildford. I think you'll struggle to find many current ABs 25 or younger who didn't come through the U20's - and certainly virtually all your best did (Savea, Smith, Cruden, Barrett, Retallick, Whitelock), not counting squad players like Cane, Piutau, Luatua etc. Your implication that 'it's down to steroids' is also a bit weak to say the least. England has one of the strictest testing regimes in the world on the back of their Olympics programme. It doesn't mean, of course, that no cases could happen; but the idea that there could be rampant steroid abuse is a bit churlish and smacks of excuses. Without having a dig, when NZ were dominating the U20s it was used as evidence by many Kiwi bloggers about the future domination of the ABs - and they were right. I don't understand why the opposite argument now results have changed isn't valid.

More Comments on The Roar

Read more at The Roar