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New Zealand 2015 Super Rugby preview Part II: Highlanders and Blues

Aaron Smith of the Highlanders. (Credit:SNPA / Ross Setford)
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Here is the second instalment of my preview of the New Zealand sides in the 2015 Super Rugby season. After looking at the Crusaders and Hurricanes yesterday, today will focus on the Blues and the Highlanders.

The Highlanders’ success last year came as quite a surprise. After a dreadful 2013 campaign and shedding many of their All Blacks, many suspected the Highlanders would spend time in the rugby wilderness as they looked to rebuild.

However, this young and inexperienced team exceeded all expectations and performed fairly well, making it to the quarter-finals before losing to a very good Sharks team in a fantastic contest.

The Highlanders have one notable off-season signing in Northland loose forward Dan Pryor. Anyone who watched the ITM Cup would know how much of a quality player Pryor is, certainly one for the future and a player to look out for in the coming year.

The Achilles heel for the Highlanders last year was their set piece. They were ranked 14th in competition for both their lineout and scrum success rate. Due to this, the Highlanders struggled to control territory and often had to rely on quick ball or turn over ball to utilise their back line.

The Highlanders coaching staff have bolstered their front row stocks in an attempt to address the issues at scrum time.

Props Pingi Tala’apitaga (BOP), Ross Geldenhuys (Tasman), Josh Hohneck (Waikato), Brendon Edmonds (Hawke’s Bay) and hooker Ash Dixon (Hawke’s Bay) have been added to the squad. Prop Josh Hohneck is probably the most notable of these, his team Waikato enjoying a 97 per cent success rate at scrum time.

Hopefully he will be able to continue this success at the Highlanders.

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The Highlanders have added two new inside backs to their squad with the inclusion of Tasman’s first five Marty Banks and Taranaki’s Waisake Naholo.

Banks will be hoping chalk up some game time after featuring only five times for the Hurricanes last season.

This may be a difficult task though as the Highlanders already have two first fives, first choice first five Lima Sopoaga had a stand out 2014 and Hayden Parker proved to be a very able replacement. Banks will have to fight hard to push his way into the twenty-three.

With no All Blacks in the forward pack, the Highlanders are going to have their work cut out for them. After a disappointing ITM Cup season for Canterbury, Nasi Manu will be looking to make the step up and lead from the front as the most senior forward.

Shane Christie, Joe Wheeler, and Kane Hames will have to continue on their good work. All these players registered over 150 tackles last season and will need to repeat that feat again if the Highlanders are to continue their success.

Lock positions are particularly thin. Joe Wheeler, and Mark Reddish are the only locks with real Super Rugby experience. Tom Franklin has one season of Super Rugby experience while the other two locks, Ainley and Latta, are both debutants, Latta with only one ITM season under his belt.

Like all of the New Zealand teams, the Highlanders have some serious talent in their backline. Halfback Aaron Smith will be leading the backline, while he is the best halfback in the world, he as at times been found wanting in defence. He will need to work on this, as teams will target him.

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As mentioned, the Highlanders have three very capable first fives in Sopoago, Parker, and Banks. A standout factor for Sopoago was his goal kicking, Marty Banks is also a very impressive goal kicker.

Teams will have to be cautious when infringing anywhere near the 50 metre line as the Highlanders will be able to punish them.

Shaun Treeby and Malakia Fekitoa will most likely be the centre pairing. Both of them are very good defensively and we all know what Fekitoa can do with ball in hand.

Both of these players staying injury free is key, while Jason Emery and Waisake Naholo are waiting in the wings; they lack the experience the other two possess.

The Highlanders back three are also quality. Ben Smith will be returning to full back and will be looking to cement his place at fullback for the All Blacks.

Terrific under the high ball and great in defence, Smith lets his rugby do the talking and will be an inspirational figure for this young Highlanders team.

Patrick Osborne and Richard Buckman will be on the wings. Both players had a hugely successful 2014, particularly Buckman, who proved to be a menace on attack and massive in defence. Both players have the potential to be future All Blacks.

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Kurt Baker is also a very capable winger. Whether or not he will feature in the Highlanders campaign very much depends on his Seven’s commitments.

While inexperienced, this Highlanders team has the potential to go far. It will very much depend on whether or not their set piece improves. If it does not, they could be looking at a very long and difficult year, if it does, they are serious contenders.

Also, like the Hurricanes, the Highlanders do not have the luxury of depth. If a few key players get injured, it would have serious implications.

The Highlanders have a very tough start to the season. They start with a bye then play the Crusaders (H), Reds (H), Chiefs (A), Waratahs (H), Hurricanes (H). There is the potential for the Highlanders to lose all six of these games.

They will need to have a very strong start if they are going to progress in the competition.

Potential Starting XV: 1. Hames 2. Dixon 3. Coltman 4. Wheeler 5. Reddish 6. Dixon 7. Christie 8. Manu 9. A.Smith 10. Sopoaga 11. Osborne 12. Treeby 13. Fekitoa 14. Buckman 15. B.Smith

The Highlanders are probably the third-best New Zealand team, behind the Crusaders and Chiefs. I think they certainly have the potential to make the playoffs again. However I don’t think they are yet capable of winning the big games.

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I predict they will just scrape into the quarter-finals but will be beaten.

This brings us to the Auckland Blues. For such a talented group of players, the Blues have been consistent underperformers for the past few years. Finishing 12th 10th and 10th over the past three years.

There performances, at times, have been so poor it would be fair to replace under performance with just poor performance.

Last year Benji Marshall was a surprise signing at the Blues but did more harm than good. The rugby league superstar failed at rugby union and the constant press surrounding Marshall had a noticeable effect on the team.

Once Marshall left the setup, I felt the Blues looked a far better team but it was too little too late by that stage.

The Blues had two big signings over the off-season. Highlanders lock Josh Bekhuis will bring some much-needed experience to the second row with his 81 Super caps, his signing is particularly important due to loss of Tom Donnelly.

Jimmy Cowan, after three years in the English Premiership, makes his return to Super Rugby. Cowan, perhaps surprisingly, had a good ITM Cup season for Tasman, the nippy halfback has lost none of his fight or ability.

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His hard-nosed attitude will be welcome in a team that has perhaps lost some of its passion and die hard attitude.

The other new comer is midfielder Hamish Northcott from Manawatu. Players like Callum Retallick and All Blacks under-20 loose forward Joe Edwards will be hoping to make an impact after spending much of their 2014 season injured.

All Blacks Seven’s star Ben Lam, who featured in the winning World Sevens team, will also be a welcome addition.

The corner stone of the Blues pack will surround their six All Blacks. Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock, Jerome Kaino, Charlie Faumuina, Patrick Tuipulotu, and Steven Luatua who boast 325 Test caps between them.

Kaino, as captain, will need to lead from the front. His return to super Rugby last year was impressive, particularly the match against the Waratahs.

Tuipulotu will be looking to continue his impressive form. His strong ball carrying was a feature last year and will be looked to as the Blues main ball carrier.

Luatua needs a good year, after a good 2013, he did himself no favours in 2014. He will need a good year to get into the All Black Rugby World Cup squad.

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The Blues lineout last year was decent but their scum will need some work, ranked third last for their scrum success. The all All Black front row should be one of the strongest in the competition and the Blues will need them to perform so they can unleash their potent backline.

The Blues will also be without star no. 7 Luke Braid. The long serving loose forward will be absent at the start of the season due to injury. His work ethic and leadership will be sorely missed.

While the Blues lack experience, they have a plethora of young talent. Impressive young halfbacks in All Black under-20 Byrn Hall and Maori All Blacks Jamison Gibson-Park have proven themselves able and with the addition of Jimmy Cowen, the halfback position is well covered.

First-Five has been real problem area for the Blues in recent years, particularly the goal kicking, which has been dreadful. Chris Noakes had been the incumbent Blues first-five but lacked the spark and goal kicking range to make much of an impact.

The signing of Ihaia West is a big step in the right direction. An electric young player, he possesses the spark to light up this Blues backline. He impressed in his brief stint with the Blues last season and has now been upgraded to a full contract.

Although quite small, he is no slouch in defence, tackling at 74 per cent in Super rugby and 75 per cent in the ITM cup.

Simon Hickey is the other option at 10. The All Black under-20 player did his best in a bad situation last year and I thought he was a very underrated and under-appreciated player.

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Ran his backline well, tackled and kicked very well. Although West may be flashy, don’t think Hickey is any less of a player.

Centre is an area of concern for the Blues now that Nonu has left. The squad only contains three midfield specialists, two of which have no super rugby experience. Francis Saili is the most experienced player of the three with 28 caps for the Blues.

Saili has the potential to be a very good player but poor grubbers and chip kicks have created a black mark next to his name. If he can get rid of these, he could find himself back in the All Blacks setup.

The other two players are Hamish Northcott and Matt Vaega, son of Samoan legend To’o Vaege. Both of these players have promising futures but it is yet to be seen how they will cope with Super Rugby.

It is most likely that either Moala or Ahki will partner with Saili. It is not ideal but it is the best option for now. Moala played well at 13 during his round 3 match against the Crusaders.

The Blues strongest area is the back three. George Moala, Ben Lam, Charles Piutau, Frank Halai, Lolagi Visinia, Peta Ahki, and Tevita Li have proven themselves to be very good players whether its for the All Blacks, Blues, All Blacks sevenss or the All Blacks under-20s.

Charles Piutau is the most notable name on the list. His 2014 season was plagued with injuries and he will be hoping to regain his 2013 form to push himself into contention for the All Black Rugby World Cup squad.

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Moala, Halai, Visinia, and Ahki all had a good 2014 season. Their attacking prowess was most notable during the back end of the season, particularly against the Reds and the Western Force.

Tevita Li had a break out season in 2014. His performance during the under-20 world cup was outstanding. Although only playing eight games in 2014, he scored three tires, 32 carries for 259 metres, 13 tackles busts, and six line breaks. A very promising player.

A continuing theme has been a lack of depth and the Blues are no different. Their forward and midfield stocks are particularly low. Should injuries occur, players will most likely be forced to play out of position.

Like the Highlanders, the Blues have a tough start to the season. Starting with the Chiefs, they then embark on a tour of South Africa before returning home.

Chiefs (H), Stormers (A), Cheetahs (A), Lions (H), Hurricanes (?), Bye, Waratahs (A).
(The venue for the Hurricanes match is undecided).

The Blues were notoriously bad away from home last year. If they are any hope of success they need to start winning away. The Lions and Cheetahs are probably the only games where I would be remotely confident of a Blues victory.

Potential starting XV: 1. Woodcock 2. Mealamu 3. Faumuina 4. Tuipulotu
5. Bekhuis 6. Luatua 7. O’Connor 8. Kaino 9. Cowen 10. West 11. Li 12. Saili 13. Moala 14. Halai 15. Piutau

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My prediction for the Blues is that they will improve from last year, but still finish between 10th and eighth of the table.

On paper they have a far better team than the Highlanders do, but I don’t think they have the right set up or team culture to do as well. The best thing that could happen to the Blues is if they got someone like Michael Cheika to hold the clipboard. (I would of liked to go into depth on my perceived failings of Sir John Kirwan as a coach, but I think that’s a different article completely).

Thanks for reading. I will conclude the previews with the Chiefs in the next instalment.

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