The Super Bowl is nearing closer but there are still two championship games to be played out before we know the identity of the finalists.
Green Bay Packers will tackle the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in the NFC Championship before the New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts.
Let’s take a look at both games and what we can expect.
NFC Championship – Green Bay @ Seattle
The NFC Championship game will see the best offence in football tackle the best defence.
Seattle are the reigning SuperBowl champions and are riding a seven-game winning streak. Over this time, they have conceded eight points per game and just four total touchdowns. The Legion of Boom is alive and well, led by the league’s best cornerback Richard Sherman. The Seahawks lead the league in opponent passing yards conceded per game (185.6), total yards conceded per game (272.7) and rank third in opponent rushing yards per game (81.5).
Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson had an outstanding game in last weekend’s divisional playoff against Carolina, throwing 15 of 22 for 268 yards with three touchdowns. While Wilson was quiet on the rushing front, he led the league in yards per rushing attempt with 7.0 per rush. Rushing is Seattle’s staple diet as they led the league in rushing yards per game with 172.6.
Riding shotgun with Wilson in Seattle’s proficient running game is Marshawn Lynch, who ranks third in total rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns. Despite struggling against Carolina last week with just 59 rushing yards, Lynch thrives on the playoff stage and scored in each of the Seahawks’ three playoff games last season. Add that to the fact that the Packers rank 23rd in rushing defence and the Seahawks have every reason to enter this game full of confidence.
Wilson doesn’t throw too often, ranking last in the league in passing attempts and 23rd in passing yards per game. Green Bay ranks ninth in passing yards conceded per game, but on the off chance that Wilson does throw he will look to Doug Baldwin and Luke Willson. Willson comes into the game in good form, having caught a touchdown against Carolina following on from a monster 139-yard, two-touchdown game against Arizona in Week 16.
With a 17-2 record at home over the last two years, the Seahawks will be confident that the cauldron-like atmosphere of CenturyLink Field will create an uncomfortable environment for Aaron Rodgers and company.
On Rodgers, the man has a legitimate claim to be MVP. Despite playing with a strained calf, he completed 24 of-35 passes for 316 yards with three touchdowns including an eight-play, 80-yard game-winning drive against Dallas last weekend. Leading a team that has scored a league-leading 30.1 points per game while gaining 8.4 yards per pass, he ranks in the top 10 for total yards and completion percentage while throwing 41 touchdowns and just five intercepts.
This was Rodgers’ sixth consecutive season with a passer rating of at least 100, making him the first man in history to achieve this feat.
His primary target will be Jordy Nelson, who ranked fourth in receiving yards and tallied 13 touchdowns on 15.5 yards per reception. Nelson has passed 100 receiving yards nine times and scored in 10 games this season, and has a reliable wide receiver partner in Randall Cobb. Cobb has been only slightly less impressive than Nelson this season, scoring 12 touchdowns and ranking ninth in receiving yards.
Should Rodgers’ passing game struggle, Green Bay will turn to running back Eddie Lacy, who is among the league’s most consistent rushers, ranking seventh in rushing yards and fourth in rushing touchdowns. Lacy has passed 100 total yards in his last 10 games and has at least one touchdown in eight of those games.
Dallas are the only team to win in Seattle this season, doing so on the back of 162 total rushing yards and scoring 30 points which remains a season-high against the Seahawks. The Packers are going to need to exceed 30 points to win this game, and as good as the soon to be two-time MVP Rodgers is their best chance to win this game and return to the SuperBowl might be by rushing.
Prediction: Green Bay 31 Seattle 24
AFC Championship – Indianapolis @ New England
Is Andrew Luck ready to take the next step or will Tom Brady rally the troops yet again? The AFC Championship game sees the NFL’s brightest young quarterback seemingly ready to take the torch from the legendary Brady, whose performance in rallying the Patriots from a 14-point deficit on two occasions against the Baltimore Ravens last weekend was remarkable.
Luck led the league in passing yards and touchdowns (43) but is coming off one of his less impressive games in the AFC divisional playoff against Denver, throwing 27 of 43 passes for 265 yards with two touchdowns and two intercepts. Luck’s brilliance is countered by the fact he has thrown a league-leading 18 intercepts and his career record against New England has seen him throw eight touchdowns while being sacked 10 times.
The Colts’ offensive line played a fantastic game against the Broncos, protecting Luck so well that he wasn’t sacked once. Replicating that against the Patriots’ ninth ranked rushing defence won’t be simple, but if Luck is afforded time and space he will be confident of racking up a winning score. Luck led the league in completions of 20-plus yards with 85 and will enter this game confident against a Patriots team that conceded four touchdowns last weekend.
Wide receiver TY Hilton has caught 10 passes for 175 yards in the last two games and ranked 11th in receptions and fifth in receiving yards this season. Having a touchdown or 100 receiving yards in seven of his last 12 games, Hilton will be keen to make sure he doesn’t repeat his performance against New England in Week 11 when he caught only three passes for 24 total yards.
The loss of Ahmad Bradshaw to injury impacted the Colts’ running game, but Daniel Herron has proven to be effective during the first two weeks of the playoffs, scoring a touchdown in each game among 236 total yards, despite being reasonably inefficient with just 3.4 yards gained per rush. The Patriots rank 10th in rush yards allowed per game and allowed Justin Forsett to rush for 129 yards last weekend, but we may see any rushing from Herron as a small victory as it will mean Luck is not throwing.
Brady polarises opinion, with many detractors pointing towards his five Super Bowl losses rather than his three titles. He will be gunning for his ninth Super Bowl birth in 15 seasons, an incredible record for a man who last weekend broke the NFL’s record for post-season touchdowns.
Ranking ninth in passing yards, 12th in completion percentage, sixth in completions and fifth in touchdowns thrown this season, Brady has thrown slightly less yards per pass attempt than his career average (7.06 to 7.43).
Last weekend, the Patriots abandoned their rushing game when they fell behind, not rushing once from the middle of the second quarter as they let Brady take control.
Brady rushed for his first touchdown of the season before finding Danny Amendola and then Rob Gronkowski in the end zone. Gronk is the league’s best tight-end, having scored 13 touchdowns while leading tight ends in receiving yards. Having missed the playoffs in the last two seasons due to injury, Gronkowski will be confident of making an impact against a Colts team that has allowed 916 yards and 10 touchdowns to opposing tight-ends (fourth worst and fifth worst in the league respectively).
The Colts allow 4.3 yards per rush, ranking them 25th in the league and it will be intriguing to see whether Bill Belichick looks to expose this weakness or allow Brady to dictate from the start.
This game is primed to be a shootout and far closer than the market suggests, which has New England as 6.0 point favourites. Luck’s career playoff arrow remains on the up as he has progressed to the first, second and third week of the playoffs over his first three years. 2016 might be his year, but for now Brady and company will find a way to win.
Prediction: New England 34 Indianapolis 31 (italics)
Distant Knight
Guest
Montana playing and winning all 4 of his Super Bowls is going to a hard record to beat. You've got to be good early and sustain it, plus have a great team / franchise around you, and plenty of luck. It might be one of the few QB records that is harder to beat now in the passing era, mainly due to the newer cap / roster rules. If he hadn't been run over by Leonard Marshall in the 1990 NFC championship game, he would have definitely had at least 1 more SB, probably more.
Ilikedahoodoogurusingha
Guest
Green Bay/Seattle could go either way. My pick is either a close win to my Seahawks or a complete blow out like last years Super Bowl, when again it was the best offence against the best defence. How Rodgers calf holds up is the key.....if he manages it well, close game, if not, expect a couple of pick sixes.
Steve
Guest
Looking forward to both games an expect two very entertaining matches. I'll take the pats at home and think they'll end up doing it quite comfortably. Key to this one in my opinion is the pats running game. If Blount, Vereen and co get rolling early and the colts need to commit heavily to stopping it (see regular season game between these two as an example) they'll get torn up by the pats slant and seam routes in the passing game. Two things Denver did not have last week - a run game and a medium/deep passing game should make all the difference here (Patriots 31-14). In the NFC I'm taking the hawks...they're tough at home and a less than 100% Rodgers makes this extra difficult. Think this will be the closer, lower scoring and more defence focused of the games but Lynch vs the pack front 7 and Rodgers against the LOB make this a fascinating match-up (Seahawks 24-17).
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Thanks for the comments mate, I might be judging Luck a bit harshly given the high bar he has set himself! Both games shape as being closer than the market suggests for mine
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
The storyline this weekend are just so intriguing. You have the league's best QB leading the best offense into a defensive cauldron and the master taking on the apprentice! Makes for a top quality weekend of action and should result in a SuerBowl between two red-hot teams
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Brady is tied with John Elway with most SB appearances at 5. Joe Cool played and won all four. No doubt Brady is one of the all time greats. Thanks for the piece Steven, I actually thought Luck played very well last week despite the two picks. Should be a very interesting weekend of games. Not many are tipping the Pack !
Punter
Guest
No dramas mate. Yeah I think you are right, this SB is important for his legacy. There has always been an argument that he has done more with less (although finally with Gronk he has a the best TE in the game and Edelman, Dola and LaFell give him three genuine WR's). The standard of QB is so high at the moment that you could argue anyone of the four remaining (plus Manning and Romo) are the best in the leauge, although I agree with you that Rodgers is the #1 right now. Still, I don't think Belichick would give up Brady for anyone on the planet, especially if he needs a game winning drive in the 4th quarter on Mon.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Thanks for picking up the error Punter, I had misread Brady's AFC Championship numbers as being losing SuperBowl apperances. When correcting that stat, the part about him polarising opinions carries less weight. I think most would agree that if he leads the Patriots to another title at age 38 then he sits very comfortably near the top on the all-time QB rankings.
Punter
Guest
Well written Steven, it is great to see the NFL getting some solid coverage. You just might want to check Brady's stats - he has lost two Super Bowls not five and he is aiming for his sixth SB appearance not ninth (his 5 appearance to date are tied with Montana as the most by a QB). I am not sure if he polarises opinion even his biggest detractors (Colts and Bronco fans) generally agree he is one of the best QB's of all time.