Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will be hunting for their first AFC Championship since 2011 when they host the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium at 10:40am (AEDT) on Monday morning. Join The Roar for live scores, coverage and debate in our live blog.
Not all that long ago, Indianapolis versus New England meant Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady, and ironically, another chance to see that marquee quarterback match-up was spoilt last week in Denver when Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts beat Manning’s Broncos, booking their spot in the AFC Championship, a daunting trip to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Perhaps this is a look at the future of the AFC – Luck and the Colts – against a dynasty – Brady and the Patriots – that’s ruled the conference, and some might say, football over the last decade and a half.
There’s no doubt that Brady is moving into the twilight of his career, though his on-field performance belies that fact, and Luck is a young quarterback, still learning what it takes to be an NFL quarterback.
So, the present and the future collide Sunday evening in Boston, and the winner will earn the right to face the NFC’s best, Seattle or Green Bay, for the biggest prize in American sport, the Lombardi Trophy. It will be the third time the Pats and Colts have met for the AFC championship, with New England winning the first contest (in 2003) and Indianapolis the second (2006), and in what is perhaps a wonderful omen, the winners of those two games also went on to win the Super Bowl.
Alas, with good omens come bad ones, and there has been plenty of talk about the recent run of success the Patriots have had against the Colts. Indeed, Luck is 0-3 all-time against the Patriots, and the games haven’t been particularly close.
The last two meetings? 43-22 New England in last year’s playoffs, and a 42-20 win in Indianapolis this past November. In three games, the Patriots have outscored the Colts 144-66.
Doubtless the Colts will have studied game tape from the last few meetings – and if so, will have noticed that New England achieved great success running the football, thus keeping it out of the hands of Luck’s prolific and explosive offence.
LeGarrette Blount had four touchdowns among 166 yards in the playoff win versus Indy last year, and in November, the little-talked-about Jonas Gray had four scores and 201 yards. There is a clear pattern and obviously, as the numbers would suggest, Indianapolis’ defence had trouble stopping the run.
New England are stacked at running back. Gray was inactive last week as the Pats twice erased 14-point deficits to score a narrow 35-31 victory over Baltimore. In that game, Brandon Boldin started, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Gray make a surprise appearance, given how well he performed against the Colts last time.
The real key to beating New England though, is containing Tom Brady. Easier said than done, of course, but give the quarterback even a modicum of time in the pocket, he’s going to make a play. More often than not, it’ll be a big one – and probably to hulking tight end Rob Gronkowski. Or speedy receivers Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola.
Indy’s defence is going to have a hard time of it. While Brady probably doesn’t have as many weapons as in previous years, he’s still got enough guys with sure hands who can make plays when it counts. They are depleted in the secondary, with both cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Greg Toler not practicing with teammates during the week. The two did a wonderful job of shutting down the Peyton Manning aerial attack in Denver, which led to a 24-13 win over the Broncos. Once again this week, Davis and Toler need to be on their game.
As do the New England defenders, who must look to take Luck’s favourite target TY Hilton out of the game. You can imagine that shutdown corner Darrelle Revis will see a lot of time lined up opposite Indy’s star receiver. Why? Well, other than that Revis is a gun, he saw success against Hilton in the November game, limiting the Indy receiver to just three catches for 24 yards. If Revis can in any way replicate that performance on Sunday, New England should win.
Last week saw the Colts run Dan Herron more times than he’s ever run it before (23 attempts for 63 yards and a touchdown), and they may need to do that again if Hilton and Luck’s other targets get shut down. Indy will start a group of healthy offensive linemen – the same combination for the third straight week – which will be a giant help for the ground game, particularly if the Colts are forced to rely on it. Crucially, Herron’s never carried the football against a Patriot defence.
Luck needs to hold onto the football. An obvious thing to say, I know, but also a key. He played well last week in Denver, though he did throw two interceptions. That’s the sort of thing that’ll kill you against Brady and co. Give Tom a short field, and he’ll make you pay. In three games against New England, Luck has six touchdowns and eight interceptions with a 53.8 completion percentage. In the playoffs, that won’t be enough. Nor will a Passer Rating of 67.7. Luck needs to play out of his skin on Sunday to give the Colts a shot in what will definitely be a hostile environment.
Prediction: I’d like to think the Colts have a shot here, but I’d like their chances far more if the game was at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, rather than up in Boston. It’s really hard to go past the combination of Brady and Belicheck. They’ve had so much success in the playoffs, and I think they’ll advance to their first Super Bowl since 2012 with a fairly comfortable victory in front of their home fans. Pats by about fourteen points.
Join The Roar for live coverage of the AFC Championship Game on Monday morning from 10.30am AEDT.
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Amazing stat, isn't it? What longevity. The Super Bowl will be contested between the last two New England Coaches. Belichick, if you remember, replaced Pete Carroll.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Very impressive by the Pats. Thought the Colts were going to push them in this one. Agree with you Andrew, the Colts with Luck will be in the mix for years to come. The Pats going to there 6th Big Dance under Belicheck and Brady / 8th overall.
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
The way Edelman went today, he'd want to be!
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
New England are AFC Champions - 45-7 over Indianapolis. Thanks for reading, everyone! See you for the Super Bowl in two weeks' time!
Mark Pybus
Roar Guru
Nice win by the Pats. Going to be an interesting couple of weeks to see if Sherman will be right to suit up.
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
The Super Bowl featuring the two #1 seeds. Doesn't get much better!
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Little not to like if you're a Patriots fan.
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
ALL OVER!! New England win the AFC, defeating Indianapolis 45-7. Ominous performance!
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Despite this loss, it's been a good season for Indy. In three years with Luck, they've made the playoffs each time, wildcard, then divisional round and now AFC Championship. Good things ahead for the Colts, I think.
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Sad if this is the last game for Reggie Wayne, what a warrior!!
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
I give them a good shot!
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Seattle vs. New England is going to be a great game! New England return to the scene of where their undefeated season ended in 2008 vs my Giants.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Good to see ex ND player Jonas Gray get a run ! Does anyone give the Pats a chance against the Seahawks ?
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Starch has gone way out of this one!
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
And...as I type that, Brady takes a seat. Job well done!
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Imagine if he's injured in the final 3:00 or so.
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
I don't get why Brady is still playing.
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Jamie Collins stones Herron. Big game from JC, too.
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Late hit on Brady! GET HIM OUT!!
Andrew Kitchener
Roar Guru
Brady/Belichick heading to their sixth Super Bowl! Amazing!!