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Tour Down Under race director Mike Turtur would have put his house on Cadel Evans successfully protecting the race lead a year ago at Willunga Hill.
Evans’ narrow miss there again showed he can win the tour and deserves to be among the favourites for the 17th edition of the Adelaide race starting on Tuesday.
But it also highlighted how tricky it can be to take out the six-stage WorldTour opener.
And this is the last chance for 37-year-old Evans, with the 2011 Tour de France champion retiring from racing on February 1.
Evans had a seven-second lead over compatriot Simon Gerrans heading into last year’s Queen Stage at Willunga.
But he finished sixth behind Gerrans, who was third for the stage and took the lead by just one second.
The next day, Gerrans became the Tour’s first three-time champion.
The overall lead has changed hands at Willunga every year since it became a hilltop finish in 2012.
Even more importantly, the rider who takes the lead at Willunga, the second-last stage, wins the overall title.
But now there’s an added complication – a short but brutally-steep finish to the third stage at Paracombe in the Adelaide Hills.
There is speculation that this new finish could be even more decisive than Willunga.
Evans and fellow Australians Richie Porte and Michael Rogers are the overall favourites this time, with Gerrans training in Europe as he recovers from a broken collarbone.
“I’m good – I don’t know if I will be the best guy uphill here though,” Evans said.
“I’m about the same (condition), hopefully (as last year) – we’ll see when we have a couple of days of hard racing and what the weather is going to do.
“And of course, the level of everyone else – every year it seems more and more riders come here well-prepared.
“Even if I was as good as I was last year, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be good enough to get the result or fight for the win like last year.”
Evans has a strong history with this race, winning the young rider category when it started in 1999.
While he has never won the overall title, he gave the Tour one of its greatest moments in 2010, again at Willunga.
Wearing the world champion’s jersey, Evans was part of a spectacular four-rider duel up the famous climb.
“It still remains for me, of all the stage races in the world, one of the most enjoyable … because of Adelaide, the surrounds, and the enthusiasm of the crowd,” he said.
“Maybe because I’m Australian or not, I don’t know, but it’s certainly a unique environment.”
The race
* 812.3km, first race of the WorldTour calendar
* 19 teams of seven riders each
Stage One, January 20
Tanunda to Campbelltown, 132.6km
Big climb at Checker Hill, but it’s more than 20km from the finish. Most likely one for the sprinters
Stage Two, January 21
Unley to Stirling, 150.5km
Overall hopefuls have to be watchful on the Stirling circuit in the Adelaide Hills, but it’s unlikely to be a decisive day
Stage Three, January 22
Norwood to Paracombe, 143.2km
The Paracombe finish in the Adelaide Hills is new to the race and it’s a short, brutal 600m climb that will cause trouble. A big stage for the contenders
Stage Four, January 23
Glenelg to Mt Barker, 144.5km
Plenty of climbs in this route, which goes south before working up through the Hills.
Stage Five, January 24
McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill
The Queen Stage, featuring two climbs of Old Willunga Hill Rd and a summit finish. The Tour winner will be confirmed here
Stage Six, January 25
Adelaide Street Race, 90km
Sprinter’s paradise. The race leader’s team will make sure his overall advantage is protected.
The riders
* Cadel Evans (Aus, BMC) – his last WorldTour race before the 2011 Tour de France champion retires on February 1. One of the race favourites
* Richie Porte (Aus, Sky) – Showed he’s back to form with the time trial national championship last week. Won on Willunga stage last year and would love to win overall
* Michael Rogers (Aus, Tinkoff-Saxo) – Won three Grand Tour stages last year after being cleared of a positive drugs test. Big chance to continue his strong form this week
* Marcel Kittel (Ger, Gian-Alpecin) – Won the People’s Choice Classic on Sunday night. Sprint ace who’s won eight Tour de France stages
* Heinrich Haussler (Aus, IAM Cycling) – Newly-crowned Australian road champion. Welcome return to form after several lean years.
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