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With just 15 seconds separating first from tenth in the general classification, the Queen Stage of the 2015 Tour Down Under will once again be assuming its role as kingmaker.
After letting overall victory slip through their fingers in 2014, will BMC Racing taste success in 2015?
Beginning in McLaren Vale for another year, Stage 5 of the 2015 Tour Down Under retraces the same parcours ridden in 2012, 2013 and 2014.
Similarly, the wind could once again play a role in the stage with current weather forecasts predicting west-north-westerly winds between 19 and 26 kilometres per hour.
Before climbing Willunga Hill the peloton must first complete three laps of a circuit that begins in McLaren Vale, heads south towards Willunga township, then turns westwards towards the coast and passes through Aldinga Beach, Snapper Point and Port Willunga, then back inland in McLaren Vale. During this stretch along the South Australian coastline the peloton will be most exposed to the threat of crosswinds.
Afterwards the peloton will begin the first ascent of Willunga Hill and subsequently follow a circuit which will bring them back around to Willunga township for the second and final ascent up Willunga Hill. Once again, the second ascent should be the where the winners and losers of the stage and overall race are decided.
Measuring three kilometres in length, Willunga Hill features an average gradient of 7 per cent and a maximum gradient of 11.9 per cent. Arguably at its hardest during the first half of the climb, easing in difficulty during the final 300 metres thanks to the majority of the slope being under 5 per cent in gradient.
Last year the climb up Willunga Hill was influenced by a headwind buffeting the riders, making it difficult to attack out of a group and establish a gap. This year the riders could be looking at a wind-assisted ascent due to predicted west-north-westerly winds, which could result in a cross-tail or tailwind around 24 kilometres per hour or higher.
Although last year’s stage was won by a daring solo attack from Team Sky’s Richie Porte, the prevailing trend since the race added the summit finish on Willunga Hill is for two riders to contest the stage victory in a sprint finish. So with the final 150 metres flattening out even further, it will be important to be the first rider around the left-hand bend that arrives with just 50 metres to go.
After winning last year’s stage by a margin of 10 seconds, Richie Porte will be the crowd favourite for today’s stage in the absence of Simon Gerrans. However, the Team Sky rider has a difficult task ahead of him as he seeks to claw back the 16 seconds needed to ensure securing the leader’s jersey from Rohan Dennis.
Speaking of the current ochre jersey wearer, BMC Racing will be in a predicament heading in to Stage 5 after seeing their plan to win the race with Cadel Evans complicated by Dennis’ victory on Stage 3. My feelings are that BMC should push aside any sentimentalities for Evans and fully support whoever the strongest rider is on the day. Regardless of what happens, BMC should have several different tactical options available to them come the climb.
The dark horse for the stage victory appears to be Giant–Alpecin’s Dutchman Tom Dumoulin, who will be looking to claw back 10 seconds to take the ochre jersey heading in to the final stage. After showing he could deal with the steep, irregular gradients of Torrens Hill Road, Dumoulin could find the longer but gentler climb of Willunga Hill more suited to his time trial speciality.
While Daryl Impey seems a long shot for the overall victory in spite of the bonus seconds that will be in play during the stage, there are five other riders level on time with Porte who could steal the spotlight if given too much freedom. It will be important for the overall race favourites to keep an eye on the quartet of Jack Haig, Maxime Bouet, Ruben Fernandez and Domenico Pozzovivo.
Based on Thursday’s third stage to Paracombe featuring the climb up Torrens Hill Road, Etixx–Quick Step’s Maxime Bouet would appear to be the greatest threat to those above him in the GC.
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