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History is a powerful ally at the Tour Down Under, and today it’s firmly on Rohan Dennis’ side. The South Australian is poised to become the latest winner of the World Tour’s opening race of the season, and the third from South Australia.
The only man who can beat Dennis is just two seconds behind, but really the time gap doesn’t matter because the history books say that BMC’s new signing will be still be in the Ochre Leader’s jersey at around 3:30 Adelaide time this afternoon.
Richie Porte may try and target the intermediate sprints, but BMC have two reasons to also target them.
Firstly, it’ll stop Porte getting the time bonuses and shore up Dennis’ lead.
Secondly, Cadel Evans is only two points behind Darryl Impey at the top of the Sprint Classification. If he wants to target that competition then there are opportunities at the end of laps eight and 12 of this 20-lap race.
Of course, Orica-GreenEDGE will be trying to set up or save Impey, so they can rescue something from what’s been a lean week for the team. There’s also every chance a break will get up the road and contest the sprints.
So however you look at it, Porte is going to struggle for opportunities to win an intermediate sprint, but if he did engineer a chance but just happened to have Dennis on his wheel, how do you reckon he’d go?
Personally, I’d pick Rohan in a two-up sprint.
As I wrote a few days ago, the Tour Down Under is littered with races decided by tiny margins. A count-back in 2012 and 2003, one second last year, two seconds in 2011 and 2001 and three seconds in 2007.
Only once has a lead been overturned, in 2001 when Stuart O’Grady went into the final stage trailing on countback to Kai Hundertmark. The South Australian, who was then sprinting at his prime, placed second in an intermediate sprint to snare his second win by two seconds.
A win in an intermediate sprint will give Porte the time he needs but he can’t be too disappointed if Dennis wins the Tour. Porte’s kick to get away from the pretenders on the final climb, his second kick to shake off Cadel, and then a final acceleration to drop Dennis was simply epic.
Four kilos lighter than last year, Porte has shown enough good form this year already. It’s only January and he has serious ambitions for May and July. So to be in peak form now isn’t a priority. And to have those gears in his engine will give Porte great confidence.
As things stand, Porte is very thin for this time of the year; some think he’s too thin. In a long season, you’re bound to lose more weight, but Porte doesn’t look like he has much to lose. Losing an Ochre jersey battle is something he can afford to do.
It’s also something Evans has to do as well. The fairytale finish so many people wanted for him won’t happen. Likewise, Cadel can’t be too unhappy with his week. His team put him in all the right moves at the right time despite being a man down for the past three days. Cadel just hasn’t been able to respond to attacks from riders considerably younger than him.
You could question whether he and Dennis should’ve followed the four Astana riders on the run-in to Willunga, but as the saying goes, you have to speculate to accumulate. The risk was worth taking but it’s undeniable Evans used some valuable energy in those few minutes that would’ve helped him when Porte attacked in the final two kilometres.
Looking at the way Porte accelerated on that hill heaving with spectators, it’s doubtful anyone could’ve gone with him.
Cadel will finish on the podium in his World Tour finale, which while not as good as last year – when he was second by one second to Simon Gerrans – is still a great performance by a 38 year-old (well almost) in a race of this quality.
He’s bowing out at the right time.
Dennis, on other hand, he won’t be bowing out anytime soon. We might be talking about a soon to be Tour Down Under champion but in a couple of weeks we could be talking about the new World Hour record holder.
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