After a storming finish to the season regular, Richmond were bundled straight out of the finals. Can they finally start to make good on two seasons of unfulfilled promise?
1. Stopping the opposition run
After two straight finals appearances, the next step for Richmond is focusing on a finals win.
What has hurt Richmond in their elimination finals is an inability to stop opposition runs. In 2013 a second-half surge by Carlton and in 2014 a fast start by Port Adelaide has meant Richmond’s season ended in disappointing fashion.
Defensively Richmond have a strong team defence ethos led by leaders Alex Rance and Troy Chaplin. Still the team defence has struggled under severe pressure. Whether this team defence can hold up to intense finals pressure or whether the improvement needs to come from improved workrate from the midfield in that finals pressure environment, either way, Richmond need to halt those runs against the best teams in crunch times.
2. Forward potency
The other area of the field that Richmond appears to be a step below other wannabe premiership contenders is in their ability to hit the scoreboard. Jack Riewoldt continues to be one of the best key forwards in the game, but for all their searching and attempts to develop, Richmond have been unable to develop the necessary complimentary pieces alongside him.
Ty Vickery took steps forward last year but still lacks the consistency needed and Shane Edwards has taken moved towards being a consistent small forward but overall the team needs structure up forward to really contend at the end of the year.
Keep an eye on the Richmond forward line early this year to see if one or two of the Richmond additions and improved players of the past couple of years can finally give them the forward potency they need.
3. Run lost, run gained
Matt White was one of the recruits of the season, and in a game where speed kills, Port Adelaide were able to harness White’s running power to great effect. Almost by recognition after the loss, Richmond made Taylor Hunt a priority in their recruiting period and were able to land the former Geelong running machine.
While Hunt struggled for consistency at times in a strong Geelong side, a year after the fact, Richmond may have found a replacement for what ended up being a crucial loss in White. Hunt helps add some needed run to the Richmond midfield.
4. 600 Club
Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio have only done it once, Dustin Martin has never done it, and Brandon Ellis did it in 2014: 600 possessions in a season.
In a team where Martin, Cotchin and Deledio are the first named midfielders, Ellis has quickly established himself as the equal of this key Tiger trio. Ellis saw a huge jump in production in year three as an AFL footballer, improving his output in disposals, tackles, rebounds, clearances and running bounces. These areas are all key for Ellis as an inside-out midfielder who has so far been able to perform with opposition attention on his midfield mates.
After a breakout 2014 season, other clubs recognising Ellis’ input to Richmond success means he could face stiffer opposition attention in 2015. Either way, Ellis now belongs in the Cotchin, Martin, Deledio discussion.
5. Unlikely MVP, random number
Richmond’s late surge to finals was highlighted by the return from injury and to form of key trio Brett Deledio, Alex Rance and Ivan Maric. Statistically though, the most notable change over the final part of the season was Maric’s numbers.
After playing in four losses and failing to get to 25 hit outs between Round 11 and 14, Maric’s match fitness and importance was highlighted as he had 25 hit outs in eight of the next nine matches, with Richmond winning all of those games.
Maric’s importance was again highlighted in the elimination final loss, where Port Adelaide held the Tiger number one ruck to just 20 hit outs.
Going into 2015, opposition clubs should be targeting Maric and his ruck work as the key if you want to stop Richmond.
6. Premiership season historical chase
Despite last season’s elimination final loss ending Richmond’s fifth equal largest winning run of nine games, they still have the ability to create a sense of history by beating the club’s greatest ever winning-run in premiership-season matches.
Currently the Richmond home-and-away win streak stands at 12, split over 1972-73. Like 2014 Richmond rattled off nine wins to end the 1972 season, though that year those nine wins took them to a top-two finish and ultimately a grand final berth. That year they lost in both the second semi-final and grand final to Carlton, but rebounded early in 1973 with another three wins before the streak was snuffed in Round 4.
For Richmond to create history they will need one better than 1973 and register four wins to start 2015. These four are winnable games against Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane and Melbourne.
It would make for a great start to a blockbuster Anzac weekend if the record was on the line for Richmond come April 24 on a Friday night at the G.
7. Hardwick’s historical chase
Remarkably if Damien Hardwick makes it through to Round 17 of the 2015 season he will rise to third place in games coached history for Richmond. From there Hardwick will trail only the legendary Tiger duo of Tom Hafey and Jack Dyer.
Despite the general consensus, Richmond have been incredibly patient with their senior coaches since the turn of the millennium, with Danny Frawley getting five years yet winning only 40 per cent of games, Terry Wallace getting five years yet winning only 38 per cent of games and now Hardwick getting five years for a 46 per cent winning record.
Hardwick is going into unchartered territory as a Richmond coach, but he seems to have made some rope with consecutive finals berths.
Gecko
Guest
Maric to the Tiges is like Mumford is to GWS. The Tiger midfield just desperately needs Maric's physicality. Physicality doesn't show up so well in the stats but it's important psychologically and just for clearing space. Cam, I agree the Tigers with Maric are completely different to the Tigers without Maric. You're also right that, "Richmond have a strong team defence ethos." Problem is they've got too many unskilled players back there. Geelong a few years back and Hawthorn more recently have shown how important skilled rebounding is in modern footy and Richmond really struggles in this aspect. When Deledio moves up the ground, it leaves them relying on a panicky Houli to be their main rebounder. I think Martin needs to spend more time across half back in 2015 just to help out Deledio.
Me Too
Guest
my prediction - hardwick will be the first coach we say goodbye to in 2015.
Macca
Guest
Don saying something isn't supporting it. On Judd, Thomas & Kreuzer - You say Judd "should not be expected to win a premiership single-handedly any longer" True but given he has had his first surgery free pre-season in 5 years and was restricted to just 12 games in 2014 how is it wrong to suggest he will be of more benefit to the blues this year than last? You say Thomas "is content with his early superannuation payout. Don’t think he’ll be trying too hard any more. A bit of Colin Sylvia about him." Given Sylvia has just been sent down to the WAFL for presenting in an unfit manner and Thomas has been accused by his coach of training too hard this pre-season I don't know where the comparison is but given Thomas got better as the year wnet last year as he got more fitness (remember that 29 possession 12 mark game against Freo) and he has had no off season surgery and a full pre-season how is it wrong to say he will be of more benefit to the Blues than last year. On Kreuzer he is currently completing his first full pre-season since he has been at the club and played just 1 game last year how is it wrong to say he will be of more benefit to the blues in 2015 than 2014? Remember you are arguing the blues will go significantly backwards so you have to argue that these players being in better shape (along with the many others who didn't have off season surgery of missed significant chunks of 2014) fully fit will actually result in a worse result in 2015. This is your final chance (and an overlooked late edit to you comment is the only reason you are getting this one) so try not to blow it with your usual inanity!
Don Freo
Guest
You're right. They don't enjoy them half as much. They enjoy them TWICE as much. I do support my points above BTW. Judd, Kreuzer,Thomas... Carlton are not very good. See, lots of reasons.
Macca
Guest
OK Don you've had enough chances to actually support your argument but alas it seems beyond you - have a nice 2015 and try to remember that no one else enjoys your posts half as much as you do.
Don Freo
Guest
You don't contest, 'the saddest'? Well...acceptance at last. You will taste joy again; after a 6 year rebuilding programme...begun after this year's bottom two finish.
Macca
Guest
Neil - Yes those players back will help the Tigers and their young players do have another pre-season as well but I would argue that the blues have more improvement in that area given the likes of Thomas and Henderson had significantly limited pre-seasons (amongst others), and the Blues were missing 4 significant players as opposed to the Tigers 3 but even if we say that both lists have the same level of improvement from last year to this we are left with the tigers winning a game in which with just seconds to go they lead by 1 goal - that doesn't indicate to me that Tigers fans would expect to win the game well.
Macca
Guest
Ye don 7th oldest is older than 9th oldest, I never said it wasn't, but and average of 3 months older is hardly significant, and if it is an issue for the blues your blokes are in massive trouble. Again you make a assertion (the blues have close to the weakest list) but make no effort to explain how you arrive at that assertion - this is the third time I have asked for evidence to support your theory if you refuse yet again I will assume 2015 is no different to 2014 and you have no interest in an actual discussion. For my part I will assert that the blues had 7 1/2 wins (including a win against prelim finalist North) last year plus narrow losses to many sides including top 4 sides (at the end of the regular season at any rate) Freo & Geelong (twice), I contend that the blues are capable of getting a much better result this year due to the likes of Judd & Kreuzer being fully fit and looking at playing significantly more games than 2014 and the likes of Thomas and Henderson having injury free pre-seasons and likely to have a bigger impact than 2014 plus the natural improvement from the likes of Casboult, Buckely & Menzel - if you wish to counter any of these arguments feel free, otherwise have a good 2015.
Neil from Warrandyte
Guest
Macca you rightly point out that the blues are getting some players back that didn't play the tigers last year and that their young guns have another preseason under their belts, however you are wrong to say that the tigers will be largely unchanged from that match. What about the pre season Richmond's young guns have had and what about the inclusion of Maric, Deledio and Rance who were out injured for that match. You must remember that the tigers only won 3 matches from 14, the blues being one of those wins.
Don Freo
Guest
The 27th oldest! The prosecution rests. Even if you meant 7th oldest, that's older than Richmond which is what I said. Got any stats on who is saddest? Your posts might suggest it is Carlton.
Don Freo
Guest
Obviously. Last year has nothing to do with this year...regardless of who refers to last year. This year Carlton has close to the weakest list...they will lose lots and lots of games.
Macca
Guest
"Even last year is history; this year is when they play next, not last year or 2013." So Franko and TomC's assertions that Richmond fans will be expecting a win based on last years results are irrelevant to then Don! As for the rest of you post could you provide evidence for any of it? I will help you out on age, according to Champion data Carlton has the 27th oldest list at 24.45 Richmond the 9th at 24.19 whilst Freo has the oldest at 25.4, North the Second oldest at 25.35 & Essendon 3rd at 24.96 - I don't think the blues list age is an issue.
Don Freo
Guest
Even last year is history; this year is when they play next, not last year or 2013. Carlton is slower, weaker, older and sadder than Richmond. I think you'll need all your optimism this year. The names you keep mentioning are just plodding, average AFL footballers with the exception of Judd who should not be expected to win a premiership single-handedly any longer. Kruezer and Thomas may never make the grade again; Kruezer will have to learn to play Aussie Rules again (it's been so long) and Thomas obviously is content with his early superannuation payout. Don't think he'll be trying too hard any more. A bit of Colin Sylvia about him.
Milo
Guest
I expect Carlton to win.
Macca
Guest
Did you even read the post Don? I said " If we put aside the fact they have won just 2 of the past 13 or 14 games against the Blues and look at just the last 4" the past 4 go back just 2 seasons - 3 games in 2013 & 1 in 2014. And if you want to go back just 1 game the biggest difference in the 2 teams will be that Carlton will have Judd, Kreuzer, Casboult & Walker back in the side and full pre-seasons into Thomas & Henderson. Throw in another pre-season into the likes of Menzel & Buckley and the you have a much better Carlton side than the 1 that played the tigers last year whilst the Tigers are much the same. And 13 games goes back to round 14 2008 - so a fair way short of 10 years and plenty of players from both sides have been on the list all through that run - so the historical record would play a part (however small) mentally. Ohh and the streak started when Ratten & Wallace were coaches - not Pagan & Frawley.
Don Freo
Guest
I'm not sure if you realise but going back 13 and 14 games ago is almost 10 years. That's about 3 or 4 completely different playing lists. How games unfolded under Danny Frawley and Dennis Pagan hardly impacts on how they play tomorrow... It's 2015 Macca.
Macca
Guest
I would be confident going into a lot of games Neil - not expecting the win but confident.
Macca
Guest
Franko - If we put aside the fact they have won just 2 of the past 13 or 14 games against the Blues and look at just the last 4 we see Richmond get out to a big lead only for the Blues to storm back and lose by 5 points (and should have won if Yarran had of either slotted the goal from 35 or passed to McLean all alone in the square), Richmond get out to a big lead only to lose by 10 points, Richmond get out to a big lead only to get done by 20 points and Richmond get out to a big lead only to just hang on by 12 points (with a goal almost on the siren to make the margin that big). Given Tigers fans are also incredibly used to disappointment I doubt the would "expect" to win it, they might hope and the Tigers will go in favourites but their supporters will have plenty of doubts right up until the final siren goes. And as for last seasns positions, the blues are in much better shape now than last year.
Milo
Guest
I think theyll look at the game and think that with Judd rejuvenated and a full pre-season for Kruezer & Thomas that theyll be mighty worried.
Franko
Guest
"I don’t think Tigers fans will be expecting to win that game at all let alone “well”" I think they'll probably look at last years table and see Richmond (8th) and Carlton (13th) and probably expect the win.