It’s that time of year again, where I provide ammunition to a demographic of people who certainly don’t need it. That’s right, it’s my annual fearless predictions for the NRL season, where I like to over-supply Roarers with egg to throw on my face come October.
Last season, I came in with a paltry one correct prognostication out of five; and even that was slightly generous.
Ironically, I was lambasted for not being fearless enough when I made my original predictions, so this season I’ve strategically gone a little left field with my bold projections.
Drumroll please editors…
1. The Bulldogs will win the premiership
Loyal readers of The Roar will know I’m a Doggies fan. New readers will surmise from that statement that my opening prediction is simply a case of being bias and one-eyed. However, I honestly and objectively think the Dogs will win this year’s premiership.
My biggest question mark over the Dogs last season was their lack of creativity – especially in the halves. While Trent Hodkinson and Josh Reynolds remain at halfback and five-eighth for 2015, the addition of hooker Michael Lichaa and winger/fullback Brett Morris will add to the team’s attacking prowess significantly.
The Dogs will miss Michael Ennis’ leadership more than they think, but otherwise the squad that was on top of the ladder for the first part of the season, and also made it all the way to the grand final, remains relatively intact. Therefore, continuity will be an advantage for the team, and I see the Rabbitohs and Roosters dropping just a touch this season.
I also think a few Doggies’ players will adjust to the post-Origin period a little bit better this season, along with Des Hasler having something up his sleeve to put this squad over the top in 2015.
2. Mitchell Pearce will win the Dally M
Wow. Well, I did say ‘left field’.
The halfback has always had his detractors for his performances on the field, and last year they were joined by detractors for his ‘efforts’ off the field; specifically for the infamous boozy night out that cost him his NSW Blues jersey.
However, Pearce seemed to grow up after that incident, and even though I’ve never been his biggest fan, he was excellent at times for the Roosters in 2014, especially when running to the line.
With Sonny Bill Williams departing back to rugby and Anthony Minichiello retiring, the Chooks have a leadership vacuum this year, and Pearce has been named co-captain, along with Jake Friend.
The captaincy will bring out the best in Pearce, and he’s set for a big 2015. So big, he may have the Dally M Medal around his neck come season’s end.
3. Queensland will win the State of Origin series 3-0
Predicting Queensland to win really hurts. It also probably isn’t all that fearless of a prediction. However, suggesting it will be a straight-sets victory is.
As a New South Welshmen, it was amazing to see the Blues break the drought last year, and even the most parochial of Queenslander would probably admit they deserved it. Or at least, that the Maroons weren’t robbed or anything.
However, three indisputable facts lead me to believe that the Blues may fall back to earth with a thud this year:
One: No Jarryd Hayne.
Two: Cooper Cronk will presumably be fit for all three games.
Three: The Maroons dynasty team were the greatest rugby league outfit I’ve ever seen, and to think they won’t be highly motivated and ready to bounce back with a vengeance this year is foolish.
Though this is the one prediction I hope I’m most wrong about, it’s also the one I make with the most confidence.
4. The Penrith Panthers won’t make the eight
Some predictions make no rational sense.
The Panthers are an extremely well run organisation, have a brilliant head coach in Ivan Cleary, and a talented young roster. They were also the surprise packet of 2014, and continued their good form all the way into the finals series.
Yet I have a nagging feeling that they may have overachieved last season, and are set for a reality check in 2015.
Of course, I wrote them off all of last year, and they continued to prove me and all other doubters wrong. So perhaps I’m just an incredibly slow learner, and the Panthers are the real deal.
5. A first-grade coach will get the sack for a sex scandal
Just remember where you heard this one first.
Bonus prediction: Karmichael Hunt will play in the NRL this year.
Dr Yes
Guest
Pearce is the second youngest player in NSW SOO history (just turned 19 on debut - Fittler was 18) He went into the 'hot' spot - number 7. That's not having it a bit easy at the get-go - that's freaking insane selection. NSW were in rotten shape in the few years post-Johns (and half of his team-mates). Qld were in a great shape. NSW spine was unsettled: who were 1,6,12 between 2006 and 21011 (post Minichiello, and pre Farah settling his spot)? I remember a cpl of years where back-rowers & centres played at 6. Completely unfair on Pearce. A rather shy kid was steering around the NSW players of much size, strength, experience and ego. He should've had until 21 or 22 to develop his game (the age Sterlo & Kenny debuted, the next youngest halves). He's since stood up to the pressure and delivered at top level for a few years. Has a personal game and a top-notch team-coordination game (few halves have both). Deserves a fair go without the c**p. As do all halves, including A Reynolds. ... and remember 2014 Blues succeeded when Cronk was out injured & were blitzed on his return. Last 2 series of Pearce's Blues, they barely lost against QLD's strongest, and minus Hayne in key games.
Dr Yes
Guest
I agree, a little bias should go to the incumbents. For others to pinch the jersey, they should be required to well outplay them (in form, stats & results). It's basic common sense - development and progression is strongly required across multiple SOO series. Churn just means forever taking a couple of backward steps each year. Look at Johns, Cronk, DCE, Lockyer - all improved over a few years of SOO plus successful finals. On that point, successful players from last years finals DO deserve strong credit - I would say A Reynolds and Pearce were standouts. The doggies made the GF, so take that into account - I think J Reynolds gets credit there, but not so sure about Hodkinson. TBH I think Hodko's play in the finals last year confirmed the view of his critics - he's very solid, a good defender and kicker, but in attacking play, he's doesn't give alot (see Doggies lower points last year). He didn't strongly earn the jersey last year, it kind of fell his way, but he played solidly in the series. Will be v interesting to see how this year plays out - think the 7 jersey's still there to be won.
Luke M
Guest
To be honest I am finding hard to give a toss about Origin this year. After 8 long years we finally won one, felt the sense of relief and enjoyment, and now it is just meh.
G
Guest
Pearce may have been in a winning GF but he wasn't in the top half dozen of his sides best players, his opposite 7 won the Clive Churchill. He just tends to go missing in big games, whereas Watto performed in... um... They are very similar aren't they! Watson has won a World Cup and big test series, so I disagree with that part of your comment, however you do make a fair point as he wasn't much of a contributor in many of those, much like Pearce. I have a theory on the coaching sex scandal: Bellyache was caught in a compromising position with a female, however there really wasn't anything untoward going on, he was just teaching her how to wrestle!
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
Well, according to the reports, Hayne has been offered a futures contract. Good luck to him in trying to go the next step and make the final squad.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Unless it's the one out of 5 I get right this year!
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I have no idea what to make of this comment. Pearce has won an NRL Grand Final, and State of Origin games. Watson hasn't won any big games, has he?
G
Guest
I'd have Watto in my team over Pearce every day, at least you know he's capable of winning a big match for you.
G
Guest
So NSW should drop their only winning halves combo in the last nine years for a half who has consistently showed that whilst he is a good NRL-level player he just doesn't cut it in the Origin arena? NSW should have won a couple more series last 4 years as their forwards have won the middle battle more often than not, only for Pearce to not be able to steer them home. Hodkinson and Reynolds deserve at least another series after finally ending the streak.
G
Guest
How's Pearce going to score that many tries without SBW putting him into holes? No chance, he won't even be Roosters top Dally scorer.
Alex L
Roar Rookie
Based on earlier Ryan predictions, the Bulldogs have a snowballs.
Russell Johnson
Guest
I will make only one prediction (or maybe 3) I will be marginally less interested in the Hayne Plane than I will be about SB which is about minus 57 on the Richter Scale of involvement and motivation. It will be (second prediction) right there next to Who's being thrown out of some jungle or house and just below synchronised swimming! And that makes 100% accuracy so far, Just call me Mystic Russ! And Judging by Souths attitude to everything so far this season I think they might confound that year after affect!
Elma Dudd
Guest
Really ... Why ?
Bronco Juggernaut
Guest
My 5 predictions: 1. Cowboys to the Premiership and Minor Premiership 2. Israel Folau to announce his return to the NRL in 2016 for the Broncos (A man can only dream). 3. Billy Slater to have a blinder of a year and win the Dally M. 4. Geoff Toovey to get sacked. 5. Tigers, Eels and Titans to all finish in the 8. Manly, Panthers and Bulldogs to miss out.
Mark Young
Roar Guru
And that is why they will back on the field this month.. Same as Kirisome Auvua'a - You are entitled to be treated as innocent until found guilty by a court of law. Just venting that some blokes don't realise how fortunate they are to be on big money for playing a game and how they let down the whole code with the way they carry on.
Craig
Guest
1. Rabbitohs to go back to back 2. Blake Ferguson to drink and be stupid 3. Cowboys to blame the ref for losing their semi despite winning the penalty count and loosing by 20+ points. 4. Qld to win origin 2-1 with NSW only winning the 3rd game after A Reynolds and Keary finally get selected and steer the team to victory 5. Dragons will win the wooden spoon.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Surprise surprise Ryano tipping his Doggies to go all the way ! They will certainly be in the mix and it will come down to how far there 6 & 7 can take them. The Panthers missing the 8 is a huge call. They went within a game of the GF last year without Wallace, Peachey, Taylor and Cartwright. There is some serious strike power to come back. I think they will make the Big Dance.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Will's avatar is so perfect a reply to that one Epi.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Well that too may be an advantage. But as long as Gallen is still there being entirely ineffectual I expect a series victory.
Tom
Guest
I don't actually see QLD beating us 3-0. If we ditch reynolds and chuck the ever better pearce back in at 6, and have andrew fifita playing more part we will be a force to be reckoned with. How about david klemmer, josh jackson and aaron woods all killing it last year? Seems like robbie farrah had an average series too! I think we played worse than we could have in games 2 and especially 3. Without greg bird we will thrive! >:)