Death, taxes and change are the three certainties in life. Australian sport is no different.
Ten years ago there was no Big Bash, no A-League and a much smaller Super Rugby competition along with a smaller AFL.
In ten years time, what changes will we see in Australian sport? Here are my bold predictions.
The biggest change will be the growth of E-games. Already they are streaming huge viewer numbers and every kid has a computer. If you watched an E-tournament the format is identical to the way other codes are presented. It should be recognised some E-tournaments have more than 80 countries competing in them.
The prize money is huge by any standard today and in the future it is foreseeable E-games will pay more for team members than local football codes.
The next biggest change will be in combat sports like boxing, where decline will continue. The future of tennis and golf is difficult to determine, as the cost to develop as a player is huge and outside the top 50 players or less, income is limited.
The next biggest change will be extreme sports, taking huge numbers from Olympic sports. Iron man, BMX bikes, mountain train riding, surfing etc will take over from long jumps, shot-put and swimming.
Cricket will go through a change, with national bodies giving way to club type competitions. Twenty20 will become the main revenue earner of the game and more traditional Test matches will struggle to hold their place in the pecking order.
I believe that a Twenty20 club type competition could be set up in Australia and run for maybe five months with agreed international breaks, much like football today.
Rugby union of all the codes is today under the most pressure. There is pressure for players, revenue and media, just to hold its present position. I don’t see union being able to hold its place a slow decline in Australia with overseas growth assisting the local game.
Rugby league could be the big mover as it expands, especially with its desire to develop in the Oceania a region of almost 11 million people. These countries are currently union countries, but with the power of the NRL they could become more interested in league.
I see annual Test series in Oceania making this region a league region. Add Western Australia and growth looks positive.
Netball will continue to grow especially as women have more say in what sports are watched. This will be positive for football and basketball too.
Basketball will grow especially as the game grows at international levels, particularly with the success of Australians in the NBA.
Baseball will continue to struggle in Australia.
AFL, arguably the best managed sport in Australia, enjoys by a long way the best stadiums and has the best crowds. AFL’s biggest advantage and disadvantage is its lack of international competition.
I believe the lack of an international presence will over time hurt the AFL. Also, the other codes along with cricket and tennis will catch up to the AFL in the way the sport is run.
I think the AFL will grow but not at the same pace as some other sports.
Football’s growth will be steady and by 2025 will be a major second code in all states and territories. The two big challenges for football are converting the player base and their connections to football supporters, and improving the technical standards at park levels today.
If media deals are a measurement of growth, football will have very solid future.
To summarise, we will see a fairly steep decline in many Olympic sports, with E-games and extreme sports to enjoy healthy growth. Of the major team sports I see the most growth in Twenty20 cricket, football, rugby league and netball, with basketball and AFL growing but at a slower place.
Union will struggle to hold its current popularity. Boxing and similar combat sports will continue to decline, with tennis and golf also experiencing a slow decline.
Mick
Guest
I hope rugby league is the biggest mover as well. It can move back to England where it belongs, no room for it here.
Johnno
Guest
"The next biggest change will be extreme sports, taking huge numbers from Olympic sports. Iron man, BMX bikes, mountain train riding, surfing etc will take over from long jumps, shot-put and swimming." -Disagree with a lot of that part. Iron man has been on the decline since the end of the 90's. I can't see thousands of kids with no access to beaches on a regular basis suddenly flocking down to the beach to become nippers after watching Bondi Rescue. BMX bikes as well, had mix reactions at the Olympics, and BMX was way bigger in the 70's and 80's,hardly a sport on the rise. Mountain train riding what is that do you mean horses or bikes. Either way focusing on the bikes, most kids in OZ don't have access to mountains to ride bikes on, let alone at an elite level. Sufring has got bigger over time, but won't be huge in 10 years. Long jump,shot was never that big anyway. But if this article predicts iron man, BMX,surfing, mountain biking, are gonna suddenly gonna catapult swimming then that's deluded. Golf and Tennis face interesting futures, it might be more elite sport, but then again as more money continues to be invested in each sport, maybe the middle-ranked players may make some cash. In the past both sports have always had the top 100-200 players on the tour etc, and may living cheaply, but times are changing as travel costs rise every year in those sports. But both sports I have not doubt will have a future especially for the top 50 players etc, as new markets open for these sports. Tennis especially has more potential than golf, as it's cheaper to put up 5-tennis courts club somewhere, than putting up a 9-hole golf course. But to get good at either sport (Golf +Tennis) there expensive sports and require either a lot of private funding from rich parents or sponsors, or being sent to live-in boarding school style, tennis academies which is what the talented kids usually do.
Midfielder
Guest
PB You may be right but I see the combative sports in decline they will always have a hard core base but the days of boxing being the biggest sport are long gone maybe as far back as the mid 60's when boxing was a key sport...
chris
Guest
I see Australia having 3 codes of Football like Ireland with AFL being the national code but Soccer being the international code and both Rugbys becoming one be in the middle...happy days.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Just a little teaser - UFC has gained access to Victoria - watch it grow!! (don't write off 'combat' sports - there's a logical pathway to the Hunger Games) When the AFL buys out Etihad early watch AFL really convert on potential. The challenge as always for all codes is managing player salaries. The AFL is able might morph into a 2 division comp with 19th team in Tassie and a 20th team from somewhere - perhaps NT/FNQ/PNG. The eternal RL vs RU battle - the irony still is internationally RU has it but domestically RL has it. Makes it hard for one to win the battle and is an eternal weight holding back the other. The A-League needs to find better owners.