In the midst of one the craziest starts to an NFL free agency period there was one burning question that just wouldn’t go away.
What exactly is Philadelphia Eagles coach Chip Kelly thinking?
On a day featuring massive trades, shock retirements, a host of enthralling free agency moves and the return of Darrelle Revis to the Big Apple, Charles ‘Chip’ Kelly pulled off a positively baffling blockbuster trade for the ages.
He sent likely starting quarterback Nick Foles to the St Louis Rams for Sam Bradford.
Quarterback trades are rare, trades featuring starting quarterbacks like hen’s teeth.
There are a number of other draft picks and conditions involved, but I won’t bore you with any of the minor details.
The bottom line is Kelly swapped Foles, who is 14-4 since replacing Michael Vick, for Bradford, who is coming off his second straight season-ending ACL injury.
The NFL watching world responded with amazement. The trade surprised everyone and once a moment had passed for evaluation the move made even less sense.
Let’s excuse for a moment the fact that Bradford is older than Foles, that he has never had a season like the one Foles enjoyed under Kelly in 2013 and that he is far more expensive than Foles.
Foles surpassed Vick in 2013 and threw 27 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. He went to the Pro Bowl after the 2013 season and was named offensive MVP after the game.
Playing behind an injury-riddled offensive line in 2014, Foles’ numbers weren’t as good. He tossed 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but his record was 6-2.
Meanwhile, Bradford’s record in St Louis was 18-30-1.
Selected no 1. overall in 2010 out of Oklahoma, Bradford has never even led the Rams to a winning season let alone the playoffs, making him a straight up bust at this stage of his career.
Bradford was set to make $13 million for 2015, while Foles was scheduled to earn $1.52 million in the final season of his rookie contract.
On paper the trade makes all the sense in the world for St Louis and none for the Eagles.
Let’s even pretend that Bradford hasn’t had a horror injury history, which includes the two ACL tears in the same left knee, a high ankle sprain and shoulder problems.
If you’re willing to ignore all that you can’t ignore that Bradford doesn’t even fit into Kelly’s spread-out, up-tempo style of offense.
He is not particularly mobile, once rushing for minus 18 yards in a college season and there is a question mark on his durability, making Kelly’s option routes, roll-outs and play-actions dicey calls.
Those who watched Bradford play in college will recall he has experience running a spread offense. But the idea that because he did it at Oklahoma means he will be able to run Chip Kelly’s offense is ridiculous. The offenses are not the same. And besides, that was six years ago.
So what was Kelly thinking? Is he a revolutionary thinker? Does he trust his offensive scheme so much that he figures he can plug any player in there and have success? Or is the Foles-Bradford trade part of a much bigger picture?
Kelly has been particularly trigger-happy since taking the head-coaching job in Philadelphia. He cut ties with the team’s best receiver since Terrell Owens, DeSean Jackson, traded star running back and NFL’s 2013 leading rusher LeSean McCoy to Buffalo and let receiver Jeremy Maclin leave for Kansas City.
All head-scratching decisions that frustrated those in Philly. The Jackson move came before last season, but the rest transpired in the last few weeks. So why is Kelly gutting the Eagles roster, specifically the offense, all of a sudden. Well, because Kelly has finally been given full control of personnel decisions, a level of power only currently granted to Super Bowl coaches Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll.
In January, Kelly won a power struggle with general manager Howie Roseman. Roseman got a raise and a new title, but this is now Kelly’s team from top to bottom.
And Kelly likes players who went to the school where he made his name – Oregon.
On Wednesday, defensive back Walter Thurmond became the 10th former Oregon Duck brought into the fold by Chip Kelly since he took over the team.
And there are some analysts who say Kelly is not done adding Ducks to his roster. In fact, persistent rumours suggest Kelly will attempt to trade up to select Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota at the 2015 draft.
Could Bradford, as well as the 20th overall pick and a few others, be used as a bargaining chip in order to convince Tampa, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland or Washington to give up their spot?
It is unlikely. In fact, with Bradford’s injury history you could argue Foles was the more valuable asset. Why not keep him and attempt to use him as trade fodder?
The money left on their contracts makes Foles even more favourable. At this stage of his career, recovering form his second season-ending ACL injury, Bradford is as much an unknown quantity as Mariota or any of the quarterbacks in the draft.
No one knows what Bradford will be able to offer, at least with Mariota and co they have much more of an upside. Mariota is far more suited to Kelly’s offensive scheme than Bradford, but he is unlikely to still be on the board when the Eagles pick at 20.
So, what is Kelly hoping for? That he has the pieces to move up? That Tampa Bay will put all their faith in Bradford? That the Jags will give up on Blake Bortles after one season? That the Raiders will do the same with Derek Carr? It’s just not going to happen.
The Bradford-Foles trade and the other off-season moves prove Kelly believes his offense is so potent any player can be slotted in and the team will have success.
Using this logic, Kelly is strengthening the defensive side of the ball after giving up 400 points in 2014, good enough for 22nd in the NFL. Or maybe Kelly is thinking something else altogether. Who knows? Not me.
Nan
Guest
The question is zero or hero. Either he did everything right otherwise they will kiss him goodbye but he could be the new Dick Vermeil casting someone like Papale. There is no safe prediction but a lot of training work, maybe he wants to proof free agency can win. there is no other logical reason. He is thinking. tebow Bradford Sachez instead of Nick. Hey that sounds crazy. Maybe next season will be 8-8 or something like a draw in winning and loosing noone knows. I hope he is doing right and surprise the so called experts by prooving them wrong. He will not be sacked if he get the Eagles to the playoffs. Chip Kelly and no huddle is linked closely, free agency and greatness of chip kelly we have to wait and hope like all eagle fans or like all giants laugh at him. Eagles only have to beat Giants everything else is not as important as this game. Chip Kelly could save his job. Let him suprise us all.
joe
Guest
The Demarco Murray signing is a strange one,he's been injury prone & still is a fumble machine.He had a great season last year (behind a dominant O-line) but theres a lot of wear & tear on him as well.Eagles are paying him for past performance,I think he begins his decline sooner rather than later. I give up trying to figure it out.Good luck to them
Sam Rigney
Expert
How can you call these "logical roster moves" and say "Kelly knows exactly what he is doing". These are some of the most shocking NFL trades and free agency moves in recent memory, according to, well, EVERYBODY who covers the NFL.
Sam Rigney
Expert
Kelly has since signed DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews. So, we thought that he didn't want to spend big money at running back when he dealt LeSean McCoy away, but now he's given out almost $30 million in guaranteed money to secure a three-headed monster at running back.
joe
Guest
Hey Clyde its good to see someone else on here like yourself using commonsense & logic in regard to RBs & WRs in the NFL Productive RBs & WRs are a dime a dozen.You can get them anywhere & for the most part they're all interchangeable.Theres some guys,Adrian Peterson is one,who is clearly just in a class of his own.But after him,the rest of the RBs in the NFL are all expendable if their price is too high. The smart teams know this (Ravens,Pats,Giants,Steelers are good examples) & dont overpay for them. The dumb teams do.Miami had the highest paid group of WRs in the NFL last season. I see people freaking out cause McCoy & Maclin are gone.McCoy is a good RB,but at $10 mil per? No thanks,let him walk you can get adequate RB talent to match what he gave you,& for far less money. Maclin is a good WR,but at $11 mil per? Absolutely NO WAY Jeremy Maclin should be in that top tier pay grade.KC was desperate & overpaid for him.The Eagles were smart to let him walk
Ash
Guest
Philly 4-12 in 2015 with these shockers of trades.
Clyde
Guest
Another 'OMG. Wow. Just wow. I can't even.' Chip Kelly article. Bradford has great accuracy and is a good decision maker which is exactly what Kelly wants from his QB. I'd expect his production to outmatch what Vick/Foles/Sanchez produced in the previous 2 years. The McCoy deal was excellent business. Get rid of a poor locker room guy whose stats were regressing and basically replace him with Alonso and Maxwell, significantly strengthening the D. RB and WR are the two most overrated potions in football, only fantasy gimps stress over them. Expect Kelly to add to both positions in the draft. On the Ducks connection it makes perfect sense that Kelly would add former Oregon players. Most of these guys are back-ups in any case so Kelly is more concerned with character and knowing that they buy into his his system. With regards to the injury concerns remember that Kelly has a state of the art sports science department so I think it's safe to assume due diligence is being done. In fact I think an Australian company has been involved with Kelly in his player monitoring. Somewhat surprised fans and the media have gone into skirt lifting mode over these logical roster moves. Those who follow analytics and scheme development or just watch Bill Belichik at work can see Kelly knows exactly what he's doing.
Steve
Guest
Agree about preferring to stay with the Rams, that's where I'd rather be as well as a QB right now. That part of my comment was more a reference to Bradford's 'tradeability' vs Foles. I guess (despite the contract terms etc) I just don't know why you'd be managing the roster the way kelly is if you aren't planning a big move at the draft (probably why I'm not a nfl coach/GM!).
joe
Guest
Ryan Matthews is a china doll.Even going back to his days at Fresno St he had injury issues.He'll be effective for 4 or 5 games for Philly before he goes down Kiko Alonso,we'll see.The guy was a standout in his rookie season with Buffalo before getting hurt. But the Eagles arent on the hook for a whole lot with Alonso.He isnt a big cap hit,even if he never plays a snap for Philly. Shady McCoy,the guy has been a stud.But he is going into his 7th NFL season,he'll be 27 when training camp begins.McCoy was ran nonstop by Dave Wannstedt when he was at PITT.In his 2 seasons there he had almost 600 carries in addition to his receiving yards. So you're talking $10 mil per for a 27 yr old RB,heading into his 9th season of top level football & in all likelihood his best days behind him.Thats a scenario that only dumb,loser teams opt to get involved with (Bills,Jets,Raiders to name a few) McCoy wont have near to the success in Buffalo he had with Philly in large part because of the system.He is going from two top flight offensive coaches in Andy Reid & then Chip Kelly to Rex Ryan, who's teams philosophies are to have a great defense & the offense is an afterthought.
Sam Rigney
Expert
I don't know if I agree with you about the McCoy trade. I think Buffalo got an absolute steal. The NFL's leading rusher in 2013, a stud of a running back in his prime at 26 for a linebacker who, like Bradford, is coming off season-ending ACL injury and is an unknown quantity. See my comment below re the conditions in the Bradford trade that makes me think they are going to start the season with him. So, Bradford has an ACL injury, Alonso has an ACL injury and Matthews five years in the league have been ravaged with injuries. He missed 10 games last season with an MCL injury and an ankle injury.
Sam Rigney
Expert
The thing about the Eagles possibly moving up in the draft to get a QB which doesn't make sense is that if Kelly is going to use Bradford as a bargaining chip then why waist all that time putting conditions in his contract about how many games he plays equalling a certain draft pick etc. In fact, those conditions mean that Kelly is looking to start with him in Week 1. The other thing about Bradford, as you say, is that he cops a lot of flack and has never had a really good supporting cast around him. Well, he has got even less at Philly - Riley Cooper and Jordan Matthews are his receivers and the injury prone Ryan Matthews is his running back. I'd prefer what he had in St Louis.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Chip Kelly sure is his own man, it is a head scratching trade. That said as the other guys have mentioned, perhaps this is one piece of a larger trade / draft puzzle. Bradford when fit is a pretty handy QB, I wouldn't write him off. The Iggles will have to give up the farm to land Mariota and not sure how much leverage / currency Bradford brings to a potential trade. Surely you use Foles as leverage who has proved to be a useful QB thus far. Interestingly Frank Gore did an about face with Philly and signed with the Colts.
Steve
Guest
Certainly have been some interesting moves over the last couple of days. Kelly clearly wants Mariota and is setting up the best pieces (a decent, if injury prone QB, and some good draft picks) to be in a position to trade for him. Bradford gets a lot of criticism, but in the years he has been fit he's had no help at the Rams. I think he could easily be a top 10 QB given the right supporting cast and is probably a better system fit for most teams (when compared to foles) when it comes to making a trade.
joe
Guest
The Shady McCoy trade to Buffalo was a good one for Philly,I have no problem with it. They unloaded a RB with maybe 2 good years left in him making $10 mil per season & got a solid defensive player in return who makes just under a million this season They let Maclin go & even though I like Maclin,he isnt a #1 WR yet KC is paying him #1 WR money at $11 million per..no way Philly was gonna match that amount.KC was desperate & overpaid,as we've seen plenty of teams do already in free agency,overpay for players. I agree the Foles for Bradford trade is a headscratcher. It makes no sense but I have to believe this isnt the end game for Philly. Theres something else going to happen,we may not know what it is for quite awhile.But I doubt Chip Kelly is putting all his eggs in one basket with Sam Bradford as his #1 QB Its a very unusual trade,especially giving up a 2nd round pick next season,although it is conditional. The Eagles signed Ryan Matthews today & he is another guy who is always injured. Should be interesting going forward to see their next move(s)